Oct 29, 2026 earnings call — Back to Starbucks shifts to growth plan
Company closed Q4 with $9.1 billion revenue and 7.2% global comps, while guiding fiscal '27 EPS $3.15 to $3.25.
Revenue $9.1B (est $9.2B) · EPS $0.80 (est $0.72)
Key quotes
"Back to Starbucks started as a turnaround plan and now Back to Starbucks is our growth plan."
"In the quarter, more than 80% of our North America company-operated coffeehouses delivered positive comps, up from less than 50% a year ago."
"For fiscal '27, we expect North America comps of approximately 4%, consolidated operating margin of 13.5% to 14% and EPS of $3.15 to $3.25."
Analyst Q&A 14
Drivers of 4% same-store sales guide
Q (Brian Harbour · Morgan Stanley): Analyst asked whether the 4% same-store sales guide is basically on-algo plus benefits from closures and uplifts, and whether they see that now entering fiscal Q1. He also asked what incremental layers matter most.
A: Management said the guidance is built on fundamentals driven by Green Apron Service, strong rewards and digital, and marketing/menu innovation. They believe they are a year ahead of schedule versus the fiscal '28 guidance and see strength that supports 4% comps.
"So the way I look at it is we're probably a year ahead of schedule relative to the guidance we gave for fiscal year '28 and we do see strength in the business that gave us the confidence to commit to 4% comps." — Brian Niccol (CEO·CHAIR)
2027 margins and $2 billion savings
Q (Danilo Gargiulo · Bernstein): Analyst asked how margins should evolve in 2027 and requested examples or details on the $2 billion gross savings program and where future savings will come from.
A: Management said 2027 will be more balanced than 2026, with slightly more benefit in the first half but fairly balanced across the year. They are over 50% of the $2 billion gross savings achieved, with this year weighted more to G&A, then OpEx, and cost of goods sold more into '27 and '28.
"As we shared in the prepared remarks, we're over 50% of the $2 billion gross savings program achieved." — Catherine Smith (CFO)
U.S. unit growth and drive-thru tech timing
Q (David Palmer · Evercore): Analyst asked about U.S. unit growth ramp (he said net growth maybe 40–50) and longer-term pace, and asked about the timing and expected impact of the new technology tests aimed at drive-thru.
A: Management said U.S. net new units will be around 100 net new range or a little below this year after resetting the pipeline, with a goal north of 300 in fiscal year '28 to reach 5,000 or more in North America. On drive-thru tech, tests are just starting; they expect improved throughput that would help top line and bottom line but it's premature to be specific.
"As you look out into fiscal year '28, we want to get back into building new units north of 300 or so in the U.S." — Brian Niccol (CEO·CHAIR)
North America margin drivers and outlook
Q (Christopher O'Cull · Baird): Analyst asked what drove the stronger-than-expected North America margin leverage in Q4 beyond higher sales, and what guidance assumes for next year's North America margins and any unusual items.
A: Management said the biggest driver was sales leverage from a 7% U.S. comp, plus rolling over Green Apron Service investments, pricing benefits, and supply chain savings. They see coffee deflation and continued cost savings as tailwinds into fiscal '27 and expect the comp guide to be the main driver of profit.
"So the 7% comp we did in the U.S., that obviously helps a ton with the sales leverage." — Catherine Smith (CFO)
Components of comp growth and store count outlook
Q (Sara Senatore · BofA): Analyst asked how much of growth came from sales transfer/closures and the balance of traffic vs ticket, and whether the long-term North America store opportunity still looks like 5,000 or changed.
A: Management said about 200 basis points of Q4 comp was helped by closures/transfers, and Q4 ticket was roughly half pricing/delivery and half attach and mix. They said fiscal '27 will weight a bit more toward ticket and that they have line of sight on 5,000 additional units with potential upside over time.
"It's consistent with the previous quarter, about 200 basis points helped us there." — Catherine Smith (CFO)
Platform initiatives for afternoon growth
Q (Andrew Charles · TD Cowen): Analyst asked why Q1 comp cadence is expected to be similar to other quarters despite an easier comp, and which product platforms count as a successful new platform launch by year end.
A: Management said seasonality has been smoothed and absolute transaction volumes are more consistent across quarters, which supports steady guidance. They described platforms like protein, Energy Refreshers, and food platforms (moving bites from morning to afternoon) and said platforms plus LTOs together drive transactions and sales.
"And those working together are doing a nice job of driving transaction and sales." — Brian Niccol (CEO·CHAIR)
Daily deliveries and replenishment impact
Q (John Ivankoe · JP Morgan Chase & Company): Analyst asked about the implications of 7-day delivery and 24-hour replenishment on afternoon and morning categories, grab-and-go cases, and store backend.
A: Management said improved replenishment and daily deliveries help put the right product in the right place and time across different coffeehouse behaviors, benefiting food, cold case grab-and-go, and crafted beverages. They expect continued progress and getting to replenishment within 24 hours in the next 6 to 12 months.
"So we believe there's still a lot of upside to be had there, and the team is making great progress." — Brian Niccol (CEO·CHAIR)
Running ahead of schedule elements
Q (Lauren Silberman · Deutsche Bank): Analyst asked which elements have run faster than planned and if that implies upside to fiscal '28 targets.
A: Management said sales, margins, and earnings are all running ahead of schedule, which supports guiding to the low end of fiscal '28 already. They view fiscal '28 guidance as a point on a longer journey, not an end point, and aim to keep growing through fundamentals and innovation.
"The good news is you kind of listed off all the things that are ahead of schedule, sales, margins and earnings." — Brian Niccol (CEO·CHAIR)
Scorecard link to store performance
Q (Sharon Zackfia · William Blair): Analyst asked if the Grow Scorecard still correlates with unit comp performance and whether negative comps are due to scorecard issues or idiosyncratic factors.
A: Management said the Grow Scorecard remains a strong indicator and helps identify stores needing operational fixes like team stability or above-store leadership. Some underperformers have idiosyncratic issues like construction or delivery allocation changes, and the scorecard directs where to focus improvements.
"So yes, the good news is the Grow Scorecard continues to be a great indicator of performance." — Brian Niccol (CEO·CHAIR)
CapEx and support for growth
Q (Jacob Aiken-Phillips · Melius): Analyst asked how much next year's CapEx establishes capabilities for future growth and whether higher opening pace will require a bigger capital envelope.
A: Management said CapEx was a lower percent of revenue last year due to fewer openings and next year will invest in uplifts and new store support. They expect to remain around 5% of revenue plus or minus in the following year and said incremental capital for new capabilities is fairly small versus coffeehouse support.
"Going beyond that, though, into the following year, we still believe we should be in that 5% of revenue range, plus or minus, and we'll continue to use that as our guide." — Catherine Smith (CFO)
Uplift effects and international ownership
Q (Jon Tower · Citi): Analyst asked about the absolute lifts from store uplifts, balance of traffic vs ticket, and whether Japan might move to a license model.
A: Management said uplifts drive brand, transactions and total sales and customers/partners report the stores feel like "Starbucks again," supporting more of the 2,000+ uplifts planned. On Japan and international ownership, they said they always evaluate ownership strategy and will share changes if and when the time comes.
"If and when the time comes where that should change, we'll share that with you." — Brian Niccol (CEO·CHAIR)
Rewards program performance
Q (Peter Saleh · BTIG): Analyst asked for more details on the rewards program performance: frequency, spend, and how the 36 million active users are behaving.
A: Management said the new tiering (Green, Gold, Reserve) is driving members to move up tiers, primarily driven by higher frequency so far. They expect personalization to drive ticket later, customers enjoy the program and redemption choices like 60 stars for $2, and the team will evolve personalization next.
"The way we've done the new tiering with Green, Gold and Reserve, we're continuing to see people move up from Green to Gold and Gold to Reserve, and that's really driven by, first and foremost, frequency." — Brian Niccol (CEO·CHAIR)
Afternoon peak and Energy Refreshers
Q (Margaret-May Binshtok · Wolfe): Analyst asked for the current state of the afternoon daypart versus a year ago, the biggest drivers going forward, and how Energy Refreshers have trended.
A: Management said upgrades to food and pastry cases have increased afternoon attach and that Energy Refreshers have skewed more to the morning, but caffeine-free Refreshers and tea/health initiatives are helping afternoon growth. They reported TSDs are up versus a year ago across dayparts and highlighted Matcha as a growing $1 billion platform that performs well in the afternoon.
"The refreshers program, the thing that's great is -- and we still have more work to do on this, but energy has actually skewed more towards the morning." — Brian Niccol (CEO·CHAIR)
Green Apron Service and staffing peaks
Q (Brian Bittner · Oppenheimer): Analyst asked whether, now that Green Apron Service investments are in the base, Starbucks can reanalyze footprint and find efficiency pockets to drive more operating leverage.
A: Management said Green Apron Service was the right investment and is enabling them to extend peak service hours; they see a current 3-hour morning peak that can expand toward 4 hours. Expanding and stretching peaks in morning and afternoon will enable better service, more throughput, and growth.
"The thing that's great to see is -- and I'm going to get a little technical with you here, but we've got right now a 3-hour peak in the morning." — Brian Niccol (CEO·CHAIR)