Aug 19, 2026 earnings call — Salar Futuro milestone and lithium production growth
SQM reported record lithium sales of more than 84,000 metric tons and reiterated 2026 production targets and investments.
Revenue $2.5B (est $2.2B) · EPS $2.31 (est $2.03)
Key quotes
"In July, Novandino Litio, our association with Codelco, submitting the environmental and technical documentation for the Salar Futuro project to the authorities."
"We achieved record quarterly sales volumes of more than 84,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent from our operations in Chile through Novandino Litio and in Australia through Covalent Lithium."
"In Chile, we expect Novandino Litio to produce between 280,000 and 290,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent this year and to have approximately 300,000 metric tons of production capacity by next year."
Analyst Q&A 9
Q3 lithium volumes, prices, costs, supply
Q (Joel Jackson · BMO): Analyst asked if Q3 lithium gross margin will be similar to Q2 given flat prices and volumes, and about costs. He also asked why Novandino prices are widening versus international and where an extra 200,000 tons of supply is coming from.
A: Management said Q3 sales volumes should remain strong and in line with Q2. They said Q3 prices should be roughly in line with the first semester average but remain volatile. They said costs should be similar to Q2, and the extra supply likely comes from China, ramp-ups in Africa and Argentina, and some restarts in Australia.
"Regarding Q3, first of all, in terms of sales volume, we expect Q3 2026 to remain strong, in line with Q2, okay?" — Felipe Smith
Connection check from analyst
Q (Isabella Simonato): Analyst asked simply, "Do you hear me?"
A: There was no management answer in this exchange; the call continued to the next exchange.
Novandino ramp and future production
Q (Isabella Simonato · BofA): Analyst asked for an update on Novandino ramp, the 300,000 tons next year, and what feasible production could be when Salar Futuro starts.
A: Management said this year they expect to produce around 280,000 to 290,000 metric tons and next year about 300,000. They said future growth will be moderated because they are reducing brine extraction and they are still studying initiatives before deciding further increases.
"Well, this year, we expect as our CEO said before, that we expect to produce around 280,000 to 290,000 metric tons." — Carlos Diaz Ortiz (CEO)
Iodine new supply and price impact
Q (Pablo Altimiras · BofA): Analyst asked where the new iodine supply is coming from, how big it is in volume, and whether it will disrupt prices.
A: Management said they expect the main new iodine supply to come from projects in Chile. They said demand growth this year is about 3%, so the new capacity will likely compensate that growth and they do not expect larger disruption.
Breakdown of 300,000 ton increase sources
Q (Emerson Vieira · Goldman Sachs): Analyst asked how the 300,000 tons next year split between Chile conversion (hydroxide) and tolling contracts in China.
A: Management said all production comes from Salar de Atacama, with refining done two ways: lithium chloride refined in Chile and lithium sulfate refined in China. They said for next year about 300,000 is expected, with roughly 80,000 from lithium sulfate (China tolling) and 220,000 from the Antofagasta chemical plant; hydroxide is only about 20,000 to 30,000 of total.
"Of those, we estimate now this 80,000 of those is going to be from lithium sulfate and the other 220,000 for our Antofagasta chemical plant." — Carlos Diaz Ortiz (CEO)
Mount Holland refinery decision and product mix
Q (Mark Fones · Goldman Sachs): Analyst asked whether the company will expand the Mount Holland refinery after the concentrator expansion, and the expected mix between hydroxide and spodumene sales in 2027 and later.
A: Management said they have not decided on a refinery expansion yet and will analyze it with partners; the decision depends on reaching ramp-up. They said next year they expect higher lithium hydroxide production than this year and probably lower direct spodumene concentrate sales.
Tolling contract risk and Mount Holland milestones
Q (Lucas Ferreira · JPMorgan): Analyst asked about the length and risk of tolling contracts for sulfate (about 50,000 tons) and the next big milestones and challenges to bring Mount Holland online by 2030.
A: Management said their own China plant produces about 24,000–25,000 and will expand toward 30,000, with additional sulfate produced under undisclosed tolling contracts they expect to continue. For Mount Holland, they said construction start should be mid next year, construction will take 18–24 months, commissioning in 2029, and first product early 2030; they may try to compress schedule but will focus on de-risking.
"the next relevant milestone has to do with the start of the construction of the facility itself, which should happen in mid next year." — Mark Fones (CEO)
Q4 seasonality and long-term strategy after 2030
Q (Corinne Blanchard · Deutsche Bank): Analyst asked if 4Q will be the seasonal high like prior years, and asked for a high-level view of strategy and CapEx after 2030 given Codelco's role.
A: Management said Q4 is far away but they hope volumes at least match Q2 and Q3; they expect full-year sales around 27,000 to 30,000 tons LCE. They said the partnership with Codelco is working well, they submitted Salar Futuro in July, are doing engineering to be ready for investment, and they hope to be mid-investment in 2031.
"I hope in 2031, we would be in the middle of the investment of Salar Futuro." — Ricardo Ramos (CEO)
Salar Futuro spend vs 30,000 tons and BESS inventory risk
Q (Ben Isaacson · Scotiabank): Analyst asked to separate the $3 billion Salar Futuro spend from the 30,000 ton capacity increase, and whether battery storage inventory builds could cause temporary oversupply that caps lithium demand.
A: Management said Salar Futuro is a broad project: it changes technology, cost profile, and environmental footprint and is a revamp for the Salar de Atacama for many decades, not just a simple capacity add. They agreed there is a gap today between battery shipments and deployments, partly from large projects and delays and some timing shifts from China tax changes; this may slow BESS deployment pace but BESS remains a relevant demand factor.
"Ben, it's very important to consider that the Salar Futuro project is not only increasing capacity, it is changing technology." — Ricardo Ramos (CEO)