Sep 1, 2026 earnings call — Board approves Burnstone and Mount Lyell projects
Board approved Burnstone and allocated $98 million for 2026 to start the project, while group revenue rose to just under ZAR 90 billion.
Revenue $5.6B (est $5.2B) · EPS $1.34 (est $1.26)
Key quotes
"Our guidance for this year is we will spend about ZAR 98 million of capital for project setup and start of recruitment."
"I think the message I want to leave you with today is that overall, we remain very, very well placed to achieve our strategy of reducing gross debt by 50% over a 2- to 3-year period."
Analyst Q&A 12
macros, precious metals, lithium markets
Q (Kleantha Pillay): The presenter asked for a brief update on macros, precious metals and lithium market developments.
A: Management said global growth is downgraded amid the Iran war, gold and platinum prices consolidated after record highs, and lithium hydroxide peaked near $28,000 a tonne in May then eased to about $21,000 per tonne today. They expect lithium prices to fall as new supply comes online but not below 2025 levels.
financial results and dividends
Q (Charl Keyter): The analyst wanted the group financial summary: EBITDA, cash, debt reduction and dividend details.
A: Management reported adjusted EBITDA ZAR 31.8 billion, cash from operations just under ZAR 21 billion, ZAR 8.2 billion capital spend and gross debt down from ZAR 39.3 billion to ZAR 32.1 billion. The Board declared an interim dividend of ZAR 5.7 billion or ZAR 2.01 per share at the upper end of their policy.
sustainability, energy and water
Q (Henrika Ninham): The analyst wanted clarity on how the company defines sustainability and what concrete steps are being taken on energy and water.
A: Management said sustainability equals business resilience, portfolio resilience and people/planet/prosperity, and highlighted their renewables plan to grow from 165 MW today to over 835 MW by 2028, saving more than ZAR 1 billion in energy costs. They also said gold operations are 95% water independent and PGM operations are 42% water independent with a plan to reach 90% by 2028.
progress versus plan and 45X tax credit
Q (Charl Keyter · Nedbank): The analyst asked where management is ahead, on track or behind versus their plan, and about timing of the Section 45X cash refund.
A: Management said they are ahead on cash generation and margin optimisation, but changing operating models and portfolio simplification take longer than expected. On 45X, the IRS process has started with a site-visit request and engineers reviewing the '23 return, but no timeline was given.
recycling volumes and Stillwater West timing
Q (Grant Stuart · RMB Morgan Stanley): The analyst asked about recycling feedstock trends and whether Stillwater West is out of the near-term plan even if prices hit $1,000.
A: Recycling (autocat) volumes have not materially grown; pricing moved slightly but not enough to change the market size. For Stillwater West, management said they must first prove mechanisation and productivity at Stillwater East (target $1,000) over 2–3 years before committing to West; any West development would be incremental and sequenced.
"We've got to get towards the $1,000 at Stillwater East before we go anywhere near Stillwater West." — Charles Carter
why build Mount Lyell and Burnstone
Q (Henrika Ninham): The analyst asked why the company chose to build Mount Lyell and Burnstone instead of selling or partnering.
A: Management said both projects sit on substantial existing infrastructure and fit the company's underground mining skill set, so building them in-house yields significantly higher value than selling or partnering. They will still consider financing options and offtake for risk mitigation but are comfortable funding the projects from the group.
SA gold unit costs and mix
Q (Henrika Ninham · Investec): The analyst asked whether the current SA gold all-in sustaining costs are the new normal before Burnstone, excluding DRD.
A: Management gave per-kilo costs: including DRD ZAR 1.6 million per kilogram, excluding DRD ZAR 1.8 million per kilogram, with DRD at ZAR 1 million per kilogram. They noted cost pressures from electricity, water pumping and shaft maintenance and guided full-year gold unit costs to ZAR 1.75 to ZAR 1.84 million per kilogram, saying some elevated spend is one-off investment to secure future life.
dividend policy and debt target
Q (Henrika Ninham): The analyst asked when dividends might be increased to peer levels and what would trigger a change.
A: Management reiterated the dividend policy of 25%–35% of normalised earnings and said they follow a roughly one-third split between dividends, debt reduction and growth until gross debt is reduced by 50%. They would revisit capital allocation and dividend levels once the 50% gross debt reduction is achieved.
strategy for Stillwater despite past losses
Q (Henrika Ninham): The analyst asked whether keeping Stillwater is worth the effort given past losses, and if it remains core.
A: Management said Stillwater is strategically important as one of few PGM jurisdictions outside Russia and southern Africa. They acknowledged past poor returns at low prices but said they have a mechanisation plan targeting about $1,000 an ounce; if the plan fails they will reassess, but for now Stillwater remains core while they try to reach sustainable productivity.
Century tailings and phosphate option
Q (Ephrem Ravi · Citi): The analyst asked about end-of-life Century zinc tailings, nearby phosphate project interest and whether the group would invest in phosphate.
A: Management said Century has 12–18 months of mining left and they are in discussions with the partner about using infrastructure for a phosphate (PhosOne) project, but phosphate is not part of Sibanye's strategy and they would not invest capital into it; they might realise value from existing infrastructure instead.
Keliber refinery decision factors
Q (Ephrem Ravi): The analyst asked what drives the decision to start the Keliber refinery to make battery-grade product: prices or customer contracts?
A: Management said the refinery decision depends on concentrator grade stability, market conditions for lithium (price environment) and concentrate quality; a refinery is long-run and not easy to mothball, so they will judge late in the year whether to proceed to battery-grade based on grade, market and quality assessments.
follow-up on Keliber sequencing
Q (Henrika Ninham): The analyst sought final clarification on sequencing: concentrator ramp-up, grade, then refinery hot commissioning timing.
A: Management confirmed Stage 1 (mining) exceeded stockpile targets, concentrator commissioning is underway to reach grade targets, and the refinery hot commissioning decision is late-year taking into account market and ore quality, with expected refinery hot commissioning into 2027 if they proceed.