MURPHY USA INC earnings calls

new store openings

Q (Jacob Aiken-Phillips · Melius): Are the 45 openings this year still expected, and how many sites open this year versus early 2027? Will 2027 be back-loaded or more even?

A: Management said the guidance still holds and they expect to be around 45 to 50 openings this year. They have 18 stores open year to date, 55 under construction, and a firm plan to start 15 to 20 between now and the end of January. They said the pipeline is sufficient to carry out 50 stores a year and they hope to make openings more evenly spread by 2028.

MARS (automated restaurant) test

Q (Malynda K. West · Melius): Any early reads on the White Castle (MARS) program and customer behavior?

A: Management said they refer to the program internally as MARS, Murphy Automated Restaurant Solutions, and view it as a test-to-scale program. They have more than 100 units in the market and are deliberately scaling across new markets and formats to build evidence on customer demand, fit to their operating model, and store-level economics. It is too early to comment on scalable performance, though initial results are encouraging.

fuel volume trends

Q (Bonnie Herzog · Goldman Sachs): How should we think about same-store fuel volume guidance given year-to-date flat volumes and a tougher Q4 comp? What are you seeing at the pump?

A: Management said the business is advantaged as prices stay elevated because higher prices make customers more price sensitive and can drive gallons. They cited third quarter prices above $4 in 10 out of their 27 states and said they took share, noting a +6% versus Opus on a same-store basis. They also said October volumes are at 100% of prior year despite hurricane-related store outages, but it is too soon to know Q4 trends.

"For the third quarter, I believe we have prices above $4 and 10 out of our 27 states." — Malynda K. West (CEO)

RINs and operating expense

Q (Thomas Palmer · JPMorgan): How do RIN prices affect fuel profit — enduring tailwind or volatility — and will the stepped-up OpEx in Q4 mean higher OpEx next year?

A: Management said RIN price moves are largely a pass through and volatility can have temporary impacts, because RIN costs were embedded in supply cost; over a few days it normalizes. They said the 2 to 3¢ they talk about is what they expect to earn in a normalized environment from controllable sources, but in a tight supply environment they expect to earn over $0.02 to $0.03. On OpEx, they said they will focus on controlling costs, expect a modest catch-up next quarter tied to overlapping maintenance initiatives, and are too early to give specific guidance for next year.

"The volatility of RINs can have an impact that is temporary, but largely rent prices are a pass through because the prices of RINs that we are getting was embedded in the cost that we, incurred to get that supply in the first place." — Malynda K. West (CEO)

retail fuel margins and competition

Q (Edward Kelly · Wells Fargo): Why did retail margins hold up despite rising prices, and where could retail margins settle versus prior years? Any competitive differences in tough markets?

A: Management said rising prices make it hard to protect margin because you are constantly restoring price, but taking share pressures marginal retailers which supports a structural margin element. They expect continued tight supply and elevated volatility into next year, which they view as an opportunity because Murphy has optionality to acquire supply cheaper and capture benefits on both product supply and retail sides. They said pockets of competitive pressure shift over time; Colorado and Florida remain pressured, but 7 out of their top 10 markets showed same-store growth.

"So we will be able to capture benefits on both sides of the fuel business and with all these stores that we have in the pipeline, they are going to open next year." — Malynda K. West (CEO)

new store performance and formats

Q (Robert Griffin · Raymond James): How have the recently opened stores performed in year one, and are you testing new store prototypes? Also, what are you seeing in nicotine and vape categories?

A: Management said the latest build class is ramping up well, though a bit slower on fuel because many opened at year-end and faced winter storms and price increases; the prior class in 2025 returned 15% fully ramped after tax in the trough, and they expect this year's to be even better. They are exploring new formats of different sizes and reimagining raze-and-rebuild programs with heavy refresh or remodel options, but it is too soon for specifics. On nicotine, they said the category remains very promotional with customers testing and switching, they have seen new nicotine customers, and legal vape is limited now with 1 brand in stores and additional products expected in 2027.

"When we look at the bill class from the year before, what we talked about in 2025 was we were seeing those bill classes return 15% fully ramped up after tax." — Malynda K. West (CEO)

consumer trading down and volumes

Q (Pooran Sharma · Stephens): Are customers trading down grades or from higher-priced competitors to Murphy on fuel and in-store? Could you see positive same-store gallon growth in Nov/Dec if RBOB holds or drops?

A: Management said regular unleaded (RUL) was up almost 2.5% for the quarter and double that in September, and they are seeing customers trade down from premium and midgrade and also trade in from competitors because of their low price. They noted their Murphy Drive Rewards panel of over 2.2 million customers has total spend up $50 year-over-year, driven by higher fuel spend while merch spend is static or slightly up. On volumes, they said October flatness despite hurricanes is encouraging and that positive same-store gallon growth in Nov/Dec is doable but would require sustained prices above $4 and a smooth glide down rather than a choppy move; it is too soon to know.

"To give you a proof point, we have a static panel of over 2.2 million of our Murphy Drive Rewards customers" — Malynda K. West (CEO)

signs of supply normalization

Q (Dan Guglielmo · Capital 1): What indicators do you watch to know if fuel supply is returning to a normalized period?

A: Management said the spot-to-rack differential is one indicator, and leading signs include whether the war actually ends and what happens to overseas infrastructure. They also watch refinery maintenance and how the supply chain works out, and emphasized these fixes take months so lingering impacts could persist into 2027. They added Murphy's supply optionality helps if tightness remains.

"Finding out what is happening with the infrastructure overseas will be important." — Malynda K. West (CEO)

QuickChek and non-nicotine sales

Q (Bradley Thomas · KeyBanc): How did QuickChek perform and what about its EBITDA outlook? Also, are Snap benefits or other tests helping non-nicotine same-store sales?

A: Management said they do not break out QuickChek EBITDA and that the QuickChek business continues to face pressure because it is food-forward, higher cost, and geographically concentrated. They are working on sharper pricing, right assortment, labor alignment, and implementing a sales-first model, but expect near-term pressures to persist and that is reflected in full-year guidance. On non-nicotine sales, they said declines were primarily driven by lottery and beer (lottery was the largest driver and is comping to a year with a $1.8 billion Powerball); excluding lottery and beer, non-nicotine same-store margin was up 1% year-over-year, and Snap is a currency not a customer.

"Lottery was the largest driver of our same store decline, but it is also comping from a year where we had a $1.8 billion Powerball." — Malynda K. West (CEO)