Oct 28, 2026 earnings call — EBITDA outlook cut; new fiber beverage platform
Oatly cut full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook to €16 million to €20 million due to higher US fuel and logistics costs.
Revenue $0.2B (est $0.2B) · EPS $-0.86 (est $-0.81)
Key quotes
"An approximate 250-ml serving, roughly equivalent to 1 oat latte provides 5 to 6 grams of fiber."
"This unexpected and sharp acceleration during Q3 combined with broader logistics pressure, drives the downward revision to our full year adjusted EBITDA outlook."
"Now at the record-high number of distribution points, we continue to narrow the market share gap in pursuit of category leadership."
Analyst Q&A 6
price increases and sales impact
Q (Andrew Lazar · Barclays): Analyst asked whether the company is planning larger-than-normal price increases in North America and Europe and how consumers will react. He also asked about the outlook for the oat milk category in North America after a competitor exit.
A: Management said they will raise prices as needed to protect margins, but will do so selectively with innovation-led pack and product reframing. They expect to minimize consumer pushback because they see strong velocities, market share gains, and net wins versus private labels. Management also said category momentum and household penetration gains support a positive outlook for North America.
"How much are we going to increase price? The sufficient 1 to offset cost increase, so that gives you already the way we are directionally looking into 2027." — Daniel Ordonez (COO)
freight and fuel cost spike
Q (Kaumil Gajrawala · Jefferies): Analyst asked whether recent logistics fees are catch-up costs or a new trend and what to expect for costs at the start of 2027. He wanted insight into how temporary or persistent the cost moves are.
A: Management explained there was a sudden inflation acceleration in US freight and fuel during Q3, driven by sharp diesel and freight moves. They said this hit their ability to offset costs and reduced Q3 EBITDA, and they do not expect these cost pressures to ease at the start of 2027. That is why they are planning selective price actions with innovation.
"The US diesel price increased by 23.8% just between Monday, October 26, and the last time we spoke on July 22." — Jean-Christophe Flatin (CEO)
sustainability of growth and pricing
Q (Max Gumport · BNP Paribas): Analyst asked whether current growth from the company playbook is one-time or sustainable into 2027 and whether the North America price increase for customers can be quantified for Q1.
A: Management said the growth momentum looks durable and is supported by household penetration gains and volume growth — they cited quarter 3 volume growth excluding China of 15% and year-to-date growth excluding China of almost 10%. They pointed to out-of-home tailwinds and repeatable innovations (matcha, flavor baristas, fibers) as drivers. On pricing, they would not give a precise number but said increases will be sufficient to cover cost inflation, selective and skewed toward innovation and pack reframing, and are material.
"If you look at our volume growth, year on year, for quarter 3, excluding China, we are growing 15%." — Daniel Ordonez (COO)
Q4 cost drivers and Europe pricing
Q (Thomas Palmer · JPMorgan): Analyst asked how much of Q4 COGS inflation reflects spot diesel/freight versus contract timing into 2027, and asked for a review of inflation and pricing plans in Europe.
A: Management said the revised guidance reflects both Middle East impact on E&I and a sharp further US logistic inflation (freight and fuel) that emerged after July — this is not an accumulation but a tipping point. They are projecting these US logistics pressures into early 2027. On Europe, they said the region is being reviewed similarly, the business there is stronger and resilient, they have not yet communicated price moves to customers, and they will protect margins.
"This is the tipping point of what has happened in US logistics over the summer, specifically after the month of July, And we are now also projecting that to continue for the beginning of 27 as I answered earlier." — Jean-Christophe Flatin (CEO)
EBITDA revision, pricing, productivity
Q (Dara Mohsenian · Morgan Stanley): Analyst asked whether the €7 million midpoint EBITDA downward revision is fully cost-driven, whether Q4 cost pressure will carry into 2027, how pricing will offset costs (dollar or margin basis), and whether there is renewed focus on productivity.
A: Management confirmed the guidance reduction is fully due to costs, specifically a sudden US logistic inflation spike in 2026. They said they plan for the worst of 2026 to carry into 2027 and will take selective, innovation-led pricing designed to cover the cost inflation "no more, no less." They also said they will continue to drive COGS and supply chain improvements, attack remaining inefficiencies in G&A, maximize investment impact, and use mix and channel levers to protect and grow value.
"So first of all, is the guide down fully related to cost? Answer is yes. There is nothing else that we have factored that in" — Jean-Christophe Flatin (CEO)
cash flow drivers and liquidity
Q (Samu Wilhelmsson · Nordea): Analyst asked how much Q4 cash flow improvement will come from lower CapEx, reduced inventory build, and better payables, and how much of Q3's €18.4 million free cash outflow was timing versus underlying consumption. He also asked about minimum comfortable liquidity.
A: Management said most of the Q3 negative €18.4 million free cash flow was phasing-related: CapEx timing, an inventory build for innovation, and a payable calendar switch. For Q4 they expect year-over-year and sequential improvement driven by smaller CapEx, no repeat of the €11 million-plus inventory build, and payables benefits. When asked about liquidity comfort, management answered they are 100% comfortable operating with the cash they have in the bank.
"Going into Q4, what we expect from an improvement standpoint? First, you should expect a year over year improvement, as well as a sequential improvement." — Marie-Jose David (CFO)