Aug 7, 2026 earnings call — Record profits with higher production and refining
Petrobras reported adjusted EBITDA of $20 billion this quarter, driven by record production and refining performance.
Revenue $33.6B (est $31.5B) · EPS $1.61 (est $1.40)
Key quotes
"In the second quarter of 2026, our goal was to produce 2.5 million barrels per day. We surpassed the goal of the second quarter by 200,000 barrels of oil per day."
"We also increased oil product output by 6% and reduced our imports by 40% versus the previous quarter."
"We, therefore, ended the quarter with gross debt of $70.8 billion and a net debt of $60.4 billion."
Analyst Q&A 13
Production growth and platform timing
Q (Bruno Montanari · Morgan Stanley): Analyst asked if the medium/long-term production plan is conservative, and whether P-80 will ramp up this year or be brought forward.
A: Management said pre-salt production is challenging but declines have fallen from 12% to about 4% per year. They described work to increase platform capacity and said P-80 and other platforms are being worked to bring production forward, with P-80 targeted for earlier start if possible but weather may limit changes.
"P-80 and P-82, the sailaway is scheduled for the third quarter of 2026 and production will start in the second quarter of 2027." — Renata Baruzzi
Guidance level and scheduled downtimes
Q (Sylvia Couto dos Anjos): Analyst asked about the production forecast, ramp-ups for P-78/P-79, and whether reaching top guidance is realistic.
A: Management said the forecast is based on a risk analysis and includes scheduled ramp-ups. They keep a leeway of about 4% and consider 2.6% a reasonable maximum, and they are focused on reducing downtime and improving platform integrity to protect production.
Diesel import decision
Q (Monique Greco · Itau BBA): Analyst asked how Petrobras decides to import diesel given current price volatility and local prices below import parity.
A: Management explained their production planning considers customer commitments, seasonal demand, refining availability, margins, and logistics. They said importing decisions follow the company policy and are based on competitiveness and profitability, with public policy affecting perceived prices.
"Our importing decisions are still based on the criteria of competitiveness and profitability." — Angelica Garcia Laureano
Sustainability of low decline rate
Q (Jorge Gabrich · Scotiabank): Analyst wanted to know how sustainable the roughly 4% decline rate in pre-salt production is going forward.
A: Management said the lower decline is the result of strict reservoir management across very large fields and world-class assets. They described technical measures like 4D seismic, intelligent completion, water injection, and supplemental wells as the main actions that reduce decline and sustain production.
"And the intelligent completion allows us to separate zones that produce water or gas, and we do an intelligent management of these areas." — Sylvia Couto dos Anjos
Use of extra cash flow
Q (Yuri Pereira · Santander): Analyst asked how additional cash flow this year will be allocated between refining, debt, dividends, and other priorities in the 2026-2030 plan.
A: Management said discussions are ongoing but they follow the dividend formula and prioritize debt reduction. Priority #1 is investments that generate returns and bring projects forward; Priority #2 is converging debt toward $16.5 billion, and extraordinary dividends are unlikely now.
"Priority #2 is to converge the debt as quickly as possible to $16.5 billion." — Fernando Melgarejo
Braskem stance and involvement
Q (Gabriel Coelho Barra · Citi): Analyst asked Petrobras' stance on Braskem, possible reorganization, capital injections, and conversations with bondholders.
A: Management said Petrobras recently gained more influence via a change in Braskem bylaws and is now reviewing the situation closely. They are examining options under the shareholders' agreement, are in contact with Braskem's Board, and cannot disclose more due to sensitivity and pending events.
"And since then, we are looking into all our options within the agreement we have with shareholders." — Fernando Melgarejo
Gas price policy and international projects
Q (Lilyanna Yang · HSBC): Analyst asked about Petrobras' role in lowering gas prices for consumers, where gas from Sergipe will be sold, and updates on Namibia, Sao Tome, and other international investments.
A: Management said regulatory changes will require reassessment of projects and Petrobras must remain profitable; they will comment in public hearings. They noted Petrobras is about 15.6% of the gas market, many competitors and terminals exist, and Petrobras will speak publicly in the next 45 days via a hearing about the draft regulatory proposal.
"Petrobras will speak up in the next 45 days via a public hearing, and that's our position." — William Nozaki
International focus for exploration
Q (Tasso Vasconcellos · UBS): Analyst asked where Petrobras would focus international exploration and expansion if it proceeds—regions like Mexico, Venezuela, Bolivia, Africa were mentioned.
A: Management said their core competence is deep and ultra-deep water geology, so they focus on areas geologically similar to Brazil like the Atlantic coast of Africa, Mexico, and the Equatorial margin. They are collecting seismic data under nonbinding MOUs and will form opinions on which areas add value after analysis.
"So so far, we are collecting seismic data and further ahead, we will have an opinion on what areas could be interesting to us." — Sylvia Couto dos Anjos
Refining plan and downtime timing
Q (Milene Carvalho · JPMorgan): Analyst asked about crack spreads expectations for H2 and the timing/duration of refinery downtimes given refining run over 102%.
A: Management said Q3 is seasonally higher diesel demand so their operating plan aims to maximize refinery use and minimize imports. They will import as needed but there is no diesel shortage, and planning is coordinated closely with refining to meet demand.
"So given that context, we have an operating planning that's done in close conjunction with refining so as to maximize the use of our refineries so as to minimize imports." — Angelica Garcia Laureano
Specific refinery downtimes and expansions
Q (William da Silva): Analyst asked for clarification on postponed downtimes (REGAP, REPLAN) and which downtimes will occur, plus impact on diesel production and refinery reliability.
A: Management clarified they postponed REGAP and REPLAN downtimes to early 2027 to align with expansion readiness, but the only major scheduled downtime now is Cubatao in August and other downtimes are minor. They highlighted refinery expansions and optimizations that will raise diesel output and noted recent records in diesel production and high utilization with good safety metrics.
Tupi, Equatorial margin, Alto de Cabo Frio
Q (Rodrigo Reis de Almeida · BTG): Analyst asked for updates on Tupi concession talks, the project ending next year, and news on the Equatorial margin and Alto de Cabo Frio Central.
A: Management said Tupi is under negotiation and they cannot comment further now. For the Equatorial margin they are drilling FCA-49 and awaiting permits for three contingent wells, with one well still 500 meters from the reservoir; Alto de Cabo Frio Central is under detailed technical assessment with partners due to fiscal complexities.
"But there are still 500 meters to go to reach the reservoir." — Sylvia Couto dos Anjos
Rare metals and Jupiter basin interest
Q (Vicente Falanga Neto · Bradesco BBI): Analyst asked how much Petrobras plans to invest in rare metals or Jupiter basin exploration, noting these may be outside core focus.
A: Management said they are evaluating many opportunities but currently have no investment commitments in rare metals or the Jupiter basin. Any investment would require governance approval and economic feasibility assessments using their $50,000 flat metric to ensure fit with company ambitions.
"We currently have no commitment in terms of investing in what you mentioned." — Fernando Melgarejo
M&A, licensing, ethanol, Mataripe timing
Q (Caio Ribeiro · BofA): Analyst asked about M&A priorities, returning to retail licensing, ethanol plans, possibility of buying Mataripe refinery, and timing for decisions.
A: Management said they follow the strategic plan and may add opportunistic moves if value accretive, will honor the noncompete with Vibra, and Mataripe due diligence is ongoing with no progress to report. They confirmed ethanol is a priority and negotiations continue; distribution and LPG moves remain strategic and any developments will be communicated in due time.
"In terms of position, we have the noncompete with Vibra, and this will be honored in full." — Fernando Melgarejo