Oct 20, 2026 earnings call — Diversification and CBX offset weak traffic
Revenues excluding construction rose 13.2% while EBITDA grew 19.2% to MXN 6.1 billion and EBITDA margin reached 67.8%.
Revenue $0.6B (est $0.7B) · EPS $2.69 (est $2.72)
Key quotes
"During the third quarter, GAP's 14 airports handled approximately 18.4 million passengers, representing a 1.4% decrease compared to the same period last year."
"During the third quarter, CBX generated revenues of MXN 775 million, with approximately 1 million passengers using the facility in both directions."
"For discretionary growth projects, we continue to evaluate expected returns, execution risk and capital needs before committing resources."
Analyst Q&A 8
Winter traffic and CBX pricing
Q (Rodolfo Ramos · Bradesco BBI): Asked about how traffic will shape up this winter and whether guidance implies a big uptick. Also asked how much more CBX pricing can rise from the current $43 per user and capture-rate plans for 2027.
A: Management said they expect a strong winter recovery in Jamaica, with almost 90% of original seats returning, and more seats for Puerto Vallarta and Cabos after Thanksgiving; new international routes have begun in Guadalajara. For CBX, they are increasing capture rate through marketing, will apply seasonal pricing strategies, expect higher revenue per passenger next year from pricing and commercial development, and plan a new food and beverage area by the end of the coming year.
"So what we want to have for Jamaica is on one hand, a really important recovery, I would say, almost 90% of the total original seats that we used to have 1 year ago, will be in place for the winter." — Raul Musalem
2027 traffic and CBX margin
Q (Fernanda Recchia · BTG Pactual): Asked whether mid-single-digit year-over-year traffic growth for next year is feasible, and what CBX EBITDA margin is reasonable in the medium to long term after integration synergies.
A: Management said they do not have full visibility but expect somewhere in the middle of mid-single digits for 2027, noting some easy comps and weaker comps that affect comparisons. For CBX they see synergies beginning to appear and expect a long-term EBITDA margin close to 72% to 73%, potentially higher if commercial rollout is faster.
"What we are looking for the long term is something will be close to the 72% to 73% is what we think that it would be on the pretty first moment achievable for CBX." — Raul Musalem
Viva/Volaris merger and CapEx flexibility
Q (Guilherme Mendes · JPMorgan): Asked whether the possible Viva and Volaris merger would change the mid-single-digit traffic outlook, and whether there is flexibility to cut or delay CapEx given weaker traffic versus the MDP plan.
A: Management said the potential Viva/Volaris merger effect is already taken into account in their traffic estimates and that some reduction in seat offer has already occurred. They said they have flexibility for non-committed investments (for example commercial projects or hotels) but have no change to committed CapEx; concession rules would allow changes only with a GDP drop of at least 5%, which is not the case.
"So on the number that -- on the single digit that we are expecting, we have already taken into account some of that effect of the possible merge." — Raul Musalem
Tariff increase timing and TEA effect
Q (Jens Spiess · Morgan Stanley): Asked when the next tariff increase in Mexico will be, by how much, and expected compliance versus the maximum tariff. Also asked whether internalizing the technical assistance fee (TEA) reduces the tariff.
A: Management said the tariff increase is expected in the first week of January with a compound increase around 7% and they expect about 95% fulfillment of the tariff for the coming year, while noting peso moves affect fulfillment. They confirmed they remain comfortable with the full-year traffic guidance of minus 3% to 0%. Management added that the internalization of the TEA is already included in the maximum tariff calculation unless the authority changes the regulation basis; if not included, the fee would become an operating expense rather than part of the maximum tariff.
"With that put in place we are expecting a 95% fulfillment of the tariff for the coming year." — Raul Musalem
CBX synergies timeline
Q (Pablo Ricalde Martinez · Itau Unibanco): Asked how much synergy from CBX is expected now that it is consolidated, and when those synergies will be visible in the P&L.
A: Management said synergies have already started flowing through CBX but will occur gradually because some existing contracts must finish before consolidation. They expect to fully implement all possible synergies within the coming 24 months.
"What we are expecting is to fully implement all the possible synergies on the coming 24 months." — Raul Musalem
U.S. restrictions removal impact
Q (Ernst Mortenkotter · GBM): Asked whether the U.S. removal of restrictions for Mexico City Airport and AIFA will have any spillover effect on the company's airports—negative or positive.
A: Management said they have not seen any change or impact so far and view the news as positive for the industry but not affecting their network. They said their airports' catchment areas are strong and they do not expect an impact from the route restriction renewal.
"No, for the moment, we have not seen really any change or any impact on our net." — Raul Musalem
Retail spending and car rentals weakness
Q (Enrique Cantú Garza M. · GBM): Asked whether weaker duty-free and car rental results reflect lower spending per passenger beyond lower international traffic and currency effects.
A: Management said they are not seeing a change in the trend of spending per passenger. They said volumes matter most for duty-free and car rental—leisure airports like Vallarta and Cabos show deep effects tied to lower international volumes—and peso appreciation has affected results because many contracts are dollar-denominated.
"At the moment, we are not seeing like a change of the trend of the spending." — Raul Musalem
FAA appraisal and next master plan CapEx
Q (Alberto Valerio · UBS): Asked about expectations for the December FAA appraisal and whether Mexico can meet U.S. requests to avoid a downgrade, and asked how CapEx should look in the next MDP (maintenance vs growth and per-passenger guidance).
A: Management said the U.S. gave Mexican authorities 90 days to fix audit observations and that Mexican authorities have made legal and regulatory changes; in management's view the government is making a strong effort and he does not expect a downgrade in the coming year. On the next master plan, they said it is too early to define numbers but noted that the '25-'29 master plan expands square meters by 60% by 2029 and that the next plan will likely focus more on repositioning and equipment rather than adding capacity.
"So at least in my view, I think that Mexico or the Mexican government are deploying a really great effort to avoid any kind of potential downgrade in the coming year." — Raul Musalem