Oct 13, 2026 earnings call — Wells Fargo growth, NII guidance and AI investments
Fourth quarter net interest income expected about $13 billion; full year NII guidance $50 billion, plus or minus.
Revenue $21.9B (est $22.3B) · EPS $1.87 (est $1.85) · Next-quarter revenue outlook $50.0B
Key quotes
"We generated strong growth in loans and deposits throughout 2026 with third quarter average loans and average deposits both up 11% from a year ago."
"We're devoting significant management time and resources to building AI capabilities and drive value."
"During the third quarter, we increased our common stock dividend to $0.50 per share and repurchased $2.5 billion of common stock."
Analyst Q&A 10
Net interest income drivers and markets split
Q (John McDonald · Truist): Analyst asked which items drive NII growth in Q4 and how markets NII versus non-markets NII split into the $50 billion full-year target. He asked for the fourth quarter split and whether the prior $48 billion plus $2 billion assumption still holds.
A: Management said aggregate NIM stabilized in Q3, with NIM ex markets increasing slightly, and they expect NIM to be flat in Q4 versus Q3. They said markets NII will be slightly below $2 billion, around $1.8-ish billion, and the remainder will come from non-markets NII to reach the full-year $50 billion.
"And what I was saying on markets NII is, as you go into this rising rate environment, we're asset sensitive on the banking book." — Michael Santomassimo (CFO)
Customer health and AI moving deposits
Q (TD Cowen): Analyst asked how sustained higher rates change customer health and commercial demand, and whether AI agents will make it easier to move idle cash to higher-yield accounts, reducing deposit stickiness.
A: Management said consumer credit profiles are not deteriorating and wages and employment are supporting activity, so resilience looks good. On AI and deposit movement, they said high-rate alternatives already exist and moving money via agents to unknown institutions is unlikely to cause mass outflows in the near term.
"High-rate alternatives exist today, they've existed for a long time." — Charles Scharf (CEO)
Balance sheet growth and capital use
Q (Kenneth Usdin · Autonomous): Analyst asked whether the bank is changing what it puts on the balance sheet given AOCI, CET1, TCE movements and slower RWA growth, and how that affects capital and buybacks. He also asked about deposit betas vs prior cycle.
A: Management said they are not thinking differently about growth and continue to optimize balance sheet deployment, including lowering RWA footprint for some market activities. They reiterated growth focus in cards, auto, commercial loans and markets, and said deposit betas by component should be similar to the last cycle though aggregate beta may shift with mix.
"But again, we can continue to optimize as we deploy the balance sheet." — Michael Santomassimo (CFO)
Monetization and tokenized deposits use
Q (Ebrahim Poonawala · BofA): Analyst asked where investments (business banking, wealth, payments) are already monetizing and where momentum should build in 12–24 months. He also asked about tokenization and tokenized deposits' adoption and size of opportunity.
A: Management said they see revenue and account growth across most businesses and expect continued acceleration in consumer, card, auto and commercial bank as investments roll through. On tokenized deposits, they said the technology improves cross-border payments now (in production, small volume) and can deliver beneficiary payments in 2 minutes or less, expanding addressable market and optionality for other tokenization use cases.
"And I think what this allows us to do is completely change that experience." — Michael Santomassimo (CFO)
Deposit mix and expense outlook
Q (Manan Gosalia · Morgan Stanley): Analyst asked when deposit mix should improve toward more noninterest-bearing balances and whether the Q4 expense guide is just timing or a good baseline for next year.
A: Management said focus should be on deposit dollar growth; interest-bearing commercial deposits will grow faster for a while while consumer and treasury management growth will bring more noninterest-bearing balances over time. On expenses, they said Q4 typically steps up vs Q3 and the company is pursuing efficiencies while reinvesting, so Q4 is not the right single jumping-off point for next year's budget.
"I think you'll see interest-bearing still grow at a faster clip for a while as we continue to deepen with many of our clients." — Michael Santomassimo (CFO)
Capital targets and buyback priority
Q (L. Erika Penala · UBS): Analyst asked how to think about buybacks given current CET1 at 10% and Moody's comment on operating at low end being credit negative, and whether that affects capital decisions.
A: Management said Moody's comment should be taken in context and not overread; they plan to manage capital between 10% and 10.5% and will use buybacks as a lever after assessing growth opportunities and risks each quarter. They said they expect capacity over time to buy back substantial stock while managing capital and ratings.
"as you look at like our capital priorities and the way we're going to manage capital, I think we said it in our remarks again, we plan to manage capital between 10% and 10.5%" — Michael Santomassimo (CFO)
Markets and banking revenue role
Q (Christopher McGratty · KBW): Analyst asked whether markets and banking being smaller ROTCE P&L drivers is intentional or whether allocation may change to hit the 17%–18% ROE target.
A: Management clarified those businesses are important contributors to improving ROTCE and will add to company returns as they grow. They also said markets and IB are a smaller share of total revenues, so big market events or single large deals will not move the firm-wide quarterly revenue as much as for some peers.
"What I was just trying to say was that when you look at our company, we have like $80 billion in revenues." — Charles Scharf (CEO)
Card seasoning and auto lending returns
Q (Matthew O'Connor · Deutsche Bank): Analyst asked how far along card promos are in seasoning and when profitability from those vintages will flow in. He also asked how Wells keeps returns in auto lending while others pull back.
A: Management said early vintages are maturing as expected but recent larger vintages mean full profitability will ramp over time; they expect originations around 600,000 to 700,000 cards per quarter and profitability should pick up next year and beyond. On auto, they cited OEM relationships like Volkswagen and Audi plus modest near-prime lending (about 5% of originations) as drivers of current returns, while noting rate levels could affect spreads.
"I do expect we'll sort of operate in this 600,000 to 700,000 cards a quarter, somewhere in that range for a little bit." — Michael Santomassimo (CFO)
Investment banking and CRE stress
Q (John Pancari · Evercore): Analyst asked for color on trading and IB trends, the IB pipeline, and whether there is incremental stress in commercial real estate or multifamily from higher rates.
A: Management said IB was just under $900 million this quarter with M&A up 30% and ECM up, and they expect to keep taking share as investments pay off; quarterly results depend on deal timing. On CRE, they noted higher rates mathematically reduce valuations, but it's too early to see broad stress and outcomes will be property-specific; they feel comfortable with their ACL for CRE.
"Overall, we continue to take a little bit of share over time as we go, and that's kind of what we expect from all the investments that we've made over the last few years." — Michael Santomassimo (CFO)
Loan growth and AI infrastructure financing
Q (David Chiaverini · Jefferies): Analyst asked how to think about loan growth vs the mid-single-digit guide and about appetite to finance AI infrastructure. He also asked if the stable NIM guide assumes reduced market balances and whether sponsored repo netting is baked in.
A: Management said loan growth this year will be higher than their initial guide and demand remains good across businesses; they will give more detail at year-end and in next year's guidance. On AI infrastructure, they said they understand layered risks (permits, power, lessees, guarantees), have hard limits, and are applying top-down oversight. On markets balances and sponsored repo, they said sponsored repo netting is not fully baked in and activity growth in the business continues, with fixed income finance gross balances up 18% versus the second quarter while net balance sheet was down.
"And like I said earlier, our fixed income finance gross balances were up 18% versus the second quarter and the net balance sheet was down." — Michael Santomassimo (CFO)