Oct 29, 2026 earnings call — New five-year investment plan
Xcel unveiled a $70 billion five-year capital plan and narrowed 2026 ongoing earnings guidance to $4.10 to $4.16 per share.
Revenue $4.2B (est $4.3B) · EPS $1.52 (est $1.39)
Key quotes
"Today, we're introducing an updated $70 billion five-year investment plan designed to serve increasing energy demand to make needed investments to strengthen and modernize our transmission and distribution systems, to provide a cleaner and more sustainable energy portfolio, and to keep energy safe, reliable, and affordable for all of our customers."
"Looking forward, we remain on track to sign ESAs for an additional 1 GW of data centers by the end of 2026 and another 3 GW by the end of 2027."
"Our innovative Steel for Fuel program that was started in 2017 is on pace to save customers a total of approximately $18 billion from PTCs and avoided fuel costs by 2031."
Analyst Q&A 10
EPS vs rate-base growth
Q (Nicholas Campanella · Barclays): Analyst asked what "10%+" EPS growth means in coming years and whether some years could be higher given rate-base growth.
A: Management said the rule of thumb is a 200 to 250 basis point gap between rate-base growth and EPS, and they gave year examples showing varied shaping and strong back-end growth with customer affordability focus.
"If you take our current five-year plan, we have 11% rate-based growth and 9%+ EPS growth, so we are on the inside of that rule of thumb." — Brian Van Abel (CFO)
Signing data center gigawatt
Q (Carly Davenport · Goldman Sachs): Analyst asked confidence in signing another 1 GW by year-end and progress toward the 3 GW 2027 target.
A: Management said they are in active ESA negotiations with a large counterparty and are focused on delivering generation and affordability. They see biggest near-term opportunities in the Upper Midwest and SPS and expect Colorado later cycle.
"When I look at our pipeline at where we are in the stage gate of each of our, kind of, think about our different high probability loads, really kind of the biggest opportunities right now are in the Upper Midwest and SPS, as we talked about." — Brian Van Abel (CFO)
Productive capital in Colorado
Q (Jeremy Tonet · JPMorgan): Analyst wanted the firm's view on whether CapEx in Colorado is productive and how that factors into the capital plan; also asked about the Michigan asset sale and equity needs.
A: Management said all their CapEx is productive and prioritized for safety, reliability, load growth and wildfire mitigation. On Michigan, they said it's a very small part of rate base, with confidential price, regulatory filings ongoing and expected close timing.
"I would say all of our CapEx is productive." — Brian Van Abel (CFO)
Equity lag and data centers
Q (Julien Dumoulin-Smith · Jefferies): Analyst asked to re-explain the 200-250 basis point EPS lag rule and about FFO-to-debt improvements and data center tax/exemption effects.
A: Management said the rule of thumb still holds but can be point-sensitive by year; their FFO-to-debt improves into 2030-2031 giving flexibility while keeping strong balance sheet targets. They said distribution-level data center opportunities are developing and Colorado remains competitive despite sales tax differences.
"Just assume some of those distribution level opportunities are built into our plan, but they're developing, right?" — Brian Van Abel (CFO)
Pipeline size and policy priorities
Q (Richard Sunderland · Truist): Analyst asked how much near-term CapEx could be added from data centers and the NSP RFP, and what policy priorities matter next year.
A: Management gave a rule of thumb that each $1 billion of CapEx adds 15 to 20 basis points to rate-base CAGR and said data centers both add capital and affordability benefits. They listed federal and state policy work on siting, permitting, and wildfire mitigation as key priorities for 2027.
"You can expect us to keep working at our state levels to make sure that we can build the infrastructure that we need to do across our service territories." — Bob Frenzel (CEO·CHAIR)
SPS growth runway
Q (Sophie Karp · KeyBanc): Analyst asked how much runway SPS has to keep growing and visibility there; also asked if a combined-cycle gas plant could be needed.
A: Management said SPS covers the Permian and Delaware basins with strong oil & gas and hyperscaler interest, plus electrification in the oil patch driving sales. On combined-cycle, they said CCGT could make sense in the future if gas prices and forward curves change.
"We serve a huge swath of the Permian and the Delaware basins, a large commercial industrial customer base, maybe the most prolific region in the U.S." — Bob Frenzel (CEO·CHAIR)
Colorado growth and PSCo outlook
Q (Steve D'Ambrisi · RBC): Analyst asked whether Minnesota-style tax-credit approaches can be used elsewhere and what PSCo growth looks like given lower rate-base CAGR.
A: Management said Minnesota's use of storage ITC is a useful tool and they will consider it elsewhere to manage affordability. For Colorado/PSCo, they see generation and transmission needs tied to large loads and RFPs, and called current plan conservative versus potential.
"As I think about Colorado, yes, we have a PSCo RFP in process." — Bob Frenzel (CEO·CHAIR)
Equity ratio for extra CapEx
Q (Steve Fleishman · Wolfe): Analyst asked how to think about the proper equity ratio if more CapEx is added beyond the plan.
A: Management reiterated a rule of thumb of 40% equity for incremental capital in the near term, noted improving metrics in 2030-2031 could allow less than 40% then, and stressed maintaining a strong balance sheet and a 17% FFO-to-debt target.
"We've generally set a rule of thumb around 40% equity for incremental capital." — Brian Van Abel (CFO)
2027 sales growth drivers
Q (Nick Amicucci · Evercore): Analyst asked whether 2027's higher 5% sales growth is from already operating customers ramping, committed customers, or oil & gas electrification.
A: Management said the 5% is primarily driven by SPS due to a large load energizing this quarter and annualization of oil and gas load; Colorado and Minnesota contribute a little from data center energization, but SPS is the main driver.
"That 5%, it is primarily driven by SPS when I look at my annual numbers." — Brian Van Abel (CFO)
Drivers of transmission CapEx
Q (Paul Patterson · Glenrock Associates): Analyst asked whether the transmission increase in 2029-2030 is driven by renewables, demand, or grid upgrades.
A: Management said much of the transmission increase is driven by 765kV projects, particularly in SPS where they added another large 765 into the plan, and also some 765 capital in Minnesota; not primarily large-load driven.
"Yeah, Paul, a lot of that is driven by our 765s, particularly in SPS as we rolled another large one into the plan." — Brian Van Abel (CFO)