Oct 1, 2026 earnings call — Portfolio reset and Pace operating model
Fiscal '27 revenues expected to decline in the high single-digit range.
Revenue $11.2B (est $11.3B) · EPS $0.48 (est $0.43)
Key quotes
"The purpose of Pace is clear, accelerate the Sport Offense."
"As planned, we reduced revenue from the Dunk by nearly 50% in the quarter. That resulted in roughly $200 million headwind in Sportswear."
"Let's turn to Greater China, where for the quarter, revenue declined 26%."
"Running is up double digits again with consistent share gains."
Analyst Q&A 8
Size of performance vs Sportswear/Jordan
Q (Simeon Siegel · Guggenheim): Analyst asked how large performance is versus Sportswear and Jordan in the U.S. He also asked how confident management is in the numbers and what they have learned since the new CEO joined.
A: Management said the Sport Offense is working and performance is growing. Performance grew high single digits in Q1 and North America grew 2% driven by Running, Global Football and Basketball. Management said they did a bottoms-up review and feel confident in the guidance range.
"The Sport Offense is, in fact, working and you can see it as our performance business continues to grow." — Elliott Hill (CEO)
China reset and next steps
Q (Brooke Roach · Goldman Sachs): Analyst asked how much more pressure to expect in Greater China after the 26% Q1 decline and whether more strategic actions are needed beyond the NIKE Digital reset.
A: Management said they are executing a marketplace reset in China and leading with sport to become more premium and culturally relevant. They removed some unprofitable online distribution, will focus on fewer flagships, invest in physical retail partner doors, and launch a made-for-China collection in October as a brick-and-mortar only launch. Management said the guidance assumes China gets worse from a revenue perspective for the rest of the year because of these actions.
"We continue to execute a marketplace reset in China, and you saw that reflected in the numbers this quarter." — Elliott Hill (CEO)
Q2 revenue and gross margin direction
Q (Jay Sole · UBS): Analyst asked for help on Q2 revenue expectations and gross margin, and where gross margin might land for fiscal '27.
A: Management said they will not provide specific gross margin guidance today. They noted supply chain and sourcing moves are bolstering gross margin while marketplace resets and discounts are dampening it, so there is a push and pull for the year. They also warned Q2 growth will be pressured by tough year-ago comparisons from Cyber Week in Europe and North America sell-in.
"I think one thing that's really constructive from a gross margin perspective is we're making fairly significant moves in our supply chain and sourcing programs today." — David Denton (CFO)
Mbappé departure and basketball plan
Q (Robert Drbul · BTIG): Analyst asked why NIKE let Mbappé go and asked for more detail on the basketball strategy, including signature basketball and recent roster moves.
A: Management said NIKE had a relationship with Mbappé for over 2 decades, are proud of what they achieved together, and wish him success. On basketball, they will continue to dimensionalize both men's and women's basketball, highlighted the Caitlin launch as their largest women's signature launch at 5,000 doors and noted the SHAI shoe launch and GT series as additional basketball opportunities.
"In terms of basketball, you'll see us continue to dimensionalize basketball, both men's and women's." — Elliott Hill (CEO)
Family channel, Pace program, China outlook
Q (Samuel Poser · Williams Trading): Analyst asked by region how sales may trend for the year versus Q1, what Pace aims to do for speed-to-market, and whether sub-$100 family footwear is mainly Sportswear.
A: Management said Family Footwear is a cross-sports opportunity across running, basketball, training and sportswear and sits in the $65 to $85 segment. Pace will be explained more at Investor Day, but it is meant to get resources closer to countries and athletes through supply chain changes (new capability center in India, moving from four to three geos: Americas, EMEA, Asia Pacific/Greater China) and workforce changes. Management said they will not give regional guidance but the actions in China will further dampen China compared to Q1 for the rest of the year.
"So it is a cross sportswear opportunity in that Family Footwear channel." — Elliott Hill (CEO)
What was underappreciated and why new plan will work
Q (Alexandra Straton · Morgan Stanley): Analyst asked what management underappreciated before and why they are confident the revised strategies will work.
A: Management said since returning they have strengthened the foundation, re-anchored the company in sport, and focused resources on clear priorities; the comeback is ongoing and meaningful change takes time. They plan to break Sportswear into segments, reposition Jordan to restore scarcity and dimensionalize it through sport, and continue leading in China with sport and decisive marketplace actions. They will share more detail at Investor Day.
"I would characterize that our comeback is ongoing at our size and scale, meaningful change takes time." — Elliott Hill (CEO)
Pain before gain and Pace timing
Q (Matthew Boss · JPMorgan): Analyst asked which segments may see more near-term moderation from the strategic actions and when Pace will show P&L benefits (could it be fiscal '29?).
A: Management said the three areas—Sportswear, Jordan and China—are being acted on and those deliberate actions will dampen performance now and through the balance of this year, likely bleeding into fiscal '28. They said Pace is already generating some savings visible in Q1, and maximum savings will be appreciated in '29 and '30.
"First, I think as we indicated, those 3 areas, whether they be Sportswear, Jordan and China, we're taking deliberate actions in those areas to improve performance for the long term, and that's going to dampen performance now." — David Denton (CFO)
China timing and dividend priority
Q (Michael Binetti · Evercore): Analyst asked what 'multiple seasons' means for China, whether company revenue could be positive in fiscal '28, and asked about dividend priority given near-term top-line challenges.
A: Management said China will take multiple seasons to reset and that revenue pressure may bleed into fiscal '28, and they deferred detailed modeling and longer-term guidance to Investor Day in November when they will provide a financial algorithm. On the dividend, management said it is a very significant priority and that under all scenarios they support maintaining and ultimately growing the dividend over time.
"Dividend is a very significant priority for us here at NIKE." — David Denton (CFO)