Oct 28, 2026 earnings call — Horseshoe Lake generation and Oklahoma rate review
Company raised 2026 consolidated earnings guidance to $2.62-$2.68 per share, assuming normal weather for the rest of the year.
Revenue $1.2B (est $1.1B) · EPS $1.52 (est $1.36)
Key quotes
"We filed yesterday with the Oklahoma Corporation Commission seeking pre-approval to construct a new 755 MW combined cycle plant at our Horseshoe Lake site, and we will file in the coming weeks with the Arkansas Public Service Commission."
"We are launching an innovative pilot program to help customers with past due balances get back on track with payments."
"We are establishing an inaugural at-the-market equity program, which authorizes up to $750 million of common equity issuances."
Analyst Q&A 6
who will own new plants
Q (Aidan Kelly · JPMorgan): The analyst asked whether OGE expects to own the remaining 1.1 GW of capacity or buy from third parties. He also asked about the meaning of the new $750 million ATM and its role in financing the expanded plan.
A: Management said their intent is to own and operate the majority of the new plants and to use short-term bridge capacity only during construction. They said the ATM is not tied to any specific future opportunity; it is a financing tool they wanted available and they will evaluate all financing options.
"I think it is our intent to own and operate the majority of that." — Sean Trauschke (CEO·CHAIR)
why earnings lag rate base
Q (Whitney Mutalemwa · Wells Fargo): The analyst asked how to bridge 9.6% rate base CAGR versus the long-term earnings growth rate and wanted details on regulatory lag and how Oklahoma rate review and the CWIP rider would close the gap. He also asked about the lower 55%-60% payout target and whether a 35%-40% equity share is a reasonable framework for upcoming projects.
A: Management said historically they have earned close to their allowed ROE through cost control and capital allocation, and that plant accounting and load growth help bridge the gap. They expect earned ROE to be smooth over time rather than changing stepwise with rate cases. On financing, they said each project is evaluated individually and long-term credit metrics will dictate how they finance work.
"I would expect our earned ROE to continue to be smooth into the future, rather than taking step function changes and resetting with rate cases." — Chuck Walworth (CFO)
who will own the winning bids
Q (Nicholas Campanella · Barclays): The analyst asked how many of the 14 winning bids will be owned by OGE versus procured as PPAs.
A: Management said it is their intent to own these projects based on what they have demonstrated so far. They will use some bridge capacity during construction and are still finalizing negotiations.
"I think it's our intent with what we've demonstrated today to own this." — Sean Trauschke (CEO·CHAIR)
SPP 2026 planning timeline
Q (Brian Russo · Jefferies): The analyst asked how OGE is positioned for the SPP 2026 ITP and what to expect at the November board meeting. He also asked to confirm that the $160 million added to the base plan is not the Shreveport-to-Seminole line, asked about crypto-to-AI load migration effects, and asked when OGE will update its EPS CAGR guidance.
A: Management said they are tracking the 2026 ITP closely and expect it to follow a similar cadence to the 2025 ITP, noting SPP board meetings in November and February. They confirmed the $160 million comes from projects assigned in the 2025 ITP and is not the Seminole-to-Shreveport line. On crypto load, they said conversion interest to AI continues but there is nothing to announce; if load nature changes, the 1.1 GW need could increase. For EPS CAGR, they will take a fresh, holistic look next year and consider timing with other events.
"I believe the one in February will likely address which lines are direct assigned due to reliability reasons." — Chuck Walworth (CFO)
what regulators will scrutinize
Q (Rue Jia · Mizuho): The analyst asked what key factors and areas of scrutiny to expect during the 180-day review of the Horseshoe Lake pre-approval filing.
A: Management said the review will follow normal commission process steps, including a robust RFP and an independent reviewer that evaluated bids with OGE. They emphasized benefits from using brownfield sites that lower cost and highlighted their track record of bringing projects in on time and on budget. They added there will naturally be discussions about need, process, capability and economics, but they believe the facts for Horseshoe Lake 15 are strong.
"I think the last point would be our demonstrated excellence around bringing these projects in on time and on budget." — Sean Trauschke (CEO·CHAIR)
technology mix for remaining capacity
Q (Ian Rapp · Scotiabank): The analyst asked what technologies OGE expects for the remaining RFP capacity and whether the Horseshoe Lake cost per kW is repeatable for the 1.1 GW. He also asked how OGE plans to update EPS CAGR guidance over time.
A: Management said the preferred solution is primarily gas, with maybe some solar and storage, but principally gas, and that negotiations are still being finalized so they will not give details now. On EPS guidance cadence, they said they will take a holistic view next year, follow their multi-step approval process, and provide updates when there is sufficient critical mass.
"I think we've been straightforward in terms of primarily it's going to be gas." — Sean Trauschke (CEO·CHAIR)