Oct 27, 2026 earnings call — West Virginia mill ramp and record shipments
Nucor reported approximately $2.3 billion of EBITDA and earnings of $5.80 per share in Q3.
Revenue $11.2B (est $10.8B) · EPS $5.80 (est $5.84)
Key quotes
"In our steel mills, quarterly shipments exceeded 7.2 million tons, setting another shipment record for the third consecutive quarter."
"Our priority will be to operate safely and reliably while steadily increasing production toward our 50% utilization target by the end of 2027."
"I am really pleased to report on behalf of Noah and the entire sheet group that Nucor has been awarded an entire platform with General Motors for exposed automotive sheet."
Analyst Q&A 4
2027 growth, end markets, costs
Q (Nick Cash · Goldman Sachs): Asked how much more organic volume growth Nucor can generate before West Virginia contributes and which end markets support another year of growth. Follow-up asked about inflationary pressures and how costs could affect margins and the Q4 guidance.
A: Management said they expect 2027 to be stronger and that West Virginia will fully commission this year and begin full ramp in 2027. They listed end markets driving demand, including data centers (about 15% of backlog), chips, LNG, nuclear, utilities, pharma, heavy equipment, shipbuilding, military, appliance, and HVAC. Management also said conversion costs ticked up from consumables, freight, energy, services and more planned outages, and they expect a modest uptick in conversion costs quarter over quarter into Q4 with some pre-operating startup costs as West Virginia nears ramp.
"We are at the tip of the spear of the greatest economic growth in our nation, and I couldn't be more optimistic about what 2027 and beyond is going to bring." — Leon Topalian (CEO·CHAIR)
Q4 shipments, data centers, border wall
Q (Bill Peterson · JPMorgan): Asked to unpack the Q4 shipment guide given fewer shipping days and expected downtime and whether there is upside to the guide. Also asked how big the data center opportunity is and the size and duration of the border wall demand.
A: Management said Q4 has two fewer fiscal days, plus about four additional non-shipping holiday days, winter weather risk, and some planned outages at the largest mills, so shipments seasonally trend down and historically Q3 to Q4 falls about 7%. They said steel mills earnings are guided to be relatively flat quarter over quarter as stronger pricing offsets volume softness. On markets, they said Nucor can supply roughly 95% of steel for data centers and expects that opportunity to grow, and they estimated about 1,400 mi of new border wall with around 1,500 tons per mile and that shipments to the border will continue through 2027 and into 2028.
"We estimate there's about 1,400 mi of new wall to be built." — John Hollatz
Merchant bar strength and rebar impact
Q (Lawson Winder · BofA): Asked what end markets are driving merchant bar strength, how regional dynamics vary, and whether merchant bar capacity is displacing rebar capacity.
A: Management said both merchant bar and rebar are seeing tremendous growth and that merchant bar demand is exposed to hot markets, especially data centers driven by hyperscalers. They said some rebar producers can move into merchant bar, and Nucor has shifted capacity over years (for example Darlington and Kankakee moved from rebar into MBQ, SBQ and wire rod) so their footprint lets them reallocate to meet regional needs. They also noted ADC market growth from roughly 9.5 million tons towards 10.5 or possibly 11 million tons, supporting continued demand.
"What I would tell you specifically around merchant bar is it's got exposure to some of the hottest markets that we've seen right now, specifically, as Leon had just talked about, data centers." — Randy Spicer
Auto strategy, tons, quality, contracts
Q (Tristan Gresser · BNP Paribas): Asked for an update on auto shipments tonnage this year and next, whether Nucor is doing annual contracts with OEMs or needs raw material changes, and whether EAFs can match integrated producers on quality for exposed automotive panels.
A: Management said Nucor can make exposed automotive sheet and has been awarded an entire platform with General Motors for exposed automotive sheet. They said West Virginia will produce 30% automotive steels at high quality and that West Virginia will ramp (first phase is volume and proving the mill) with auto qualifications starting in 2028; Berkeley already supplies auto and just galvanized its first coil on the new line. They said they are at about 10% auto this year and that "We will do about a million tons at West Virginia as we are ramped up there," with a significant portion, probably 10%, going into auto exposed.
"Nucor has been awarded an entire platform with General Motors for exposed automotive sheet." — Leon Topalian (CEO·CHAIR)