Oct 29, 2026 earnings call — Shale ramp-up and strong Q3 results
Revenue reached $6.6 billion in Q3, up 41% from last year.
Revenue $6.4B (est $5.6B) · EPS $3.00 (est $1.92)
Key quotes
"If we exclude the conventional assets in process of divestment, about 95% of our oil output would have come from shale."
"Cash generation was once again very strong, with free cash flow reaching $901 million, the second highest level in our history."
"Regarding our portfolio optimization strategy, this month, we acquired the remaining 25% stake in YPF Luz, obtaining full control of the company for an attractive valuation of $430 million."
Analyst Q&A 9
speeding up production next year
Q (Michael Furrow · Pickering Energy Partners): What would prevent YPF from accelerating upstream activity next year with VMOS coming online? Also asked about inflation effects on costs like steel and diesel in Argentina.
A: Management said they are in a very good financial position to speed up but will not disclose a number until the board approves the 2027 budget. They will explain details in April and said Vaca Muerta daily production was 252,330 bbl as a record high. On inflation, they said Argentina's inflation is low compared with history and is not a main concern for their business.
"For next year, we are in a very good financial position to speed up." — Horacio Marín (CEO·CHAIR)
longer well length and Dec output
Q (Jacob Roberts · TPH): Where can you extend lateral lengths further and how much of the 2027 program could use longer laterals? Also asked about the December exit production rate and wells tied in during Q4.
A: They said their routine lateral is 3,500 meters and they previously had about 2,800 meters; records such as 4,800 meters occur near area limits and increase knowledge. They expect to incrementally push beyond 3,500 meters (perhaps ~200 meters more next year) as teams gain experience. On exit rate, management indicated a December average could be about 255,000 bpd and noted they are more unconventional now (about 95%).
"If you are not in a limit of a area, you will see that in general, our wells are 3,500 lateral." — Horacio Marín (CEO·CHAIR)
north vs south wells; EXIM financing
Q (Bruno Montanari · Morgan Stanley): How does the Northern hub compare with the core shale hub on productivity and well economics? And what needs to happen for the US EXIM Bank proposal to become binding?
A: They said northern-hub wells are very good but have a slightly lower EUR than the south (about 10% less). For the EXIM financing, they have a letter of intent and expect final closing by about mid next year, and they said there is no doubt they will have up to the $6 billion; FID for the LNG is scheduled for November 26th in Argentina.
"I would say 10% less, no more than that." — Horacio Marín (CEO·CHAIR)
fuel pricing and consumer buffer
Q (George Gasztowtt · Latin): With the gap to import parity widening ~20%, how much of the consumer buffer remains to be recovered and what is the outlook for the next quarters under your consumer buffer framework?
A: They said YPF is keeping a consumer buffer and tracks pump prices in real time across the country. When prices rise they finance consumers; when prices fall they collect back the financed amounts. They also said demand has become elastic outside Buenos Aires so they cannot keep increasing prices without hurting demand.
"When the price goes down, we are going to maintain the price of gasoline, and there we are going to collect." — Horacio Marín (CEO·CHAIR)
asset sales and longer laterals
Q (Leonardo Marcondes · BofA): When will the upstream asset sale program be completed and which assets remain for sale? Also where were the longer-lateral wells drilled and how much more productive are they (EUR)?
A: Management did not give specific timing for asset sales and said they will provide fuller details in April, noting they are accelerating development but are limited by evacuation and facilities bottlenecks. On longer laterals, they said those wells have higher EUR and profitability when above 3,500 meters, but EUR gains are not linear and later fracture stages can yield lower incremental EUR.
"In general, our EUR, you can extrapolate when you are more than 3,500, you make, I would say, the additional investment and the profitability increase." — Horacio Marín (CEO·CHAIR)
M&A plans and YPF Luz
Q (Milene Carvalho · JPMorgan): Given strong 2026 cash flow, should we expect more M&A in Vaca Muerta, diversification, or focus on the LNG project?
A: They said they bought full blocks and YPF Luz because of future energy opportunities. YPF Luz was acquired to support delivering energy (for example to data centers) using YPF's upstream strength. They will pursue M&A in core Vaca Muerta only when it makes financial sense and while balancing investments for LNG.
"Always, you have when there are opportunities and M&A in Argentina and Vaca Muerta that are in the core and within the core that will make more profits for the shareholders, we will see." — Horacio Marín (CEO·CHAIR)
rigs and project impact on production
Q (Andrés Cardona · Citi): How will LLL Oil RIGI and Bajo del Toro projects affect 2027 production growth? Any color on the impact?
A: They said today they have 18 rigs plus one going to Mendoza and expect to have 22 rigs by February. They asked investors to wait for an April update when they will provide full development details and production outlook. They noted north projects have partners (so partner investment pace can differ) while south is 100% YPF and they aim to reduce chokes to protect EUR.
"Today we have 18 rigs and one rig that is going to Mendoza. So in February, we are going to have 22 rigs." — Horacio Marín (CEO·CHAIR)
YPF Luz deal rationale and Metrogas payment
Q (Daniel Guardiola · BTG Pactual): What was the strategic and financial rationale for acquiring the YPF Luz minority stake? Was there any contractual put, liquidity obligation, or other arrangement? And what is the payment schedule for the remaining $700 million for Metrogas?
A: Pedro said there was no contractual put option obligation for the YPF Luz deal. The strategic rationale was the expected future of the electricity sector and they found an attractive valuation in negotiations with GE Vernova. For Metrogas, they expect final approval from the ENRE and, once approved, will close and receive the remaining $700 million.
"there was no contractual put option obligation for the deal." — Pedro Kearney
Brent discounts and VMOS timing
Q (Guilherme Martins · Goldman Sachs): Any color on Brent discounts going into Q4 given volatility in ICE vs Dated Brent and freight? And with VMOS going online early next year, how should we think about quarter-by-quarter production growth next year?
A: He said he has no idea what Brent discounts will do and that nobody knows given the conflict and high freight (freight is "10 times" normal). On VMOS, they will finish on schedule and start filling pipes in January, expecting exports to start in March; export volumes will follow the approved 2027 budget, which is not yet approved.
"And on January, we will start to fill all pipes, and we are expecting that in March, everybody will start exporting." — Horacio Marín (CEO·CHAIR)