Sep 30, 2026 earnings call — AI-driven demand and HBM supply constraints
Micron said more than 75% of fiscal '27 shipments are committed, reflecting stronger demand.
Revenue $54.2B (est $51.3B) · EPS $33.42 (est $31.77)
Key quotes
"And then on the supply side, there's still the same structural constraints on supply growth that we've talked about before, which is diminishing returns from technology transitions versus past technology transitions."
"And we've been working with NVIDIA for over a year on HBM4E, what's called NV HBM."
"And as I think we gave color that about 3/4 of the SCA have this -- of the SCA revenue has a defined pricing framework and about 1 quarter is open to periodic negotiations or pricing that move with market dynamics."
Analyst Q&A 8
Outlook for 2028 and margins
Q (Benjamin Reitzes · Melius): Analyst asked what changed to make the company say 2028 looks tighter than 2027 and how that affects margins. He also asked what came out of Sanjay's meeting with the administration and if it affected the upbeat guidance.
A: Management said they see stronger demand drivers into 2027 and 2028, citing server growth and agentic AI creating more CPU-driven demand. They noted they already have more than 75% of 2027 shipments committed and more SCA conversations and extensions, which gives confidence into 2028. They also said supply remains constrained by technology trade ratios, HBM growth, and long clean-room build times, so they do not have line of sight to balance timing; they added margin expansion in 2027 should come from continuing price increases and better product mix, partly offset by startup costs.
"In terms of 2027 and 2028 in our commentary, we are seeing stronger demand drivers than we've seen before." — Manish Bhatia (COO)
HBM market size and market share
Q (Melissa Weathers · Deutsche Bank): Analyst asked if the company will update its HBM TAM outlook and to separate growth from bits versus pricing. He also asked about HBM market share targets and progress on HBM4E with NVIDIA for 2027.
A: Management said they are not updating the HBM TAM outlook now but expect HBM shipments to grow faster than conventional DRAM, so HBM will take a larger share through 2028. They said Micron raised HBM pricing significantly for calendar 2027 to narrow profitability gaps. On share, they said HBM market share reached their broader DRAM share about a year ago and they expect HBM share to be around their broader DRAM share but are not targeting a fixed number. Management added they have co-designed a custom HBM4E product with NVIDIA and see substantial opportunity from that work.
"We are not updating that TAM outlook right now." — Manish Bhatia (COO)
Scope of SCAs and China exposure
Q (Atif Malik · Citi): Analyst asked whether the 26 SCAs covering 35% of sales through 2030 apply to both DRAM and NAND and requested a split. He also asked about China sales exposure and how China competitors are progressing technologically.
A: Management said the SCA agreements do cover both DRAM and NAND through 2030, but they are not breaking out a detailed split; they said DRAM volume is a little bit less than that approximately 35% and NAND bit volume is a little bit more. They confirmed China exposure has been reducing and expect China exposure to be in the single-digit range in fiscal 2027. On technology, they said Micron's leadership is at least two nodes ahead of China, that 1-gamma is the majority of their bits and 1-delta ramp is planned in the second half of next year, and that EUV expertise remains a key differentiator.
"Currently, our technology leadership is at least 2 nodes ahead of the China competition." — Scott DeBoer (PRESIDENT)
Mobile/client demand and HBM competitiveness
Q (Karl Ackerman · BNP Paribas): Analyst asked why mobile and client bit shipments fell for two quarters and whether higher memory prices cut demand there. He also asked if SCAs are coming from mobile/client customers and how competitive Micron's HBM4E base die is versus peers.
A: Management said mobile and client bit shipments declined sequentially but revenue grew due to higher pricing and favorable mix, and that premium client and flagship smartphone segments still show robust demand. They said SCAs exist across all business units including mobile and client, but they are not breaking those out. On HBM4E, they clarified the NV HBM was co-designed with NVIDIA but does not use the same in-house base die as HBM4, and they expect differentiation to show up in power, speed, and overall product quality where Micron sees strength.
"On HBM4E, we have co-designed with NVIDIA, but not in-house base die like we use on HBM4." — Scott DeBoer (PRESIDENT)
New SCAs and pricing structure
Q (James Schneider · Goldman Sachs): Analyst asked what customers are asking for in the 10 new SCAs, whether pricing constructs changed, and if ceilings/floors reset to higher market conditions. He also asked if initial hyperscale customers were included.
A: Management said the SCA framework is similar to before, but negotiations reflect current and higher market pricing; about three quarters of SCA revenue has a defined pricing framework while about one quarter is open to periodic negotiation. They said they signed a range of agreements from small to large customers in the recent 10, and they are not disclosing specific customer identities or breaking those out.
"And so the direction of travel has been for higher pricing." — Manish Bhatia (COO)
CapEx mix and clean-room limits
Q (Christopher Caso · Wolfe): Analyst asked about the split between construction CapEx and tool purchases and whether construction CapEx is increasing faster. He also asked how much CPUs (agentic workloads) contribute to supply-demand imbalance.
A: Management said the principal industry constraint is clean-room space, so most of the CapEx increase is construction to accelerate clean-room availability in '28 and beyond; that construction spend does not immediately produce bits and fabs are equipped based on demand and SCAs. On CPUs, they said agentic workloads running on CPUs are a major new demand driver with high attach rates for LP, DDR, and SSD, contributing meaningfully to server unit growth and making DRAM the principal constraint.
"Most of that construction increases to accelerate clean room space availability in '28 and beyond." — Mark Murphy (CFO)
Why supply growth slows despite CapEx
Q (Joseph Moore · Morgan Stanley): Analyst asked why DRAM supply growth would decelerate next year despite higher CapEx and what factors cause that. He also asked whether pent-up demand would quickly absorb any additional supply.
A: Management said supply growth is constrained because HBM is growing faster than conventional DRAM and newer HBM generations increase trade ratios, plus diminishing returns from node transitions and, most importantly, clean-room space constraints. They noted first wafer output from one facility mid-calendar '27 but meaningful supply growth takes additional quarters. They agreed there is latent demand and that if more memory becomes available it would be put to use in higher-content AI workloads.
"So I think that's really the -- those are all the reasons why we see that DRAM is reducing supply industry shipments next year." — Manish Bhatia (COO)
NAND growth and DRAM fungibility
Q (Mehdi Hosseini · Susquehanna): Analyst asked whether Micron can grow NAND bit shipments in 2027–2028 in line with the industry and whether DRAM wafers are fungible to better manage costs.
A: Management said they are not commenting that far out on DRAM or NAND but expect NAND conditions to remain tight even as the industry grows mid-20% in calendar 2027 and 2028. They explained some of Micron's lower supply growth this year came from using Singapore clean room space for advanced R&D and preparing HBM ramp, and they expect ramp to G9 and a new clean room online in H2 2028. On fungibility, Scott and Manish said there is more differentiation today across front-end processes for HBM, LP, and DDR, though running multiple products on the same lines helps adjust mix but not necessarily cost.
"Mehdi, we're not commenting out that far, frankly, on either DRAM or NAND." — Manish Bhatia (COO)