Oct 21, 2026 earnings call — Robotaxi and Optimus scaling; Megapack and Terafab progress
Tesla reported, for the first time, 2 consecutive quarters of vehicle deliveries of over 480,000.
Revenue $28.0B (est $28.1B) · EPS $0.48 (est $0.46)
Key quotes
"The biggest driver for demand is full self-driving. And today, there's really no competitor for FSD in any car that you can buy."
"I would expect that it takes us probably at least a year, maybe a little longer to get to that annualized rate to get to 20,000 units a week."
"We'll begin commissioning machinery in the first half of next year. And hopefully, if things go well, we'll make our first test chip just to see if we can make any chip at all around May or June."
Analyst Q&A 15
Cybercab expansion beyond Austin
Q (Ashok Elluswamy): Will Cybercab scale past Austin and how will regulation work outside Texas given NHTSA review?
A: They launched Cybercab this quarter using data from other Tesla vehicles. Management said there is no fundamental limit to Austin and they will launch in Dallas next month, and the same software can scale to many other cities.
Optimus training data and timeline
Q (Ashok Elluswamy): Should you crowdsource training data for Optimus or use internal Optimus Academy? Is data the main bottleneck and when might we see demos or chips integrated?
A: They will bootstrap Optimus by having humans show tasks, then use lots of self-training in simulation and the real world on the robot itself. Management said a believable Optimus video may be ready in a month or two and they plan to integrate the Tesla AI5 chip around April next year, which will greatly increase compute.
"I think we may be ready to release like an Optimus video in a month or so." — Elon Musk
FSD unsupervised in customer cars
Q (Ashok Elluswamy): When can we expect unsupervised FSD to be enabled in customer cars?
A: The Cybercab and Model Y use the same software and that software will be released to customers as part of the v15 release. They expect to turn on some of the first customer vehicles as part of the Robotaxi fleet somewhere around Q2 next year.
When can customers buy Cybercab?
Q (Lars Moravy): When will Cybercab be available for customers to buy or own instead of being fleet-only?
A: They are trying to get Cybercabs to customers by the end of this year, 2026. Today production is going to Tesla's internal Robotaxi fleet, and they will start small this year to learn delivery, ownership and fleet management before scaling customer deliveries.
Why not use third-party maps?
Q (Ashok Elluswamy): Why not use Tesla-owned maps from trusted owners instead of third-party maps for FSD issues like speed limits, parking and routes?
A: They are building their own maps using a new AI-based mapping and navigation architecture rather than relying on existing crowd maps. Management said this system will be integrated with voice, learn personal and fleet preferences, start appearing in v15 release, and will take over navigation functions over the next several months.
Factory production and new plants
Q (Lars Moravy): What is current production rate at factories and will you build new factories?
A: Factories are operating at record rates this quarter and strategic investments over the last year are increasing rates. They are ramping Cybercab at Giga Texas, applied to expand factories in Berlin, started a new semi factory in Reno, and are building new factories to hit the 5 million goal by 2030.
Competition and FSD pricing risk
Q (Gautam Narayan · RBC): If other automakers build similar L2+ products, could that pressure FSD pricing and growth?
A: Management said FSD is a very hard, long-tail problem and while the first 90% is easy, reaching high safety for millions of miles is extremely difficult. They do not expect competitors to match their unsupervised FSD for several years, and they noted strong customer demand in showrooms for FSD drives.
"Yes, it's easy to get to the first 90% and make like a cool-looking demo." — Ashok Elluswamy
Autonomy competition in China
Q (Gautam Narayan · RBC): Can Chinese automakers match Tesla's autonomy and how does that affect pricing dynamics in China?
A: They said Chinese OEMs do not currently have Tesla's leapfrog in autonomy and Tesla is working hard to get broader FSD approval in China. Management noted FSD is already operating on certain cars there and emphasized they have released safety reports to help regulators evaluate the technology.
"I mean, at the beginning, like definitely, the leapfrog which we have in terms of this technology isn't there with any of the other Chinese OEMs today." — Vaibhav Taneja
Robotaxi revenue and Cybercab ramp
Q (Emmanuel Rosner · Wolfe): How do unsupervised miles translate to Robotaxi revenue/profit and how will Cybercab production ramp?
A: They said using exponential math Robotaxi could become a significant part of revenue and profitability in 2027, becoming noticeable by Q2 and a big deal by Q3 or Q4 next year. For Cybercab ramp, management praised the design and said the vehicle has 50% fewer parts than past vehicles, the listed line capacity is a current rate but actual capacity is significantly higher, and they're building to meet the Robotaxi service needs now.
"Just to your point, we have 50% less parts than any other vehicle we've ever built." — Lars Moravy
Robotaxi growth limits: tech vs regulation
Q (Andrew Percoco · Morgan Stanley): Are growth bottlenecks for Robotaxi regulatory or software driven as you expand to more cities and conditions?
A: They said software capability is still driving gradual expansions in service hours and conditions; for example they have extended Robotaxi hours stepwise and plan to unlock 24/7 operation and higher speed roads by the end of the year. Safety is their operating principle and they will not take risks, so technology unlocks will lead to further scaling and then regulators may become more relevant in early next year.
"And we will see that over the rest of this year, we'll unlock 24/7 operation, go to higher speed roads." — Ashok Elluswamy
Terafab capital and timing
Q (Xin Yu · Deutsche Bank): How much capital is needed for Terafab and what milestones should we watch before 2Q '28?
A: Elon said Terafab requires significant capital, at least in the tens of billions for the fab and probably north of $100 billion long term, with discussions needed on cost split with SpaceX. Vaibhav added that most orders for the first research fab equipment have already been placed and real production would be late 2028 after the research fab.
"It's going to be some pretty significant capital." — Elon Musk
Optimus hand and hardware issues
Q (Konstantinos Laskaris): Where are the main remaining design changes for Optimus, especially the hand?
A: They said the hand is one of the most challenging hardware areas and is more complicated than actuators for locomotion. Elon added the hand needs fine-tuning to balance squishiness, sensors, durability, and the AI5 chip upgrade will also be an important step for robot intelligence.
Robotaxi pricing and growth drivers
Q (Alexander Perry · BofA): Will Robotaxi be priced below rideshare long term to take market share, and will unsupervised miles keep growing at double-digit weekly rates?
A: They said their cost basis is different because they manufacture their own cars and do not have drivers, and the goal is to take over transportation. Management said they will continue scaling unsupervised miles for the foreseeable future, seeing a clear path toward millions of vehicles due to years of technology investment and the v15 stack.
"We will continue the scaling for the foreseeable future." — Ashok Elluswamy
FSD recurring revenue and retention
Q (Pierre Ferragu · New Street): Do you plan to disclose FSD annual recurring revenue and do you have retention/churn data for subscriptions?
A: They said the numbers shared by the analyst look correct and that as FSD scales they will start sharing more metrics around FSD beyond revenue. They also said they currently offer free trials in many new countries and that the 75% attach rate in North America includes a month of free FSD at delivery but customers still sign up.
"And as it scales further, we will start sharing more metrics around FSD, not just the revenue, but also other key metrics around it." — Vaibhav Taneja
Optimus production while hands unfinished
Q (Colin Rusch · Oppenheimer): Will you start Optimus production and training even if hands aren't final, and how are you preparing semi and Terafab capex?
A: They are building robots without perfected hands and are training, ironing out supply chain and production, and fine-tuning design and AI software in parallel while scaling factories. On CapEx, Elon said it's not a massive impact now and CapEx is slightly lower than anticipated today, but it will become meaningful next year and in the tens of billions in 2028.
"Well, that's what we're doing is we're building robots that do not have perfected hands, and we are making progress with Optimus training and ironing out all aspects of the supply chain and the production system." — Elon Musk