Oct 20, 2026 earnings call — Record steel shipments and aluminum ramp update
Record quarterly steel shipments of 3.8 million tons and adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion.
Revenue $6.5B (est $6.4B) · EPS $5.26 (est $5.48)
Key quotes
"The mill is transitioning from commissioning to full production ramp and the excitement continues to be palpable as you tour the facility."
"During the third quarter of 2026, the domestic steel industry operated at an estimated utilization rate of 80%, while our steel mills operated at 92%."
"During 2026, we have repurchased $591 million of our common stock and continued a positive dividend profile. At September 30, $216 million remained available under our current repurchase program."
Analyst Q&A 11
What 90% means and margin drivers
Q (Nicklaus Cash · Goldman Sachs): They asked whether the 90% utilization refers to hot band production, cold mill output, or finished shipments and how hot band output will translate to shipments. They also asked for a breakdown of margin gains from higher scrap, better yields, fixed-cost absorption, and timing to reach optimal scrap use.
A: Mark said the 90% is hot strip mill capability, not finished shipments, and shipments will trail because it takes "a month or 2" to flow through the supply chain. Theresa said yields will have the largest margin impact and they saw yield improvement in October; they expect to reach those yields "before the end of this year" and have them consistent through 2027. She said scrap content will be increased in the "first half of 2027" and that labor is already lower ("750 people, around 700 people").
"The magnitude of impact really is that the yields will have the most impact." — Theresa Wagler (CFO)
When product mix will be optimal
Q (Alexander Hacking · Citi): When will the aluminum product mix reach an optimal end state — by the end of next year or later in 2028?
A: Theresa said they will increase automotive content through 2027 and expect automotive to be a much larger part of the mix. She said they are "completely dialed in at 30% by the end of the next year" but full optimization likely comes in 2028 because they must get onto new automotive platforms.
"We do expect to be increasing the amount of automotive as part of the mix throughout 2027." — Theresa Wagler (CFO)
Fabrication pricing outlook
Q (Katja Jancic · BMO): How should investors think about pricing in the Fabrication business from here? And can you quantify how much higher prices are in the backlog?
A: Theresa said pricing being put into the backlog today for projects delivering in early 2027 is higher, so Fabrication should see positive effects on margins and volumes into 2027. She cautioned fourth-quarter seasonality could limit changes in Q4 but expects a stronger 2027. She declined to quantify the exact backlog price uplift, saying the commercial team would be upset.
"So the pricing that's going into the backlog today, so those projects that are being priced and really looking for delivery in early 2027 do have higher pricing associated with them." — Theresa Wagler (CFO)
Steel mill margin outlook
Q (Carlos de Alba · Morgan Stanley): Do you expect margins in the steel mills to expand in Q4 and early 2027 given scrap and steel price moves?
A: Mark said the market is very tight with long lead times, low inventories, and Q4 outages that will remove "1 million, 1.2 million tons" from supply. He said scrap has been relatively stable with a bump in October and that obsolete and prompt scrap flows are strong, so he does not expect major upward raw material pressure. Overall, he expects margins or spreads to stay "very, very strong to slightly upward" in the coming months.
"So it would be our view that the margins or spreads will remain very, very strong to slightly upward in the coming months." — Mark Millett (CEO·CHAIR)
Fabrication costs and mill outages timing
Q (Lawson Winder · BofA): Are there cost headwinds partly offsetting Fabrication's positives heading into 2027? And what are the timing and expected length of planned outages at the flat-rolled mills this quarter?
A: Theresa said the year-over-year TTM drop came from steel prices strengthening quickly and the Fabrication team needing time to put higher raw-material costs into backlog; going forward they expect pricing support so it should not materially affect 2027. Mark said most outages are normal "3-, 3.5-day" events, with Butler possibly a bit longer due to an overhead crane change, and Theresa said the outages are in "October, November."
"The -- all the outages are somewhat normal, like 3-, 3.5-day outages with the exception of Butler." — Mark Millett (CEO·CHAIR)
Earnings mix: steel vs aluminum and fab
Q (Albert Realini · Jefferies): Should we see the current high share of earnings from the mills as a peak, and how will aluminum and Fabrication contributions evolve next year?
A: Theresa agreed this is likely a high watermark for steel's share because Fabrication is rebounding and aluminum is only beginning to ramp. She said aluminum will add stability to earnings and cash flow and that investors will see a shift in Q4 and throughout 2027 as aluminum ramps in volume and earnings. Mark agreed.
"As we progress through, you'll see a shift in the fourth quarter and then certainly throughout all of 2027 as aluminum ramps, both from a volume perspective, but also from an earnings capability perspective." — Theresa Wagler (CFO)
Aluminum profitability and capital plans
Q (Tristan Gresser · BNP Paribas): Is aluminum still on track to be EBIT positive in H2, and what is your capital allocation and CapEx plan for 2027?
A: Mark clarified they were EBIT positive in Q3 but Theresa said being EBIT positive for the second half in total is unlikely; they expect EBIT positivity in the first quarter and onward for 2027. On capital allocation, Theresa said they are prioritizing a pipeline of organic growth projects over a 1- to 3-year timeframe, will present details early next year, and said next-year CapEx "might be in the range of $600-plus million" but needs refinement. Mark added that a recently discussed new steel mill project is unlikely to come to fruition.
"For the second half of the year, in totality, given the experience that we had in the third quarter, I don't think it's likely." — Theresa Wagler (CFO)
Can you raise flat-rolled volumes?
Q (Timna Tanners · Wells Fargo): Can you flex system capacity to meet growing flat-rolled demand next year, and why isn't Sinton running at full output today?
A: Mark said Sinton has room to expand: it is running about "210,000, 220,000 tons a month" now and the expectation is to grow to "250,000 tons a month or perhaps more." Theresa added the structural mill can add "80,000 tons to 100,000 tons." Mark said Sinton reached a solid state around "80%, 85%" and just needs more time to tweak and remove small issues.
"And the expectation is for that to continue to grow to 250,000 tons a month or perhaps more." — Mark Millett (CEO·CHAIR)
Why coated product mix is rising
Q (Samuel McKinney · KeyBanc): What is the internal strategy and the demand drivers behind the rising coated product mix, and will it keep increasing?
A: Theresa said the increase was intentional and came from adding four value-added coating lines (two at Sinton and two at an Indiana processing facility) that have been ramping. She said you should expect continued improvement over the next "probably 6 months" because there is still room for higher utilization on those lines. Mark added they will keep expanding coated product types and new offerings like digital print and pre-paint improvements.
"And you should expect to continue to see that improve over the next probably 6 months as well because there's still room for higher utilization from those lines." — Theresa Wagler (CFO)
Long products strength and data center exposure
Q (William Peterson · JPMorgan): What is driving the outperformance in long products and will it continue? How much of your structural exposure is to data centers and has that share grown?
A: Theresa said they closed an old melt shop at Steel West Virginia and now can send billets through the system, improving internal efficiency and margins. She said market demand for joist, deck, and structural beams is very strong and should continue into 2027. Mark said structural markets are broad-based and data centers are only about "15%" of structural exposure; Theresa said in Fabrication, joist and deck represent "less than 10%, generally around 8%" and structural exposure rose in 2026 but has leveled off.
"From what Mark mentioned structurals, steel joist and deck in our fabrication business, it represents less than 10%, generally around 8%." — Theresa Wagler (CFO)
Can scrap support another mill and debt yields
Q (John Tumazos · Very Independent): Can the scrap and finished-product market support another large rolling mill in North America (e.g., another Columbus complex)? Also, do your cash yields exceed your highest debt cost (5.375%) today?
A: Theresa said the scrap and demand environment can support another rolling mill in the U.S. or North America, though whether it would be at Columbus is a separate question. Mark said the market and scrap supply can support a full Columbus-based mill. On yields vs debt, Theresa answered "No" and noted they have notes coming due in "December of next year" and are opportunistic about financing and the capital stack.
"And there is definitely the scrap supply out there, John, to support." — Mark Millett (CEO·CHAIR)