Oct 29, 2026 earnings call — Record revenues and revised 2026 outlook
Record third quarter revenue of $973.2 million and revised 2026 revenue outlook of $3.7 billion to $3.8 billion.
Revenue $1.0B (est $1.0B) · EPS $0.48 (est $0.47) · Next-quarter revenue outlook $3.7B–$3.8B
Key quotes
"We remain confident that management and servicing will produce more than $2 billion of annual revenue in 2029, which implies double-digit growth."
"I think when rates moved up another 50 basis points and the 10-year went up, it gives people either an opportunity to retrade deals or to wonder whether they should go to the market."
"A key reason we have improved our cash flow metrics has been our increased focus on M&A."
Analyst Q&A 6
leadership, data center deals, free cash flow
Q (Alexander Goldfarb · Piper Sandler): The analyst asked how the board is weighing hiring an outsider versus promoting from within to preserve culture. He also asked if political pushback is reducing data center deal flow and why adjusted free cash flow fell year-over-year ex-settlement in Q3.
A: Barry said they are evaluating all options and expect to choose within 60 days. He said election timing and local NIMBYism are slowing activity but will likely be temporary, the pipeline remains robust and "nobody's walked from the table, they've just moved the table." Mike said last year's $42 million settlement was a positive impact; excluding that Q3 was down about 10% due to timing, while trailing 12-month free cash flow is up almost 36%.
"The NIMBYism that is occurring around the country, I believe will be temporary." — Barry Gosin (CEO)
2027 downside scenarios, Capital Markets risk
Q (Jade Rahmani · KBW): The analyst asked what scenario could push 2027 earnings down 10% given the business mix, and whether a much worse scenario could drive larger declines.
A: Mike said it all depends on the Capital Markets business while Management and Servicing continue to grow double-digits and Leasing should still grow but more slowly. He said a downside would be a sustained volatile interest rate environment and continued increases in the 10-year treasury, which could push Capital Markets down probably in the 20%-30% range; an upside would be early pain then improvement in the second half and a better fourth quarter.
"It's all about the Capital Markets business because as you rightly noted, the Management business, the Servicing business, that will continue to grow double-digits." — Mike Rispoli (CFO)
Capital Markets activity and reinvestment
Q (Julien Blouin · Goldman Sachs): The analyst asked what on-the-ground signs in October inform the wide range of outcomes for Capital Markets and whether a choppy Capital Markets outlook changes reinvestment plans or creates decremental margins.
A: Lou said deals are taking longer to close after rates moved up (about 50 basis points) and the 10-year rose, which gives parties chance to retrade or delay and also pushes cap rates and values. He said they will not change how they invest: they will keep investing in Management Services, drive cross-selling and grow the platform because that growth should improve margins over time.
"Look, we definitely saw deals taking longer to close." — Lou Alvarado (COO)
data center leasing share in Leasing volume
Q (Annabelle Ayer · Barclays): The analyst asked how different sub-sectors will contribute to Leasing as availability tightens and specifically how much data center leasing contributed in Q3.
A: Lou said they are doing more data center leasing deals and that part of the business seems to be ramping up. He also said demand is concentrated at Class A and landlords are upgrading B buildings to A, but they have not disclosed a specific data center number for the quarter.
"We haven't put any specific numbers around it at this point." — Lou Alvarado (COO)
market vs 2022, shift to M&A
Q (Patrick O'Shaughnessy · Raymond James): The analyst asked how the current interest rate impact compares to 2022 and why the company shifted capital allocation from hiring and lift-outs toward M&A.
A: Barry said the market now looks like this is the level rates will be and the issue is price discovery between buyers and sellers, which is different from 2023. Mike said they shifted toward M&A after building out the U.S. platform and filling gaps; M&A has focused on recurring revenue businesses, and they have acquired six companies in the past almost year, with most capital now aimed at M&A and recurring businesses.
"M&A mainly has been in the recurring revenue businesses." — Mike Rispoli (CFO)
GSE multifamily volumes and M&A timing
Q (Mitch Germain · Citizens Bank): The analyst asked if GSE activity will pick up in 4Q and how the market backdrop affects timing or pricing of M&A deals under negotiation.
A: Mike said they do not see the GSEs getting to their caps this year and volumes shifted from GSE to non-GSE debt, with the market a bit down in the fourth quarter. Barry said they are engaged in large institutional M&A and portfolio deals that can take longer in volatile times, but those deals continue to move forward and nothing has left the field.
"So I do not really see the GSEs getting to their caps this year." — Mike Rispoli (CFO)