Nov 2, 2026 earnings call — Data deals, oncology growth, Personalis acquisition
Total revenue was $412 million, increasing 23% year over year.
Revenue $0.4B (est $0.4B) · EPS $0.07 (est $-0.09) · Next-quarter revenue outlook $1.6B–$1.6B
Key quotes
"We entered into a strategic collaboration with Bristol Myers Squibb, or BMS, whereby we agreed to license BMS oncology data and models for up to $138 million over a 5-year term."
"That gives us about $80 million of uplift in oncology ASP. In 2027."
"We cleared regulatory review of our pending acquisition of Personalis, and a Personalis shareholder meeting to approve the transaction is scheduled for November 30."
Analyst Q&A 9
Hereditary diagnostics outlook 2027
Q (Kyle Mikson · Canaccord Genuity): Analyst asked how proposed clinician lab fee schedule rates might create headwinds for hereditary tests and asked for the diagnostics outlook for 2027, noting oncology ASP tailwinds.
A: Management said the hereditary business looks poised to do much better than in recent quarters and that unit growth has returned to low double digits. They said the market is still very underpenetrated and that they do not expect Gamma to materially impact hereditary cancer rates. They added oncology ASPs should get about $80 million uplift in 2027 as XT pricing updates kick in on January 1.
"So I think the overall hereditary business seems to be poised to do kind of much better as we move forward than it has over the last few quarters." — Eric Lefkofsky (CEO)
Long-term growth and 2027 drivers
Q (Cantor Fitzgerald): The analyst asked about headwinds and tailwinds in 2027, whether CGP volume holds in the low 20s, D&A margins near 30% versus 25%, and if reinvesting two-thirds of gross profit can still reach long-term 25% growth and above in 2028 with XT/XF uplifts.
A: Management said they view sustained long-term 25% growth as healthy and achievable. They noted oncology sequencing unit growth is about 32% and the data business is about 33%, while hereditary is slower, so aggregate 25%+ is attainable. They also said ASP lifts or strong data demand could produce periods of materially higher growth.
"so in the aggregate, we feel like this kind of 25 plus percent growth rate is achievable and achievable long term." — Eric Lefkofsky (CEO)
MRD sales ramp timing after Personalis
Q (Mark Massaro · BTIG): The analyst asked when the company will let the remaining 85% of reps sell MRD after acquiring Personalis and whether that could happen in the first half of 2027 or if other criteria are needed.
A: Management said the main gating factor is reimbursement and unit economics, not closing the deal. They explained Personalis currently loses money running these tests and that turning positive gross profit per test—particularly in colorectal—would be the big unlock to scale sales. They expect to dial up MRD sales in 2027 and think the corner toward positive per-test gross profit could be midyear, enabling stronger ramp later in 2027 into 2028.
"We have to be sensitive that at the present moment when Personalis runs these tests, they lose money." — Eric Lefkofsky (CEO)
MRD competition and market share
Q (Bradley Bowers · Mizuho): The analyst asked how Tempus' MRD offering compares to competitors and how to think about market share once MRD is fully rolled into Tempus.
A: Management said the MRD assay is best-in-class and physicians like it, so the main limiter to volume is unlocking the full Tempest sales machine and unit economics. They believe Tempus' integrated technology, AI, and broad test portfolio give no competitive impediment to scaling MRD, and they expect to be number 1 or 2 in MRD as in other categories.
"So the real unlock to volume is just that the full you know, Tempest sales machine is kind of unlocked to sell MRD at scale." — Eric Lefkofsky (CEO)
Data business pipeline and visibility
Q (Ryan MacDonald · Needham): The analyst asked about the data business pipeline, any pull-forward of demand, the mix across oncology, neuro, cardiology, and how this informs visibility into 2027 growth targets.
A: Management said they have seen an uptick in engagement and have moved customers from episodic purchases to long strategic collaborations, which gives much greater visibility. They cited large deals with Merck, BioNTech and BMS and multi-year contracts ("5, 6 years") that make growth visible into 2027 and beyond. They added the data platform Lens and longer subscriptions support durable demand and expansion beyond oncology.
"The beauty of these deals are, you know, as we kind of march our customers up from being kind of episodic purchasers to these large strategic you know, collaborations." — James Rogers (CFO)
AI modeling and customer stickiness
Q (Goldman Sachs): The analyst asked how AI modeling in the Insights business changes customer stickiness, what percent of customers use AI modeling, and how that will evolve into next year.
A: Management said they deliberately moved customers to build analytics and models inside their Lens platform, which increased stickiness. They described customers signing long GPU cluster subscriptions (examples of 3 years of 32 GPUs or 64 GPUs) and building models that often stay in Tempus' environment, making relationships much stickier. They said it has gone from not sticky to very sticky given this setup.
"And so people began doing more and more of their analytic work, generating insights from the data in our Lens platform." — Eric Lefkofsky (CEO)
Drivers of order requisition growth
Q (Subbu Nambi · Guggenheim): The analyst asked what is driving order requisitions up 25% year over year and whether specific indications, academic or community settings, or EMR integration explain the strength.
A: Management pointed to macro trends favoring liquid testing, including concurrent solid and liquid testing for metastatic patients and more serial earlier testing that changes therapies regularly. They said liquid benefits from finding mutations missed by solid testing and referenced strong market unit volume. They noted September showed an uptick that, if it continues, could make liquid outperform solid and that MRD could further propel growth.
"You have this movement to kind of do both more often for later stage patients that are at high risk of mortality." — Eric Lefkofsky (CEO)
EBITDA outlook and reinvestment policy
Q (Daniel Brennan · TD Cowen): The analyst asked whether margins can ramp to consensus EBITDA of 7% in 2027 and 11% in 2028, and how much oncology pricing increases will flow to the bottom line versus reinvestment.
A: Management said their policy is to reinvest roughly 2/3 of incremental gross profit back into the business and let about 1/3 drop to the bottom line while they are still early in product expansion. They said Personalis will burn money at close and Tempus will absorb that while still improving EBITDA over time, and they do not intend to maximize short-term EBITDA given growth opportunities.
"we have had this perspective of kind of reinvesting 2/3 or roughly 2 thirds of any incremental gross profit dollars that we generate back in the business and then letting 1/3 drop down to the bottom." — James Rogers (CFO)
Trial matching, trial revenue, non-oncology growth
Q (Dan Arias · Stifel): The analyst asked where trial-matching revenues might land this year and whether AI will drive an inflection in trial matching enrollments over the next year or two. A retail investor asked about growth outside oncology and opportunities in cardiology, nephrology, immunology, and neurology.
A: Management said Thyme (their trial matching network) was pivoted to an enterprise focus and now requires clients to load most oncology trials; the network spans north of a thousand oncologists and generates strong enrollments for pharma, making it a premium product but not a billion-dollar business. They said they are deemphasizing pure CRO work. On non-oncology, they pointed to the BMS $55 million deal to build an Alzheimer's dataset of about half a million patients and noted diagnostics expansion depends on reimbursement.
"We are a high generator of enrollments for pharma, and so it is a really nice asset." — Eric Lefkofsky (CEO)