Aug 13, 2026 earnings call — Guidance cut and IDIQ-driven revenue shift
York cut full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $375 million to $405 million, citing IDIQ timing and supply chain delays.
Revenue $0.1B (est $0.1B) · EPS $-0.31 (est $-0.17)
Key quotes
"But once IDIQs are awarded, task orders can be awarded in a more rapid succession without the need for follow-on competitive award cycles."
"As Dirk mentioned earlier, we are bringing down our full year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $375 million to $405 million."
"ALL.SPACE and our other subsidiaries are expected to contribute roughly 10% to 15% of 2026 revenue."
Analyst Q&A 7
Government contract size and pipeline
Q (Citi): They asked how big and how the new government contracts might develop over time. They also asked if the $11.5 billion pipeline can be pursued with current capabilities or needs M&A.
A: Management said the President's budget gives the best indicator of how much the government plans to spend and that many awards are coming from the '25 and '26 budgets with '27 showing trajectory. They also said the $11.5 billion is an identified pipeline of specific opportunities and can be pursued with current capabilities with no further acquisitions required.
"So right now, that pipeline is identified pipeline." — Dirk Wallinger (CEO)
Backlog conversion and supply chain impact
Q (JPMorgan): They asked why less backlog appears to be converting to revenue this year and how much is due to supply chain problems versus acquisitions adding revenue. They wanted help sizing the impact of supply chain delays on 2026 revenue.
A: Management said many RFPs came in rapid succession and about 30% of expected 2026 revenue was a 'go-get' that shifted to the right; revenue recognition for large satellite programs is spread over about three years which affects timing. They added that supply chain issues pushed some amounts into 2027 and that acquisition revenue partly offsets the delay.
"Look, generally, what's occurred is that there was more of a rapid succession of RFPs and 30% of that, we thought that we would be able to contribute to revenue in '26." — Dirk Wallinger (CEO)
Space Data Network demo contract
Q (Joshua Korn · Wells Fargo): They asked for color on the recently announced Space Data Network connectivity demo OTAs and if the opportunity set in that program changed since the last call.
A: Management said the announcement came just before the call and confirmed those were OTAs under the Space Data Network. They said the government is seeking proven providers, there will be competition, FolioObs helped build the transport layer and is well positioned, and they expect more public information in the coming weeks.
"So I can confirm that they were OTAs under Space Data Network." — Dirk Wallinger (CEO)
How revenue cut affects EBITDA
Q (Adam Samuelson · Jefferies): They asked how the revenue cut should inform decremental margin and whether Q2 EBITDA is a guide for the second half, including any cost pressure from recent acquisitions.
A: Management said gross profit margin is expected to remain around the mid-20% range. They suggested using that gross margin and the revenue reduction to get a directional sense of EBITDA.
"As I talked about in our -- in the prepared remarks, we do think the gross profit margin is going to hang in there around the mid-20% range." — Brian Frantz (CFO)
Revenue delay causes and timing
Q (Austin Moeller · Canaccord): They asked how much of the revenue push into 2027 was due to later IDIQ award timing versus supply chain delays, and when affected satellite programs might be ready. They also asked about margin outlook into 2027.
A: Management said the delay was roughly split between supply chain pushouts and the timing of new revenue, each contributing about equally. They said they have not provided more detail and are not yet prepared to discuss 2027 margins or revenue timing.
"I mean certainly, between the supply chain pushing out as well as the new revenue, I mean, those things are about equal in terms of how they are." — Brian Frantz (CFO)
Real-time delivery and ALL.SPACE uses
Q (Ryan Koontz · Needham): They asked for an update on the short-term real-time delivery opportunity and on ALL.SPACE use cases, sales channels, and whether ALL.SPACE brings backlog.
A: Management said they are building inventory to shorten delivery times and increase win probability; IPO proceeds helped fund that inventory and they are already allocating inventory to won programs. They also said ALL.SPACE continues to win terminal contracts, supports assured communications for unmanned systems, and that ALL.SPACE backlog was not included as of June 30 but will show a small increase in Q3.
"The nice part is that as we are progressing through these IDIQs and task orders, we now can kind of bucket those into our inventory orders." — Dirk Wallinger (CEO)
Commercial pipeline mission types
Q (Goldman Sachs): They asked what mission types are in the commercial pipeline and what drives margin differences versus government work.
A: Management said the commercial pipeline includes earth observation (visible, SAR, infrared) and services that used to be government-run, like ISS services, precise GPS, and weather, but they could not be more specific. They added that commercial margins are a little lower than some government contracts but not enough to materially change the overall mix.
"One of the sample cases that could be worked or is in that pipeline is earth observation." — Dirk Wallinger (CEO)