Oct 28, 2026 earnings call — Permian growth and Brazos acquisition focus
ONEOK raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA midpoint to approximately $8.55 billion and net income midpoint to $4.18 billion.
Revenue $12.5B (est $10.5B) · EPS $2.13 (est $1.50)
Key quotes
"The addition of the Brazos assets substantially expands our Midland opportunity with a long runway of high quality drilling inventory and greater connectivity across the combined system."
"During the quarter, we completed our Denver area refined product pipeline expansion adding 35 thousand barrels per day of capacity Demand has been encouraging, and we are beginning to evaluate further expansion opportunities."
"Our debt-to-EBITDA target going forward is approximately 3.25x or lower and the overall lower matters."
Analyst Q&A 10
Where new capital will go
Q (Spiro Dounis · Citi): Analyst asked where new projects and capital will be allocated by region and commodity, and whether natural gas will get a higher share of CapEx and if $3 billion plus is a reasonable run rate.
A: Management said capital will be spread across their footprint, with notable opportunities in Permian gathering and processing and in the Mid-Continent. They expect NGL opportunities in the Permian and see growing power and data center demand supporting more natural gas pipe work.
Fourth-quarter outlook and fractionation needs
Q (Jeremy Tonet · JPMorgan): Analyst asked why 2026 guide implies little Q4 improvement versus Q3 despite Brazos, and whether the guide is conservative; also asked if more fractionation buildout is needed for future processing and exports.
A: Management said they have remained cautious given geopolitical uncertainty and that if conditions stay the same the guide is probably conservative and could see a Q4 tailwind. On fractionation, they watch capacity closely, have some extra Medford capacity and NBC is permitted, and they will FID additional fractionation when customers sign up.
"If everything stays like we are today, we are probably on the conservative side." — Walter S. Hulse (CFO)
Brazos acquisition performance
Q (Manav Gupta · UBS): Analyst asked whether Brazos assets are meeting expectations, where upside might be, and for an update on synergy expectations and contracting.
A: Management said they are very satisfied and volumes are above expectations now and look likely to stay above into 2027. They highlighted capital synergies from upsized pipelines that save immediate expansion capital and praised the asset quality and resiliency.
"Yes. What I would say is that we are very, very satisfied with what we have seen with." — Sheridan C. Swords
Bakken activity and G&P M&A criteria
Q (Jean Ann Salisbury · BofA): Analyst asked if producers are adding rigs in the Bakken and what is driving recent Permian G&P M&A; also what ONEOK looks for in acquisitions and whether ability to capture NGLs is required.
A: Management confirmed rigs are increasing in the Bakken and noted rigs returning from multi-basin producers, often drilling core areas that send volume to ONEOK. On M&A, they said higher commodity prices and maturity of basins bring sellers to market, and NGL capture and using their integrated system are important screening criteria.
Longer-term CapEx run rate
Q (John Mackay · Goldman Sachs): Analyst asked about potential run-rate annual growth CapEx and a range consistent with maintaining leverage targets.
A: Management said 2027 should look somewhat like 2026 with Medford wrapping up and several large processing plants finishing, and they stated: "You should think around that $33 billion ish give or take for 2027." They added they expect $2.5 to 3 billion going forward as a range.
"You should think around that $33 billion ish give or take for 2027." — Walter S. Hulse (CFO)
Next Denver pipeline expansion needs
Q (Theresa Chen · Barclays): Analyst asked how the next Denver pipeline phase could differ in scale and products, what is needed to FID, and what demand they see in that market.
A: Management said the next Denver expansion can be scaled to customer demand and is not expected to be a large capital project; they need customers to sign up for capacity to FID. They are talking with customers now, seeing increased jet fuel demand, and will watch how the new capacity performs before deciding next steps.
"So really to FID that project, we just need to get to the customers and have them ready to sign up for space." — Sheridan C. Swords
Brazos EBITDA and plant fill visibility
Q (Praneeth Satish · Wells Fargo): Analyst asked how current Brazos contribution bridges to the $5.90 2027 target, drivers beyond Cassidy plants, visibility on filling plants, and whether rig count could exceed 14 in 2027.
A: Management said Cassidy 1 will add about 330 million cubic feet a day and Cassidy 2 will follow, increasing processing over 50% from 550 million, which supports more NGLs and fractionation. They view current volumes as ahead of expectations, expect Cassidy 2 to ramp fairly quickly, and see the potential for rig counts to rise above 14 based on customer discussions.
"Cassidy 1, as I said, is coming up here at the end of this year." — Sheridan C. Swords
Crude volume dynamics and Permian outlook
Q (Brandon Bingham · Scotiabank): Analyst asked about lighter crude volumes in the quarter and how to think about forward Permian crude trajectory given forecasted gas growth.
A: Management said the reported crude number is a total system number that mixes gathering, long-haul, and Houston distribution volumes, and that Houston distribution is lowest margin and drove some reported drop. They emphasized gathering volumes in the Permian are up 7%, long-haul pipelines are predominantly full, and LNG growth could raise both crude volumes and GOR over time.
"What I would tell you is, is that the crude number we give you is a total system number." — Sheridan C. Swords
Hedging and Medford inventory
Q (Jefferies): Analyst asked how current hedging level affects long-term growth trajectory and whether inventory is building for Medford to process.
A: Management said they were 75% hedged coming into the third quarter of 26 and have accelerated hedging into 2027 given wide margins, so they are more hedged than typical at this time. They would not disclose exact inventory amounts but said they have "quite a bit of inventory right now that we have been building since the second quarter" and expect Medford to run full for the first quarter and into part of the second quarter after start-up.
"we have quite a bit of inventory right now that we have been building since the second quarter." — Sheridan C. Swords
Delaware NGL expansion and West Texas capacity
Q (Keith Stanley · Wolfe): Analyst asked if the 245 thousand barrels/day Delaware expansion is mostly contracted or creates white space in New Mexico, and for an update on remaining West Texas NGL pipeline space.
A: Management said they upsized the Delaware pipeline to access new Northern Delaware and New Mexico volumes and that there is "quite a bit of white space" to grow and capture third-party NGLs. They added they still have between "200 thousand and 300 thousand barrels a day of space" on the West Texas NGL pipeline, with Brazos and base-business growth expected to fill a substantial portion.
"So there is quite a bit of white space that we have there to be able to leverage and to be able to increase the volume on that system." — Sheridan C. Swords