Oct 29, 2026 earnings call — Pricing-led growth, Environmental Solutions momentum
Updated full-year revenue guidance to a range of $17.425 billion to $17.475 billion.
Revenue $4.6B (est $4.4B) · EPS $1.94 (est $1.93) · Next-quarter revenue outlook $17.4B–$17.5B
Key quotes
"Strong pricing across the business remained the primary driver of organic revenue growth during the third quarter. Core price on related revenues was 6.3%, which is relatively consistent with our second quarter performance."
"Organic revenue in the Environmental Solutions business increased 21% compared to the prior year and contributed 2.1% to total company revenue growth in the third quarter."
"AI-enabled pricing technology is now deployed across the business, providing enhanced insights to support pricing decisions that reflect service requirements and market conditions."
Analyst Q&A 13
Environmental Solutions growth and margins
Q (Sabahat Khan · RBC): They asked for more color on the ES segment in Q3: top-line, margin progression, and what is embedded for Q4. They also asked if mid-single-digit volume trends should be more positive sequentially across the platform.
A: Management said they saw momentum into the second half, with the sales pipeline building and a number of confirmed jobs starting in Q3. They noted a couple large emergency response jobs helped produce an outsized outcome, but strip those away and ES was still up 9%. They expect recycling and waste to tip positive in 2027 and plan to match or beat the market on volume.
"But I think we mentioned you strip that away, we're still up 9%." — Jon Vander Ark (CEO)
Drivers of updated EBITDA outlook
Q (Bryan Burgmeier · Citi): They asked for a bridge on the updated 2026 EBITDA outlook and whether ES beat the quarter versus their model. They also asked about sustainable margins in ES after strong moves this year.
A: Management said at the midpoint revenue is up about $200 million versus the prior guide, with $150 million of that related to fuel fees and $50 million related to Environmental Solutions, most from a handful of large emergency response jobs. They expect about $10 million of EBITDA help from fuel fee catch-up and about $15 million of EBITDA from ES, which together explain roughly $25 million of incremental EBITDA at the midpoint. They also reiterated a goal of expanding ES margins 30 to 50 basis points over time and said trends should be measured across years, not quarters.
"So at the midpoint, revenue is up about $200 million on the revenue and $150 million of that or so is related to fuel fees." — Brian Delghiaccio (CFO)
Yield pressure from new customers
Q (Noah Kaye · Oppenheimer): They asked about the yield dynamics tied to volume: why new business can start at lower prices and whether this will continue if volumes improve. They also asked if other unusual items remain for 4Q after the health care cost spike.
A: Management said growth comes from service increases and new customers, and those new units are profitable but often below the average rate, which puts arithmetic downward pressure on yield. They described a unique quarter effect from a landfill diesel price spike and a one-time health care cost that has receded in October. Brian said there is nothing significant to call out for fourth quarter beyond what's included in the guide.
"And so that arithmetically puts downward pressure on yield, but it's profitable business." — Jon Vander Ark (CEO)
Customer pricing receptivity and costs
Q (Yehuda Silverman · Morgan Stanley): They asked how customers are receiving price increases, given higher fuel fees and inflation, and whether pricing receptivity has evolved. They also asked if the labor and benefit increase included the one-time health care cost.
A: Management said they monitor customer bill affordability and use tools to measure lifetime value, so they may back off slightly on pricing in some cases but core pricing metrics show positive receptivity. They emphasized getting price right to keep customers. Brian confirmed the one-time health care cost was mostly in the labor category.
"But in terms of the core price and what you're seeing in the metrics, really positive in terms of receptivity." — Jon Vander Ark (CEO)
AI timing and margin impact
Q (Jerry Revich · Wells Fargo): They asked how long AI initiatives (pricing, customer service automation, routing) will take to meaningfully impact costs and margins, and how large the phone service savings might be.
A: Management said pricing benefits are already visible, customer service shows small early gains, and the routing opportunity will roll out next year with most of the benefit realized in 2028. They said you will see some impact toward the back end of next year but the full benefit is a 2028 story, and they remain on track for a $100 million run rate EBITDA by the end of 2028. Brian reiterated the long-term growth algorithm calling for 30 to 50 basis points of margin expansion.
"So you'll see some impact towards the back end of next year, but that will really be a 2028 story in terms of getting the full benefit of that." — Jon Vander Ark (CEO)
Drivers of ES 9% growth and residential shedding
Q (Adam Bubes · Goldman Sachs): They asked what drove the 9% organic growth ex-event in ES: price versus volume and which business lines led. They also asked about the residential shedding timeline and whether down 2% still holds for 2027.
A: Management said the strength was a balance of both more volume and price, with notable pricing capture. They cited macro industrial drivers like PMI above 50, reshoring, and tech sector build-outs. They said residential shedding actions were taken last year, are being worked through this year, and that roughly a down 2% residential trend is likely for next year.
"You balance across both more volume and price, but certainly got our fair share on price." — Jon Vander Ark (CEO)
ES growth prospects and ER jobs
Q (Trevor Romeo · William Blair): They asked whether ES could be an above-average growth business in 2027 and what needs to happen, and how ER projects this year compared to a normal year and whether ER pricing reached equilibrium.
A: Management said they will keep building the pipeline and have high aspirations, and ES remains under 15% of the overall business so outsized ES performance can still fit within overall company targets. They said ER work is lumpy: they do thousands of ER jobs a year, most small, and the outsized jobs drive economics; this quarter they had a couple of larger jobs and used capabilities across recycling, waste, and field services to win them.
"It's the outsized jobs that can kind of drive the economics." — Jon Vander Ark (CEO)
Housing recovery effect on growth
Q (Tami Zakaria · JPMorgan): They asked how housing recovery would lift the long-term mid-single-digit growth algorithm and what was seen historically in past residential upcycles.
A: Management said they are optimistic long term about U.S. housing but pessimistic in the short to medium term, noting rates must come down to unlock moves and new construction. They said housing recovery will add large container temporary work, then residential units and small container demand, providing steady basis-point tailwinds rather than big percentage point lifts. Brian added that direct construction-related activity is about 6% to 7% of revenue.
"I think we're going to need to get the 10-year down and the interest rate down to unlock both people to move and investment in the new housing construction, which the country badly needs." — Jon Vander Ark (CEO)
Market share vs catch-up and margins
Q (Seth Weber · BNP Paribas): They asked whether the 9% ES growth ex-emergency is simply catch-up of delayed work or if RSG is taking share, and whether incremental margins could be outsized in 2027 as the business turns.
A: Management cautioned not to overinterpret a single quarter but said they see a reignition of growth in the sector and feel they are getting their fair share, perhaps more than fair share right now. On margins, they said it depends on mix and nature of work, but generally you get leverage on post-collection assets and labor so incremental margins can be attractive depending on mix.
"I think we're seeing a reignition of growth in the sector, and we're certainly getting our fair share, and we feel probably more than our fair share right now." — Jon Vander Ark (CEO)
Landfill costs and diesel outlook
Q (Shlomo Rosenbaum · Stifel): They asked whether RSG is seeing rising operational landfill costs that others have mentioned and if any regional regulation is affecting costs. They also asked what diesel price assumption is in 4Q '26.
A: Management said landfill costs depend on weather and location mix and that landfills are getting more expensive to operate, but their team is managing those costs and protecting landfill health across the cycle. They also said they work daily on regulation in state capitals. Brian said diesel peaked around $6.50 in September, sits around $6.35 today, and they expect it to approach $6 by year-end.
"Landfills are certainly getting more expensive to operate, but our team has done a really good job of managing those costs, getting in front of it and most importantly, protecting the health of those landfills across the cycle." — Jon Vander Ark (CEO)
M&A focus and residential mix
Q (Stephanie Benjamin Moore · Jefferies): They asked about the M&A environment: where attractive opportunities exist, whether focus is tuck-ins or larger deals, and what to expect on residential shedding timing and margin impact.
A: Management said the pipeline is mostly smaller tuck-ins and they expect to do somewhere around 25 acquisitions this year, most small tuck-ins, balanced across recycling and waste and ES. They said some municipal contracts acquired will be upgraded or exited because they don't meet returns, and they prefer price over volume. Brian added that shedding lower-profit residential work while gaining more profitable small and large container work will improve margins.
"We'll probably end up doing somewhere around 25 acquisitions this year, most of which will be small tuck-ins." — Jon Vander Ark (CEO)
ES incremental margins and volumes
Q (Kevin Chiang · CIBC): They asked whether incremental margins in ES are in the 30% to 50% range depending on mix and whether positive volume across small, large, and special waste could mean positive volumes in 2027 excluding intentional residential shedding.
A: Management said incremental margins depend on the type of work: revenue through post-collection infrastructure like TSDFs, landfills, and E&P can deliver those higher levels, while field and industrial services are accretive but not at that level. They said the market is starting to expand and, if the macro stays supportive, they would expect positive volume next year.
"So certainly, if you're getting it through your post-collection infrastructure, the TSDFs, the landfills, the E&P work, certainly, it can be those levels." — Brian Delghiaccio (CFO)
Landfill opportunities beyond gas
Q (Tobey Sommer · Truist): They asked what could provide a new multi-year catalyst (like landfill gas did) to lift growth over the next 3–8 years.
A: Management said they are evaluating everything that goes into the landfill and looking to divert or upcycle material via sustainability investments and advanced recycling. They highlighted organic material as the biggest current opportunity, saying it is 20% to 25% of landfill content and that projects over 3 to 5 years could become a meaningful revenue stream.
"The biggest opportunity we're pursuing right now is organic material, which is 20% to 25% of what shows up in a landfill." — Jon Vander Ark (CEO)