RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC earnings calls

fuel cost and capacity returning

Q (Jaime Rowbotham · Deutsche Bank): Analyst asked if capacity cut this winter could return next summer and whether Ryanair will hedge the EUR 2 billion fuel headwind. Also asked how much can be recovered via fares, cuts, and savings.

A: Management said they do not expect much of that capacity to return to Europe because lessors will redeploy aircraft to other regions. They will opportunistically hedge and have increased cover from 15% to 25% but do not expect to fully recover the EUR 2 billion; recovery depends on where fares go.

"Will we recover all of the EUR 2 billion? I do not think so, but it all very much hinges on where fares go." — Neil Sorahan

MAX 10 delivery count

Q (Dudley Shanley · Goodbody): Analyst asked if Ryanair can get more than the 30 MAX 10s in the first two years and why one extra arrived this spring. Also asked confidence on long-term net income per passenger.

A: Management said Boeing offered one extra MAX 10 but cannot provide more because of production constraints. They are confident in longer-term margin goals, expecting consolidation and higher fares to help by 2030.

"There is no chance to get more than those 16 aircraft." — Michael O'Leary (CEO)

ENAA legal case and competition

Q (Jarrod Castle · UBS): Analyst asked for an update on the ENAA case and what it might mean for other airlines if successful. Also asked about the buyback sizing and timing.

A: Management said the ENAA case has no merit and they expect it to fail; they filed a complaint with the European Commission to investigate the coordination. On buybacks, they increased size to EUR 800 million and timed it to match cash flow (February–December).

"The case has no merit, and I think everyone accepts that it will fail, even Lufthansa and Air France themselves." — Juliusz Komorek

demand sensitivity to price rises

Q (Stephen Furlong · Davy): Analyst asked about price elasticity: will higher fares push passengers to trade down to Ryanair, and does it matter if Ryanair fares rise?

A: Management said they expect material capacity constraints in Europe next year, which will push fares up. They do not expect significant trade-down into Ryanair because legacies may reimpose fuel surcharges and Ryanair is only growing capacity by 3%.

"I think there is going to be material capacity constraints in Europe next year." — Michael O'Leary (CEO)

CapEx and ticket sales

Q (Savi Syth · Raymond James): Analyst asked about FY2028 potential CapEx changes and how much of December and March quarter tickets are sold so far.

A: Management said FY27 CapEx is expected to be close to about EUR 2 billion, and FY28 remains between about EUR 2.7 billion and EUR 3 billion. They also said December quarter is about 50% sold and the March quarter about 8% sold.

"FY27, we're expecting to be fairly close to about EUR 2 billion CapEx." — Neil Sorahan

capacity guidance and opportunities

Q (Conor Dwyer · Citi): Analyst asked how firm the 3% passenger growth guide is and whether Ryanair might use older planes or buy secondhand jets; also asked about talks with airports.

A: Management said they will add the 3% using the MAX 10 aircraft and expect market capacity broadly flat or slightly down next summer as weak airlines fail. They prefer growth opportunities with airports offering incentives rather than buying secondhand aircraft, which are likely to be redeployed outside Europe.

"Our capacity, we will grow. We will add the 3% capacity into summer because we will use the MAX 10 aircraft." — Jason McGuinness

pay freezes and onboard Wi-Fi (Starlink)

Q (James Hollins · BNP Paribas): Analyst asked about expected resistance to pay freezes given a buyback, and Michael's view on Starlink Wi-Fi adoption.

A: Management said many pay agreements already done and they will negotiate early deals to avoid freezes; if groups wait past April they risk a pay freeze and strikes which the company can accept. On Starlink, they said the system adds a 1.5% fuel drag, so they will not fit it if it increases fuel burn and they doubt passengers will pay for Wi-Fi on short flights.

"Starlink is a very good system, but the technology has a 1.5% fuel drag." — Michael O'Leary (CEO)

timing of fare inflection

Q (Duane Pfennigwerth · Evercore): Analyst asked when Ryanair will see clear fare growth proving pricing power — this fiscal year or next?

A: Management said the fare inflection has already started: fares turned from down in Q1/Q2 to modestly up since early August. They expect this trend to continue into Q3 and Q4 as competitors cut capacity, creating tighter market conditions.

"I think we have already hit the inflection point." — Michael O'Leary (CEO)

ancillaries and cost saves timing

Q (Harry Gowers · JPMorgan): Analyst asked whether ancillaries can offset fuel and for numbers on ex-fuel cost initiatives and timing of their impact.

A: Management said ancillaries are roughly 1% for the full year and largely capped; they are using dynamic pricing and small initiatives like Order to Seat. On ex-fuel savings, some benefits come from airport deals now and more detail will follow in the budget process; MAX deliveries will also help.

"We will probably see roughly 1% for the full year." — Tracey McCann

churn effect and hedging timing

Q (Andrew Lobbenberg · Barclays): Analyst asked if route churn lowers unit revenue and how fuel hedges are weighted across the year and into summer.

A: Management said churn is into routes and airports that reduce costs and often raise yields at airports they reduce capacity from, so no yield penalty seen; hedges are spread evenly across quarters, with a blended rate and a plan to lift H1 cover toward 50% before summer.

"That's spread pretty evenly across all four quarters." — Neil Sorahan

fare path and unit cost inflation

Q (Axel Stasse · Morgan Stanley): Analyst asked whether Q3 modestly up means mid-single digits and Q4 high single/double digits, and asked for unit cost inflation excluding fuel for next year.

A: Management said Q3 modestly up is likely mid-single digits and Q4 will show higher increases but is distorted by Easter timing; they will finalise unit cost guidance in the budget process and said ex-fuel unit costs for FY27 are still expected up maybe 2%-3% on the full year.

"Q4 will be up double-digit percent, but Q4 is artificial because we get both halves of Easter in March next year, and therefore it is a slightly distorted figure." — Michael O'Leary (CEO)

unit revenues and ownership costs

Q (Jaime Rowbotham · Deutsche Bank): Analyst asked why September quarter unit revenues guidance weakened despite better close-in booking trends, and whether there are one-off items in ownership D&A and maintenance that explain higher per-passenger ownership costs.

A: Management said pricing weakened after geopolitical events and booking patterns moved later, so close-in fares improved but not enough to offset earlier discounting; they now expect Q2 pricing down low to mid-single digits and see weaker near-term pricing. On ownership costs, they flagged amortization for LEAP mid-life visits starting and more frequent NG maintenance because NGs are older; added fleet also increased ownership per passenger but that should slow later in the year.

"On the ownership, nothing that we didn't flag with the full year numbers in May." — Neil Sorahan (CFO)

airport queues and cost outlook

Q (James Hollins · BNP Paribas): Analyst asked if airport queues/EES rules might ease for the rest of summer and whether airport issues affect bookings; also asked if 2%-3% ex-fuel unit cost rise is sensible for the full year.

A: Management said airport queues are a known issue at about 15 airports but unlikely to stop travel; Europeans could suspend EES until October and queues should ease into Q3/Q4. On costs, they expect unit cost to tick up in H2 and suggested 3%–4% as a prudent guide rather than 2%–3%, but it won't be above mid-single digits.

"I don't think airport queues are really that significant, certainly in the second quarter." — Michael O'Leary (CEO)

winter capacity and easyJet assets

Q (Alex Irving · Bernstein): Analyst asked how winter capacity will evolve for the sector and the chance of meaningful competitor cuts; and whether parts of easyJet would interest Ryanair if sold (slots, Airbus sub-fleet, holidays business).

A: Management expects announced market winter capacity growth near 5% is unrealistic; Ryanair plans about 2% growth this winter and expects competitors will pare back capacity. On easyJet, management said they would not be interested in buying parts like aircraft orders or easyJet holidays and think any buyer would monetize the fleet and order book, accelerating consolidation.

"Ryanair, we will be growing by around 2% this winter." — Eddie Wilson (CEO)

EU carry-on advertising rule and ETS

Q (Savanthi Syth · Raymond James): Analyst asked if Ryanair needs tech changes to show two fares (including higher fare) and whether the EU ETS change this year would raise more than the stated EUR 200 million exposure.

A: Management said the passenger-rights rule forces airlines to advertise a fare that includes two carry-on bags even though under 50% of bookings will use it, and Ryanair will display both prices with banners and an opt-out to reduce fare. On ETS, management criticized the policy as discriminatory and said Europe should either tax everyone equally or move to CORSIA; they view the ETS expansion negatively but said the direct impact on their routes (e.g., Albania, Morocco) would be minor.

"Passengers 99.9% will still go on our website, what's the cheapest airfare?" — Michael O'Leary (CEO)

union deals and carry-on rule impact

Q (Harry Gowers · JPMorgan): Analyst asked for an update on collective labour agreements (CLAs) and whether new EU carry-on rules will affect Ryanair's revenues or operations.

A: Management said most CLAs are done in large markets and a few remain in advanced negotiations; some ballots and pilot negotiations are ongoing and costs from completed CLAs have already come through. On the baggage rules, management expects the change to be revenue neutral based on Italy experience and thinks many customers will opt out of the higher bundled fare, so no material revenue impact.

new jet programs and engine challenges

Q (Stephen Furlong · Davy): Analyst asked for comments on industry talk of a new jet program by 2030 and for an update on engine shops and supply chain.

A: Management said talk of a new jet program is overblown and the current Airbus NEOs and Boeing MAXs will dominate for the next 15–20 years; the real industry challenge is engines and engine maintenance. They are building two in-house engine MRO shops, have a supply contract with CFM, and expect in-house maintenance to deliver a material cost advantage.

"The challenge is going to be the engines, not the airframe." — Michael O'Leary (CEO)

fuel hedging and onboard Wi-Fi

Q (Jarrod Castle · UBS): Analyst asked about FY 2028 fuel hedging approach after hedging 15%, and whether Ryanair's view on onboard Wi-Fi/Starlink has changed given Wizz's move.

A: Management said they will be opportunistic on hedging, dipping in and out as market conditions make sense given continued volatility, and they executed 15% hedges recently. On Wi-Fi, management said they won't copy Wizz; they prefer to wait until technology has no fuel penalty and they can keep revenue opportunities rather than giving away revenues to suppliers.

"We would not be rushing to copy anything Wizz do." — Michael O'Leary (CEO)

fuel supply and bookings visibility

Q (Tom Fowler · BofA): Analyst asked if jet fuel supply is secure despite Middle East tensions and what portion of August/September bookings are already sold; also why management expects pricing declines in H2 if capacity cuts occur.

A: Management said they have seen no jet fuel supply issues so far and have good visibility into late August and in some places to year-end, expecting reserves to refill unless the Middle East escalates further. For bookings, August is about 75% sold and September around 40%; pricing is expected to decline low to mid-single digits unless competitors materially cut capacity, which could then lift pricing.

fuel supply and booking details

Q (Muneeba Kayani · BofA): Analyst asked again about jet fuel supply risk with re-escalation and requested booking percentages for August and September to judge visibility on fare guidance; also asked why pricing might fall in H2 despite possible capacity cuts.

A: Management said they haven't seen supply issues to date and Europe's jet fuel mainly comes from the Americas, West Africa, Norway, and Russia, so they see no immediate disruption. They reported August is about 75% sold and September about 40% sold; they expect fares to continue to decline but noted capacity cuts by competitors or failures could materially improve pricing later in the year.

"No. Look, we haven't seen any issues to date." — Tom Fowler

medium-term fares and staff productivity

Q (Conor Dwyer · Citi): Analyst asked how Ryanair can grow traffic while keeping or lifting fares long-term, and whether elevated crew ratios can fall further to improve unit costs.

A: Management said medium-term they expect consolidation and competitor unit cost pressures will either force capacity cuts or failures, which should support fares and help Ryanair gain share; Ryanair sees this year as temporary weakness due to geopolitical and timing factors. On staff and crew ratios, management said productivity has improved with the fleet returning to full complement and MAX 10s will add more productivity; some elevated ratios will persist but MAX 10s will have a big impact.

"We have front-loaded some of the pay in the CLAs this year, so it'll be slower into next year." — Neil Sorahan (CFO)

airport deal trends and profit per passenger goal

Q (Dudley Shanley · Goodbody): Analyst asked whether airports are offering better deals now given competitor weakness, and whether Ryanair still expects to reach EUR 12–EUR 14 net income per passenger medium-term.

A: Management said many airports are nervous about anchor carriers and are offering improved, volume-related deals; they cited examples of Dublin, Vienna, and Bratislava where incentives and fee changes affected flows. On EUR 12–EUR 14 per passenger, management remained confident, pointing to cost deals, upcoming engine shops, MAX 10 benefits, and widening unit cost advantage as the path to that target.

"You can see things happening that we haven't seen for a long time, where Dublin Airport costs are actually going back this year." — Eddie Wilson (CEO)

ancillary revenue and market weakness

Q (Ruairi Cullinane · RBC): Analyst asked why ancillary revenue per passenger has been flat recently and whether there are specific markets showing fare weakness in H1.

A: Management said ancillary revenue was flat this quarter, partly due to Easter timing, and they expect ancillaries to grow about 1%–2% for the remainder of the year through dynamic pricing and product mix. On fare trends, they pointed to general consumer uncertainty tied to Gulf events and the World Cup, with more capacity-driven weakness in Central and Eastern Europe and the U.K., but no specific regional callouts beyond capacity effects.

"Ancillary pretty much, as we said, so flat in this quarter, but some of that is the Easter impact." — Tracey McCann

EU ownership reporting and RCF usage

Q (Andrew Lobbenberg · Barclays): Analyst asked about the EU ownership stake/ADR premium trend and why the RCF is mostly undrawn despite strong cash balances.

A: Management said the last reported EU ownership was 30% and the next report will be at end-September, disclosed in November with H1 results; Europeans buying ADRs may explain the rising ADR premium. On the RCF, they have EUR 40 million drawn to keep banks engaged but plan to draw more in the Sept–Dec quarter when cash goes negative, targeting around EUR 4 billion gross cash as a comfort level.

"Next report will be as at the end of September." — Juliusz Komorek

ETS extension and heat wave impact

Q (Marc Zeck · Kepler Cheuvreux): Analyst asked what share of passenger revenue is newly affected by the 5,000 km ETS radius change, and whether recent heat waves have weighed on yields or changed travel patterns.

A: Management said ETS extension would cover routes to Albania and Morocco and would have minor impact on Ryanair routes, but criticized ETS as discriminatory versus non-European carriers and advocated CORSIA instead. On heat waves, management said they see no systemic change in booking or travel patterns and no material impact on operations or yields from this summer's heat.

"I don't think there's any systemic change in booking patterns." — Eddie Wilson (CEO)

CapEx, buybacks and gearing

Q (Axel Stasse · Morgan Stanley): Analyst asked for CapEx guidance for 2028–2029 considering engine shops and Boeing deliveries, and what gearing level gives leeway for future buybacks beyond EUR 750 million completed.

A: Management guided FY 2027 CapEx close to EUR 2 billion and FY 2028 around EUR 2.7 billion–EUR 3 billion. On buybacks and gearing, they said no further buyback this year, will reassess in spring 2027 once heavy engine shop CapEx is clearer, and they have no fixed gearing target—debt use will depend on cost and surplus cash will go to shareholders while they rebuild gross cash toward EUR 4 billion.

"CapEx current year, FY 2027 unchanged from what we'd previously guided, so somewhere close to EUR 2 billion." — Neil Sorahan (CFO)