Jul 28, 2026 earnings call — Operational momentum and large shareholder payout
Rio reported underlying EBITDA of $14.8 billion and paid a $3.4 billion interim dividend, a 43% increase.
Revenue $31.0B (est $31.6B) · EPS $4.21 (est $4.09)
Key quotes
"Today, I can announce we are targeting a year-end run rate of $1.8 billion, almost triple where we were just 7 months ago."
"So we have industry-leading copper growth today, a clear path to 1 million tonnes by 2030, an exceptional portfolio of options to continue creating value well into the next decade."
"We are progressing around $5 billion of cash release opportunities in 2026 with a broader pipeline exceeding $10 billion."
Analyst Q&A 7
Pilbara ore grade and unions
Q (Lachlan Shaw): How the new replacement mines affect Pilbara iron ore grade, and how unionization might affect operations and productivity in the short and medium term.
A: Management said the replacement projects are similar to current material and Rhodes Ridge will bring better grade when mined. They said product strategy changes help stabilize flows and Pilbara unit costs have benefited. On unions, they said they will work with employees under local terms to keep safe, respectful workplaces and manage impacts over the years ahead.
"As we get into Rhodes Ridge, that's where some of that better grade material is." — Simon Trott (CEO)
Aluminum, tariffs and AI investment
Q (Baden Moore): Does recent U.S. 232 tariff activity change Rio's view on investing in U.S. smelters or in the AI-driven aluminum market?
A: Management said trade policy has increased and they must navigate it, as it affects aluminum flows. They praised Jerome and commercial for moving flows to respond, saying the impact to the business has been relatively modest. They see aluminum growing strongly to 2035 and want to be set up to manage changes nimbly.
"In the aluminum business specifically, I think Jerome working together with commercial has done a fantastic job in terms of being able to move flows around to respond to policy changes." — Simon Trott (CEO)
Iron ore productivity and Kennecott life
Q (Lyndon Fagan · JPMorgan): What makes up the extra $400 million productivity gains in iron ore, and what is needed to FID the Kennecott life extension and what it looks like after 2032?
A: They said the gains come from over 80 initiatives focused on giving front-line teams better tools and accountability and improving system flows from mine to port. This work let them stop redundant plant and free capacity, improving safety and cutting costs. On Kennecott, they are progressing quickly, expect a decision soon, and the extension would push life into the 2040s though co-commitments and geotech work remain.
"I'm sure iron ore is better run today and isn't that a good thing." — Simon Trott (CEO)
Mongolia tax dispute
Q (Kate McCutcheon · BofA): How should investors think about the Mongolia tax dispute now near $900 million and are there more decision points ahead?
A: They said some changes were embedded in the original investment decision and the shareholder loan has been revisited periodically. Management said they continue to engage closely with the Mongolian government and will resolve matters as part of the project, emphasizing strong community support. Separately, they noted there is a formal arbitration process to resolve the tax matter.
"So some of the changes you've seen us announce around Mongolia were embedded as part of that investment decision, looking at the shareholder loan, got revisited periodically." — Simon Trott (CEO)
Cost-out momentum after 2026
Q (Glyn Lawcock · Barrenjoey): Can the cost-out momentum and $1.8 billion program continue beyond 2026 and how should we think about the path forward?
A: They said this program is cultural change, not just budget cuts, and focuses on embedding continuous improvement via a management operating system. They want to simplify work and codify requirements so people can keep finding better ways to do things. They expect the program to mature but to sustain benefits if embedded in how people work.
"We need to embed that in each and every business." — Simon Trott (CEO)
Copper production after 2030
Q (Rahul Anand · Morgan Stanley): How will Rio de-risk copper production around Apex and Apex life extension, and are there brownfield or inorganic options to secure copper growth beyond 2030?
A: They said Tier 1 assets give optionality and cited growth from OT and KUC ramp-ups as building blocks toward 1 million tonnes by 2030. They emphasized safety and recovery at KUC after an earlier fatality and said Apex life extension would likely take it to the 2040s, with underground projects progressing. For OT, the priority is the ramp-up and using data to improve development, while they continue to look at next development sequences.
"So the great things about Tier 1 assets is the optionality they provide and it's true in copper." — Simon Trott (CEO)
Resolution project smelter need
Q (Lyndon Fagan): For the Resolution copper project, would Rio likely need to build a smelter in the U.S. given current policy focus?
A: They said a study will assess processing options and they expect the material to be processed in the U.S. Building a smelter is one option they will consider as part of that assessment, and they noted the KUC smelter is also available as part of future choices.
"We expect that material to be processed in the U.S." — Simon Trott (CEO)