FolioObs › Q2 HLDGS INC (QTWO) › Earnings calls

Q2 HLDGS INC earnings calls

QTWO · every analyst question and management's answer

Oct 28, 2026 earnings call — AI momentum and stronger profitability

Q3 revenue $225.8 million, adjusted EBITDA $67.8 million (30% margin), and raised full-year revenue to $888 million to $892 million.

Revenue $0.2B (est $0.2B) · EPS $0.74 (est $0.71)

Key quotes

"Our AI work remains focused on 3 practical priorities. Helping protect the institution, helping bankers operate more efficiently, and helping customers and partners build faster."

— Matthew Flake (CEO) · AI and developer tools

"The first was an approximately $3 billion credit union that selected our digital banking platform."

— Matthew Flake (CEO) · Credit unions and digital banking

"We forecast fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA in the range of $62.4 million to $65.4 million and we are raising full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA to the range of $253 million to $256 million representing approximately 28.6% of revenue at the midpoint."

— Jonathan A. Price (CFO) · Profitability and guidance

Analyst Q&A 11

AI agents demand and profitability

Q (Alex Sklar · Raymond James): Analyst asked how clients are responding to personal agents and if it opens up bigger customers; and asked CFO about whether recent strong EBITDA margins were timing or structural and how that flows into Q4 guide.

A: Management said customers see rapid product iteration and that flexibility to use or limit agents is important; engagement on AI is increasing. They said Q3 outperformance partly reflected spend that came online late in Q3 and will flow into Q4, while also citing structural mix shift to subscription and efficiency gains; they remain committed to investing into 2027.

"As far as agents go, we are building our platform and solution for all to explore agents however they want to do it." — Matthew Flake (CEO)

AI unit economics and subs growth

Q (Michael Infante · Morgan Stanley): Analyst asked about unit economics for AI—how much inference goes to third parties versus internal compute, and margins for agentic versus human-in-the-loop workflows; and a follow-up on confidence in the 12.5%–13% 2027 subscription ARR growth.

A: Management said early economics for new AI solutions look good in the early adopter phase, they use caps on tokens and base subscription fees plus upside tied to usage, but they don't yet know margins at scale. They said they feel very good and incrementally more confident about the 12.5% to 13% 2027 subs ARR target, noting recent strong quarterly subs growth helps the outlook.

"So we are getting in that regard, a gross margin outcome that we are pleased with in the EA phase." — Jonathan A. Price (CFO)

Fraud product adoption rate

Q (Eleanor Smith · JPMorgan): Analyst asked whether the share of digital banking customers using fraud products has changed since April and how high it could go longer term.

A: Management said the adoption rate is about the same including new customers and estimated it could reach 60% to 70% over the next 2 to 3 years, driven by product expansion like UAM and added capabilities. They emphasized continued product development and expect adoption to increase.

"So I think we will continue building products but the adoption of the product should continue I feel like we should be able to get to 60% to 70% in the next couple of years." — Matthew Flake (CEO)

Co-CEO roles and fraud platform

Q (Andrew Schmidt · KeyBanc): Analyst asked how Matthew and Jonathan will split co-CEO duties and any focus areas; then asked about the long-term vision for fraud/cyber and Q2's competitive position.

A: They said it will be a shared co-CEO structure with Matthew focusing on culture, customer relationships, and strategy while decisions are made collectively and reporting operates jointly; overall it's business as usual. On fraud, management said their data, signals, integrations, and operationalization give them a differentiated position to build a fraud intelligence platform and they are investing heavily to protect financial institutions.

"When we think about this future of what we are calling the fraud intelligence platform, there is a pretty clear view that we have that with our data, with our signals, and with our ability to continue building new products like UAM that we have talked about, we can have a differentiated ability to protect the financial institution and that ultimately is what it comes down to." — Jonathan A. Price (CFO)

AI risks and relationship pricing

Q (Bill · Piper Sandler): Analyst asked how Q2's platform and integration, security, auditability, and accountability protect its role from AI erosion; and asked about using cash or leverage to speed buybacks.

A: Management said the platform's deep operational investments—security, adapters, integrations, and operationalization—make their role hard to replicate and customers are leaning on them for AI journeys, shown by longer renewal durations. On buybacks, they said they want capital allocation flexibility, can deploy cash and free cash flow, could use leverage if compelling, and prioritize investing in the business and M&A optionality.

"When you think about some of the elements you mentioned, we, you know, we spent the last 20 plus years building all those things." — Jonathan A. Price (CFO)

Outcome-based fraud pricing and renewals

Q (Brett Huff · Stephens): Analyst asked if outcome-based pricing is working for fraud and whether customers are open to it generally; and asked how renewals and expansions are evolving as banks seek long-term partners.

A: Management clarified their fraud pricing pays them in addition to base platform for incremental businesses and consumers protected, not dollars of fraud stopped, so it resembles outcome pricing but is usage/value tied. They said renewals are healthy with strong economics, price increases, cross-sell, and longer durations, and that renewal quarters in Q3 were the strongest so far this year supporting future growth.

"What we are really doing on the fraud side is we are we are pricing it in a way where we get paid essentially in addition to the base platform for incremental businesses and consumers that we are protecting." — Jonathan A. Price (CFO)

Cross-sell and UAM revenue timing

Q (Truist): Analyst asked whether relationship pricing is cross-selling into digital banking and what is needed to expand cross-sell; also asked for revenue ramp or timing for UAM and broader AI products.

A: Management said relationship pricing is mainly sold into existing commercial customers but they are engaging to expand where fits and have sold fraud into some relationship pricing customers; they have no firm time frame. On UAM and AI revenue, they said it is early: customers are in production in early adopter phase but GA timing and pricing experimentation mean they cannot yet comment on revenue ramp; UAM GA should be late this year

"Part of an early adopter is more favorable pricing and also experimentation on pricing." — Jonathan A. Price (CFO)

Credit union strength and Helix progress

Q (Matthew VanVliet · Cantor Fitzgerald): Analyst asked what drove strength in credit union business—market change or internal efforts—and asked for an update on Helix customers and health across traditional vs nontraditional players.

A: Management said credit union strength reflects their single platform value for business banking, long-standing presence in credit unions, and sales and marketing focus, noting about half of users are credit union members. On Helix, they said top marquee fintech customers have become more profitability-focused and are healthy but not growing fast; net new fintech demand remains slow, so they are shifting messaging toward traditional FIs though traction there is still early.

"So our experience with cash management, we have advisory services where people can go out and help them and figure out. And teach them how to sell the products." — Matthew Flake (CEO)

2027 growth mix and AI pricing

Q (Parker Lane · Stifel): Analyst asked if 2027 growth will see bigger contributions from fraud and relationship pricing versus core, and whether AI is in the 2027 framework; follow-up on early-access pricing models for AI.

A: Management said AI is not meaningfully in the 2027 framework today and they expect faster growth from fraud while digital banking pipeline remains strong; relationship pricing has meaningful pipeline too. On AI pricing, they are learning a hybrid model resonates—base platform fee plus variable value levers tied to outcomes or usage—and pricing varies by product and customer, with positive early feedback.

"What we are seeing is all cases, that some form of hybrid model is what seems to be, resonating with the customers in terms of having some base platform fee that protects us and them against usage and, well, I will say, over usage." — Jonathan A. Price (CFO)

Fraud TAM and RPO seasonality

Q (Joseph Vruwink · Robert W. Baird): Analyst asked whether the previously stated $4 billion TAM for risk and fraud still holds given expanded surface area from personal agents, and asked about sequential RPO and renewal timing effects on backlog.

A: Management said their annual analysis suggests the $4 billion number was conservative and the expanding surface area likely increases opportunity, though monetization is hard to quantify yet. On RPO and renewals, they said many deals are 5-plus year durations with early renewals and Q4 is seasonally stronger, but they focus on renewal health, economics, and duration rather than quarter-to-quarter backlog.

"We certainly feel like it is a very large TAM and 1 that we are just sort of scratching the surface of the opportunity on." — Jonathan A. Price (CFO)

Innovation Studio and AI impact

Q (Cristopher Kennedy · William Blair): Analyst asked for an update on Innovation Studio and how AI affects that business opportunity.

A: Management said Innovation Studio is having a strong year across bookings, revenue, and adoption with over 200 partner products. They said AI is pervasive across Studio partners—new SKUs and enhanced existing SKUs leverage AI—creating a halo effect and distributed economics as they participate in partner technologies.

"Innovation Studio is having a phenomenal year." — Jonathan A. Price (CFO)

AI-generated notes on the earnings call transcript. Quotes are taken from the transcript. This is not a FolioObs investment view.

Q2 HLDGS INC (QTWO) · Earnings calendar

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