Aug 6, 2026 earnings call — Big Signatera momentum and raised revenue guide
Natera raised its revenue range to $2.85 billion to $2.91 billion while reporting $753 million in quarterly revenue and strong MRD volume growth.
Revenue $0.8B (est $0.7B) · EPS $-0.47 (est $-0.49) · Next-quarter revenue outlook $2.9B–$2.9B
Key quotes
"In May, the FDA approved Signatera as a companion diagnostic for patients with muscle invasive bladder cancer."
"Our new enhanced panorama test closes that gap."
"Now in year 1 after surgery, Medicare will cover 6 tests for patients with kidney transplant at 12 tests for patients with heart and lung transplants."
Analyst Q&A 8
drivers of Signatera growth
Q (Puneet Souda · Leerink Partners): Analyst asked what is driving the strong Signatera growth and whether those increases are sustainable into 2027; he asked which single factor (sales, data, FDA, etc.) is the principal driver.
A: Management said they invested heavily in commercial, medical affairs, trials and user experience, which set them up to execute. They noted the FDA approval and INVIGA readout gave a halo effect, and that the 34 thousand quarter was a record but not necessarily immediately repeatable.
"We made big investments in the commercial team." — Steven Leonard Chapman (CEO)
clinical trials and SIGNAL breast
Q (Puneet Souda · Leerink Partners): Analyst asked which specific readouts to watch for 2027–2028 and whether the ER101 (SIGNAL breast) study is practice changing or guideline-enabling.
A: Management said they designed practice-changing, guideline-enabling studies across every histology that could impact the business and will fund those trials. They confirmed SIGNAL breast is the first announced study and that a suite of trials across histologies is planned.
"SIGNAL breast is the first 1 that we are announcing, but there is going to be a suite across all different histologies." — Steven Leonard Chapman (CEO)
Signatera future volume and pricing
Q (Dan Brennan · TD Cowen): Analyst asked how to think about future quarter-over-quarter volume from new sales hires and whether ASP could ramp faster than the guide given payer wins and guideline inclusions.
A: Management said new salespeople, medical affairs and trial momentum are creating strong volume momentum and that clinicians are crossing a tipping point adopting MRD, which benefits them. On pricing, management said the guide assumes stable ASP but an upside case of about $25 sequential is feasible short term, and they feel better about the long-term path to the $2,000 target.
"I feel better about the long term vision for getting the $2,000." — Michael Brophy (CFO)
competition and tissue mix
Q (David Westenberg · Piper Sandler): Analyst asked if new MRD competitors are taking share or if competitors just educate new customers, and asked about mix by tissue types and growth in covered vs uncovered indications.
A: Management said competition is expected but they have done well despite competitors because of technology, clinical studies and data advantage; the large market means competition hasn't materially impacted them. They said CRC and breast continue to grow, there are several MolDx submissions pending, and publications drive uptake across other histologies.
"I would just say, there is always going to be competition and other companies are gonna do well." — Steven Leonard Chapman (CEO)
MolDx submissions timing and ASP impact
Q (Daniel Markowitz · Evercore): Analyst asked timing for the 7 MolDx submissions and whether those coverages could add about $200 to ASP and affect EBITDA, and asked about incremental costs.
A: Management said MolDx submissions typically involve rounds of revision and that rolling coverages over the next 12 to 18 months is a reasonable expectation. They said the submitted indications could be worth roughly $150 to $200 to ASP, and that timing is hard to forecast precisely but would be transformational to ASP on the path to $2,000.
"I would estimate that is worth something like $150 to the ASP, perhaps $200." — Michael Brophy (CFO)
women's health share and SG&A efficiency
Q (Noah Kava · Jefferies): Analyst asked whether the better-than-expected women's health growth came from share gains or market growth, and what is driving the expected SG&A step down in H2 and the role of AI savings.
A: Management said women's health benefited from share gains thanks to technology improvements and product enhancements like Fetal Focus and an enhanced Panorama, and the sales team sees positive momentum. On SG&A they said Q1 had onetime noncash stock-comp accruals and litigation expenses that won't repeat and that they are deploying AI broadly to automate workflows and drive efficiencies.
"I mentioned in the prepared remarks, there were a couple of onetime expenses in Q1 that I would not forecast in the guide to have them repeat in the second half." — Michael Brophy (CFO)
Japan launch and COGS actions
Q (Kallum Titchmarsh · Morgan Stanley): Analyst asked how quickly the Japan launch could penetrate accounts in 2027 and whether reimbursement and regional studies support more frequent testing; then asked what specific COGS reduction actions and timing are planned.
A: Management said they expect Japan CRC adoption to meet or exceed U.S. rates because they start with more published data and guideline support, but reimbursement is the key unlock and they will supplement the partner with direct sales and marketing. On COGS they said new product launches will scale, enabling lab workflow efficiencies and focused R&D projects that should produce cost reductions over the next 12 to 18 months.
"we think we are poised for penetration or market adoption, I would prefer to say, that meets or exceeds the rates we saw in The United States." — Solomon Moshkevich (PRESIDENT)
early cancer detection and gross margin dynamics
Q (Subhalaxmi Nambi · Guggenheim): Analyst asked why R&D for early cancer detection increased and whether timelines are accelerating; and asked why gross margins did not rise much despite the revenue jump and when mixed dynamics flip.
A: Management said the FIND study is on schedule and they expect to finish recruiting this quarter; they are preparing the assay and plan to submit to the FDA, so near-term development expenses will persist while preparing for submission. On margins they said many new Signatera patients and growth in recently launched products raised COGS now, but they expect COGS optimization and workflow improvements to improve margins over the next 12 to 18 months.
"we are gonna be done recruiting this quarter, which is sort of what we outlined in the prepared remarks." — Steven Leonard Chapman (CEO)