Jul 30, 2026 earnings call — Project backlog and execution update
Company now targeting upper end of 2026 comparable EBITDA range of $11.6 billion to $11.8 billion.
Revenue $2.8B (est $2.8B) · EPS $0.68 (est $0.61)
Key quotes
"Looking further out, we have over $20 billion of additional projects in advanced stages of origination that align with our targeted 5 to 7x build multiple range, further supporting our long-term growth visibility."
"Our latest outlook now points to an approximately 51 Bcf per day of incremental North American natural gas demand by 2035, and that's a 40% increase over 2025 levels and represents an 11 Bcf a day increase from our original outlook."
"In Power and Energy Solutions, Bruce Power achieved 99% availability in an exceptionally strong quarter following the return of Unit 3 in June from its major component replacement outage that Francois mentioned."
Analyst Q&A 9
Alberta demand and Crossroads project
Q (Theresa Chen · Barclays): The analyst asked about customer demand in Alberta, including oil sands, power and LNG impacts, and whether constrained gas takeaway helps negotiate creative tolling. She also asked for size and economics color on the Crossroads precedent agreement and expansion plans.
A: Management said Alberta demand looks like demand across their footprint and they raised their continental growth outlook to 51 Bcf a day by 2035. They said they have about half a dozen service offerings totaling about 1 Bcf per day that inform next-phase NGTL growth, and they expect to sanction Crossroads in the fourth quarter within a 5 to 7x build multiple.
"For us to address that demand, we have approximately half a dozen service offerings in the market totaling about 1 Bcf per day of capacity, spanning both receipt and delivery sides of NGTL and covering intra-Alberta and export points." — Tina Faraca
Backlog increases and AI pilots
Q (Praneeth Satish · Wells Fargo): The analyst asked whether the pending backlog increase is mainly Crossroads and requested details on the $5 billion origination increase, including project types and geographic splits. He also asked for an update on the AI optimization pilot, coverage, benefits, and scaling.
A: Sean said the pending increase is largely Crossroads and that pending moved about $700 million into sanctioned, with Crossroads slightly north of $1 billion in round numbers. He said origination is about $20 billion, about two-thirds power and roughly two-thirds U.S. with about one-third in Canada. Francois said AI work is in small proof-of-concept segments, not linearly extrapolatable, and they have a near-term 2026 target of $100 million of AI-related incremental EBITDA and are about halfway there.
"The largely power, as we said, 2/3, and then geographically, the way -- the rule of thumb I would give you on that $20 billion is about 2/3 of that is U.S. within that customer segment bar charts." — Sean O'Donnell (CFO)
Regulatory framework and funding window
Q (Aaron MacNeil · TD Cowen): The analyst asked if customers bidding now are underwriting projects under a tentative new regulatory and return framework or if the return framework is still to be determined. He also asked what level of annual growth capital the company could fund organically in 2029 and 2030 while maintaining target leverage, and how funding would be sourced if pipeline opportunity materializes.
A: Management said the ultimate return framework is still to be determined and they are discussing an investment framework with customers, with some progress hoped by year-end. Sean described a 3-part funding framework, reiterated the firm commitment to the 4.75 leverage target, and said there is a 2- to 3-year window between 2029 and 2031 to solve funding before Bruce cash flows kick in; if a gap appears they would consider levers like capital rotation or capital markets to find the lowest dollar-per-share solution.
"So we've got this 2- or 3-year window between 2029 and call it, 2030 or 2031 that we're really solving for to support Tina and Greg." — Sean O'Donnell (CFO)
Canada capital competition and Mexico view
Q (Jeremy Tonet · JPMorgan): The analyst asked how Canadian growth opportunities compete for capital against attractive U.S. projects, and whether Canada can improve returns or equity layers to attract capital. He also asked about strategy and exposure in Mexico going forward and possible monetization.
A: Management said Canada offers a lower-risk, supportive regulatory framework versus the U.S., and that higher returns would need to be earned through measures like ancillary services or shared cost savings while keeping geographic balance in capital allocation. On Mexico, they said the major trunk lines are built, gas-fired generation is growing into existing pipeline capacity, the portfolio is operating as designed, and they do not see materially large new investments required soon.
"What I will say is that it is a lower risk supportive regulatory framework in Canada than we have in the U.S. in terms of protections around capital, cost of debt, billing determinants, et cetera." — Francois Poirier (CEO)
Sanction pace and supply chain readiness
Q (Robert Hope · Scotia Bank): The analyst asked how projects are progressing toward FID, whether the $8 billion sanction target for the year is still achievable, and how projects move through the funnel. He also asked about supply chain and contractor availability risks.
A: Francois said they typically sanction $3 billion to $4 billion a year and, with Crossroads expected in Q4 plus other U.S. and Canadian irons in the fire, 2026 could reach $6 billion to $8 billion of sanctioned capital. Tina said origination includes about $14 billion centered on power and related demand, Crossroads is next for sanctioning, and they run a rigorous sanction process. On supply chain, Tina said pipeline equipment for sanctioned projects is secured, they negotiate with suppliers, form strategic contractor alliances, and do not see supply chain issues affecting in-service dates.
"We typically sanction $3 billion to $4 billion a year of new projects." — Francois Poirier (CEO)
2028 tailwinds and data center investments
Q (John Mackay · Goldman Sachs): The analyst asked what tailwinds are shaping the 2028 guidance and whether there is opportunity to invest outside the NGTL regulatory framework to capture higher-return data center projects.
A: Sean said the core tailwind is operating leverage across their large footprint and the ability to capture demand and volatility, plus commercial optimization and projects delivered on time at attractive 5 to 7x build multiples. Francois and Greg said yes, there can be opportunities: short laterals via the unregulated arm can serve data centers faster at attractive tolls, and their Alberta footprint and low gas prices give them vertical opportunities across power, storage and regulated and unregulated gas businesses.
"And when teams have availability that high and you've got the fundamental demand growth and a little bit of volatility in the market, this footprint is just -- candidly, it delivers and over-delivers in different ways in different years." — Sean O'Donnell (CFO)
Drivers of demand forecast change
Q (Maurice Choy · RBC): The analyst asked what surprised them most about revising the demand outlook from the original 40 Bcf a day to 51 Bcf, and whether they would have pursued different initiatives earlier. He also asked if stakeholder pushback on data centers has affected customers' pipeline-signing behavior.
A: Tina said the increase to 51 Bcf per day is driven primarily by LNG feed gas and especially power generation, and they now expect North American gas-fired generation to rise to 60 Bcf per day by 2035. Sean said they would not have acted differently two years ago and that serving power and building at 5 to 7x remains the best value creation. Francois said data center pushback is region-specific, only a few states have considered pauses with most rejected or not moving, and he has not seen it slow their development pipeline.
"We now expect North American gas-fired generation to rise from prior outlooks of 54 Bcf per day to 60 Bcf per day by 2035." — Tina Faraca
Bruce funding and egress requirements
Q (Robert Catellier · CIBC): The analyst asked whether the additional predevelopment funding is enough to reach FID, and for timelines on technology selection and ultimate FID. He also asked about long-term egress needs if oil sands production grows.
A: Greg said the next $300 million tranche covers pre-feed, technology selection, early engineering and consultation and will carry them effectively until closer to the end of the decade, with technology selection continuing into next year before a likely selection. Francois said egress is not only LNG: in-country load growth and their U.S. pipes can absorb associated gas, and cited a recent mainline settlement that adds about 350 million cubic feet a day of capacity for a $200 million capital investment as an efficient example.
"The next tranche of funding of $300 million is going to cover us effectively until we get closer to the end of the decade." — Greg Grant
Origination mix and capital sources
Q (Benjamin Pham · BMO capital): The analyst asked how the $20 billion-plus origination pie will evolve in size and demand-driver mix, and asked management to rank funding sources (hybrids, partnerships, common equity) and discuss prefunding versus waiting.
A: Sean said the origination number rose from about $15 billion earlier this year to $20 billion-plus as capital formation grows into the early 2030s, and the shown breakdown is power-dominated post-2030 though it is early to call a steady-state. On funding, he said they measure options against a dollar-per-share cap, markets and private credit are constructive with many levers available, and they plan to take time and likely act around 2028 depending on how 2029-2031 shapes up.
"The fundamentals, particularly in Tina's business on the pipeline side are certainly suggestive of this new normal of what we're seeing on a run rate." — Sean O'Donnell (CFO)