Sep 2, 2026 earnings call — Tariff refunds and store growth
Net sales increased 9.1% to $741 million, driven by new store openings.
Revenue $0.7B (est $0.7B) · EPS $1.42 (est $1.12) · Next-quarter revenue outlook $2.9B–$2.9B
Key quotes
"Our outlook now includes $28 million of tariff refunds, net of a 50 basis point investment in price, some of which we've already begun to deploy in the second quarter."
"We opened 15 new stores during the second quarter and 42 during the first half of the year, more than halfway to our full year target of 75."
"We believe our sales results were negatively impacted by the combination of less favorable weather, continued economic pressure on the consumer and an elevated promotional environment, which all led to a more challenging backdrop than we originally expected."
Analyst Q&A 14
consumer shopping changes
Q (Bradley Thomas · KeyBanc): Analyst asked how consumer shopping and store visits are changing, and whether factors like higher gas and competitor price moves are affecting behavior.
A: Management said the consumer remains resilient with traffic flat for the quarter, but shopping frequency was down slightly while new customer acquisition rose. Lower-income shoppers are being more selective and staying closer to home when fuel is high, and higher-income customers (around $100,000+) are trading down.
"Traffic was -- just to remind you, traffic was flat for the quarter, which was relatively consistent to the first quarter." — Eric van der Valk (CEO)
comp cadence and outlook
Q (Steven Shemesh · RBC): Analyst asked about the comp cadence through the quarter, how 3Q is trending to date, and what supports the expected back-half acceleration.
A: Management said weather hurt early in Q2 but transactions and basket improved each month, ending the quarter with a positive transaction trend and basket flat. They updated Q3 guidance to flat comps and said August results are running ahead of the plan used to build that guidance, assuming the flyer and Labor Day shifts.
"We also -- it actually ended the quarter with a positive transaction trend." — Robert Helm (CFO)
margins, tariffs, price investment
Q (Randal Konik · Jefferies): Analyst asked to unpack gross margin ex-IEEPA for Q2 and how management is balancing price investment with margin going forward.
A: Rob said the tariff refund accounted for 380 basis points and price investments related to those refunds were about 70 basis points; ex those items gross margin would have been roughly 40.3% to 40.4%. Eric said price investments were focused on Ollie's Army loyalty events, seasonally relevant products and tests like a $5 drive incentive, and they plan to invest about $15 million for the year and would invest more if needed to maintain price leadership.
"Ex those, that's about 310 basis points, our gross margin would have been above our guide for the quarter, which was 39.9%." — Robert Helm (CFO)
EPS, comps, Q4 optimism
Q (Jeremy Hamblin · Craig-Hallum Capital Group): Analyst asked to confirm the ~$0.35 Q2 EPS impact from tariffs, whether Q3/Q4 comp changes reflect price investments, and if Q3 is running ahead so far.
A: Rob confirmed the tariff-related impact is $0.35 and that 70 basis points of price investment offset some of that, while noting the top-line shortfall was the major issue and it's hard to fully separate weather, promos, and consumer. Eric added they are optimistic about Q4 because of big shopping days (Black Friday, Ollie's Army Night, holiday weeks), strong deal flow, and flexibility to invest in those events.
"The environment around tariffs and the impacts, you're right, it's $0.35." — Robert Helm (CFO)
seasonal drag and assortment tests
Q (Steven Zaccone · Citi): Analyst asked how much seasonal categories dragged on results and what category productivity and assortment changes management is making.
A: Rob quantified that lawn & garden and room air categories alone were just over 100 basis points of year-over-year drag and noted these categories drive traffic so the true attachment impact is larger. Eric said they are improving category productivity via a test-and-learn approach: reallocating inventory and space toward higher-productivity categories, expanding only when a robust sourcing pipeline exists, and rolling changes out after small-store tests.
"So just the straight math on lawn and garden and room air, the categories themselves would have been just over 100 basis points of drag year-over-year." — Robert Helm (CFO)
closeout supply and Big Lots impact
Q (Edward Kelly · Wells Fargo): Analyst asked whether weakness was due to lack of WOW/discretionary newness or closeout availability, and how Big Lots stores are comping after roll-ins.
A: Eric said closeout availability remains strong and is not the reason for softer comps; instead, a mix of promotional competition, unfavorable weather, and consumer pressure explains Q2. Rob said Big Lots stores are in their second year and moderating to a low- to mid-single-digit negative comp, helped by a soft opening approach.
"So the short answer to your question is no, closeout availability is not a reason for a softer comp in Q2." — Eric van der Valk (CEO)
why comps miss and recovery confidence
Q (Matthew Boss · JPMorgan): Analyst asked what made up the 200 basis point shortfall versus the 2% multi-year algorithm and how confident management is to reaccelerate comps next year.
A: Eric said much of the pressure came early in Q2 from weather and competitive price actions, and noted there won't be a similar tariff refund windfall next year so timing differs; he said he cannot predict the consumer a year out. Rob emphasized their model is built to comp, buyers source strong values, and historically the company has mostly returned to comps after such periods, with expectation to return to normal operations in 2027 and beyond.
"I can't speak for the state of the consumer a year from now." — Eric van der Valk (CEO)
winter seasonality risk
Q (Anthony Chukumba · Loop): Analyst asked if there are winter seasonal products that could similarly hurt results, or if the seasonal hit was mainly a summer issue.
A: Eric said this is mainly a summer phenomenon and winter weather-impact categories are less material, though October/November weather timing can matter by weeks. Rob noted Q2 was the toughest comparison this year and stacks for Q3 and Q4 are more moderated.
"We look at the meaningfulness, the materiality of the winter weather impacted categories, and it's less than it is in the summer." — Eric van der Valk (CEO)
store pipeline visibility
Q (Sarah Morin · Piper Sandler): Analyst asked how much visibility they have into the 2027 store pipeline and whether location quality or availability has changed.
A: Rob said there are no real changes to the environment and real estate availability remains very good. He stated they are ahead on the pipeline and feel very confident about next year, and they are not discussing 2028 and beyond yet.
"We continue to be ahead of the pipeline, and we feel very confident about next year." — Robert Helm (CFO)
competitive promo intensity
Q (Scot Ciccarelli · Truist): Analyst asked why competitive promotions were unusually impactful in Q2 and whether promotional intensity might accelerate in the back half.
A: Eric said Q2 was a highly unusual promotional environment with tariff-funded price moves and aggressive clearance across the market. He reiterated they plan to spend about $15 million on price investments this year (roughly $10 million in the back half) and will invest more if needed to remain the price leader.
"In the second quarter, you're right in what you're saying, Scot, we typically don't talk about the promotional environment." — Eric van der Valk (CEO)
regional weather and drive-times
Q (Simeon Gutman · Morgan Stanley): Analyst asked to isolate weather effects by region and whether rapid store growth causes cannibalization in some areas.
A: Rob said the best quantification was given earlier but added the most softness occurred in parts of the Midwest and Texas. He noted those regions had both unseasonable weather and longer drive times, and he views both dynamics as somewhat transitory.
"I can add the qualitative that we've seen the most softness in comp in parts of the Midwest and Texas." — Robert Helm (CFO)
gross margin target and flyer timing
Q (Charles Grom · Gordon Haskett): Analyst asked how to think about the gross margin jumping point to 41.3%, the net 50 bps from refunds, the flyer timing shift impact on Q2, and quarter-to-date trends.
A: Rob said the long-term gross margin target remains 40.5% and that current pricing moves are largely a finite result of tariff refunds. Eric explained the flyer was shifted from August into late July to capture back-to-school product and had an immaterial impact on Q2 but is more meaningful for Q3; the flyer just dropped this morning so stores have not yet seen benefit.
"We are still on the long-term target of 40.5%." — Robert Helm (CFO)
income-cohort performance
Q (Mary Sport · BofA): Analyst asked for more details on performance by income cohort, whether middle and lower incomes changed, and whether customers returned after the quarter's price investments.
A: Eric said Q2 was consistent with Q1: higher-income households around $100,000 are trading down, and lower-income households ($65,000 or below) shopped less frequently. He also noted they are gaining younger customers (ages 35 to 55, especially 35 to 45) as a deliberate result of product and digital marketing changes.
"On the trade-out side or not trade out, but less frequent shopping headwind that we were seeing with the lower income consumer, we saw that relatively consistent to Q1, and we're drawing that line at $65,000 in income or below." — Eric van der Valk (CEO)
fuel price margin impact
Q (Matthew Rothway · UBS): Analyst asked if fuel is still expected to be a 20 to 30 basis point margin headwind and how they are thinking about fuel for next year.
A: Rob confirmed fuel pressure remains in the 20 to 30 basis point range and that this was baked into the balance of the year and seen in Q2. He said in Q2 that headwind was more than offset by tariff refunds, and it's too early to discuss next year's assumptions; they will update on the Q3 call.
"The fuel pressure continues to be in the range of, say, 20 to 30 basis points." — Robert Helm (CFO)