Jul 30, 2026 earnings call — Affirmed 2026 EBITDA guidance; project updates
Pembina reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $4.35 billion to $4.55 billion and said it is trending to the midpoint.
Revenue $1.5B (est $1.4B) · EPS $0.48 (est $0.49)
Key quotes
"Over the past quarter, within capture, we placed RFS IV fractionator into service in late May on time and under budget, adding 55,000 barrels per day of propane plus fractionation capacity at the Redwater Complex, further strengthening our industry-leading NGL franchise."
"Equally important, the project was accompanied by an expansion of our long-term commercial relationship with Dow, increasing contracted ethane supply volumes by 15% and reinforcing the strength of our integrated NGL platform."
"Yesterday, Pembina reaffirmed its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $4.35 billion to $4.55 billion, and we are currently trending towards the midpoint of that range."
Analyst Q&A 11
condensate needs from West Coast pipeline
Q (Jeremy Tonet · JPMorgan Securities,): Analyst asked how a big West Coast oil pipeline would affect condensate demand and whether that condensate would come from in-basin production, Cochin expansions, or imports. He also asked about clustering potential for data centers tied to Greenlight.
A: Management said a 1 million barrels a day West Coast oil pipeline could require about 300,000 barrels a day of incremental condensate and they expect most of that condensate to come from the WCSB, citing resources in the Montney and Duvernay. They said they are preparing system expansions and debottlenecks for strong condensate growth, noted the need to find homes for the associated natural gas and NGLs, and said Cochin capacity was increased and remains in high demand. On Greenlight they said customer interest and clustering potential are high and the team is already working on the next phase and land consolidation.
"If the West Coast oil pipeline goes ahead 1 million barrels a day, -- that's going to require somewhere in the neighborhood of 300,000 barrels a day of incremental condensate." — J. Burrows (CEO)
Greenlight timing and condensate economics
Q (Theresa Chen · Barclays): Analyst asked if Phase 2 timeline will be faster and about size/scope, and asked the marginal cost difference between in-basin condensate and imported condensate plus Cochin expansion economics beyond 120,000 b/d.
A: Management said they cannot give exact timing but are moving quickly, and referenced AESO Phase 2 and the bring-your-own-power process as timing guides while using the same proven project model. They said condensate economics are market-driven, domestic condensate is very competitive, and it is still too early to share marginal-cost math or detailed expansion economics without customer commercial support.
"I can't really give a guide on exact timing, but I can sort of tell you we're moving quickly and with pace, but very much in a similar vein to how we've done on the last round." — Chris Scherman
2030 growth outlook and pipeline rationale
Q (Spiro Dounis · Citi): Analyst asked how the recently sanctioned projects affect the 2030 growth outlook and whether remaining opportunities can lift growth above the 7% end. He also asked why Pembina is participating in the West Coast oil pipeline and how they will protect capital.
A: Management said they have derisked a material portion of the 2026–2030 growth outlook and that remaining growth comes from core volume growth and core capital investments, with industry activity being the biggest near-term lever; they noted historical liquids growth was in the 2% to 3% range but some customers now expect multiyear growth above that. On the West Coast pipeline they said the project fits their "connect" strategy, they want to play a complementary consortium role, and they will apply their usual risk-return and financial guardrails when deciding how much to commit.
"So when I think about the strategy, this fits clearly in the connect bucket." — J. Burrows (CEO)
Greenlight template and Midwest gas opportunities
Q (Praneeth Satish · Wells Fargo): Analyst asked if future Greenlight phases will follow Phase 1's economics and risk profile, and whether Pembina might expand downstream of Aux Sable to serve Midwest demand.
A: Management said future Greenlight phases are being targeted to follow a similar commercial structure as Phase 1: long-term, fixed-fee, low-risk arrangements aligned with Pembina's model. On downstream expansion they said their focus is more on unlocking incremental gas egress out of Western Canada to enable condensate growth and they are more inclined to move gas into the Midwest rather than extend existing gas volumes further down the value chain.
"So still in motion certainly and still underway, but future phases, we're targeting to structure them in a similar way to Phase 1." — Chris Scherman
basin growth assumptions and funding
Q (Aaron MacNeil · TD Cowen): Analyst asked what basin growth assumptions underpinned the April guidance and how sensitivity to faster production would affect Pembina. He also asked what market conditions would lead Pembina to deviate from self-funding growth.
A: Management said the April update embedded historical liquids volume growth, noting liquids grew about 2% to 3% over the past 4 to 5 years and that their growth would move roughly percentage point for percentage point with basin growth. They said higher crude egress and condensate needs would likely require more fractionation capacity, and that their leverage guardrail is 3.5x to 4.25x senior debt to EBITDA and they would consider moving beyond that only with a clear path back toward their target range and a mitigated risk profile.
"We've seen liquids volume growth over the past 4 to 5 years in that 2% to 3% range, and that's effectively what we embedded in our outlook." — Cameron Goldade (CFO)
West Coast FID steps and Greenlight growth plans
Q (Maurice Choy · RBC): Analyst asked what must happen between now and FID for the West Coast oil pipe, and whether Pembina plans to grow Greenlight beyond the current site or pursue IPP/merchant power.
A: Management said typical FID prerequisites apply: regulatory approval with conditions, a competitive cost estimate, and a required level of contracted volumes, and they expect much of this work over the next 18 months. They also said merchant power or being an independent power producer does not fit their model and that they plan to pursue more deals structured like Greenlight rather than move into merchant IPP activity.
"I mean, clearly, we'll need to have a regulatory approval with conditions under which we can construct." — J. Burrows (CEO)
pre-FID projects and Clearwater progress
Q (George Burwell · Jefferies): Analyst asked which pre-FID projects are nearest or furthest and specifically for an update on the Nipisi/Clearwater pipeline progress. He also asked about the West Coast pipeline capital multiple question.
A: Management said Clearwater has seen strong growth and is filling existing pipeline capacity; they are working with producers and are in commercial negotiations to chart a path to expand the pipe in the not-too-distant future. They added they are studying butane value enhancement and incremental egress solutions, are working with customers on timing, and that capital allocation for West Coast will follow the same return-and-risk framework as other investments.
"We're working with producers today and still to chart a path forward that works for both of us and optimistic about the potential to expand that pipe in the not-too-distant future." — Chris Scherman
fractionation location and Cedar LNG risk
Q (Robert Catellier · CIBC): Analyst asked whether fractionation closer to the West Coast makes sense versus Redwater/Edmonton, and what remaining risks exist for Cedar LNG to hit first cargoes in 2028.
A: Management said the Edmonton/Fort Saskatchewan fractionation complex offers scale, redundancy, storage and multiple rail routes, making it a competitive and scalable option, while niche west-coast shipments can work for some customers but are relatively small. On Cedar LNG they said construction is tracking well and the main remaining unknown is the final hookup and commissioning of the ship, since other project elements are progressing on schedule.
"We absolutely believe the size and scale of the Edmonton area does provide the customers with a significant amount of redundancy, storage, rail, egress." — Jaret Sprott
global ethane demand and storage
Q (Sumantra Banerjee · UBS): Analyst asked for high-level commentary on global ethane demand in light of amendments with Dow and whether Pembina sees incremental storage opportunities.
A: Management said Dow's announcement has grown ethane demand in Western Canada but the basin still has length; there is potential to move ethane to Asian markets and they are studying the costs and logistics with partners. On storage they said opportunities vary by product: crude storage is backwardated with some capacity, they take advantage of seasonal NGL storage and have a substantial position, and they had no new insights on gas storage.
"We've spent time understanding and continue to spend time understanding the cost structure and all the rest of it associated with getting that product to Asia." — Chris Scherman
West Coast milestones and M&A appetite
Q (Benjamin Pham · BMO): Analyst asked key milestones to reach FID for the West Coast pipeline, when nonbinding commitments become binding, and whether Pembina has appetite for other oil pipes or U.S. M&A.
A: Management said near-term milestones include targeting an October 1 designation under the Building Canada Act, finishing definitive agreements around the same time, then proceeding with regulatory applications toward an FID and targeting early commencement of operations next fall. They said they are focused on West Coast oil pipelines now, and on M&A they are mainly looking at tuck-in opportunities that fit strategically while executing their organic growth program.
"So the first milestone as we look forward is really targeting that October 1 designation under the Building Canada Act." — Sarah Schwann
ownership of gas-to-power and pipeline integration
Q (Robert Hope · Scotiabank): Analyst asked if future gas-to-power expansions would be done with Kineticor or could Pembina be 100% owner, and whether the new West Coast pipeline could operate jointly with Trans Mountain or normalize ownership interests.
A: Management said they are pleased with the Kineticor partnership and that the current team and partnership will be the vehicle they use to pursue investments in this space. On the West Coast pipeline they said to think of it as a completely independent project from Trans Mountain, with independent owners and independent development, and that combining systems is not being contemplated at this stage.
"Robert, I would say at this time and stage, you should think about them as two completely independent projects with independent owners and independent development." — J. Burrows (CEO)