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VAIL RESORTS INC earnings calls

MTN · every analyst question and management's answer

Sep 28, 2026 earnings call — Strategy and recovery after a bad weather year

Company guides resort reported EBITDA $805 million to $865 million and net income $158 million to $233 million for fiscal 2027.

Revenue $0.3B (est $0.3B) · EPS $-5.34 (est $-5.35)

Key quotes

"Turning to Epic Experience. This is our long-term strategy we announced this summer, which provides a framework for our next phase of growth."

— Robert Katz (CEO) · Epic Experience strategy

"we remain on track to exceed our original $100 million target of annual savings and announced an additional $30 million of identified technology-related efficiencies that we expect to realize by fiscal 2028."

— Robert Katz (CEO) · Resource efficiency savings

"Given the current pass sale trends, we are not expecting an overall improvement during the rest of the selling season and expect to recapture a meaningful portion of lower pass visitation through increased lift ticket visitation."

— Angela Korch (CFO) · Pass and lift-ticket mix

Analyst Q&A 11

pass sales and ancillary expectations

Q (Stephen Grambling · Morgan Stanley): Clarify guidance assumptions for revenue given lower pass sales and explain expected ancillary contributions like gear, ski school, rentals, food; also asked about plans for agentic AI.

A: Management said pass declines may reflect less-committed skiers delaying commitment and that movement between passes and lift tickets may not reduce overall season demand. They expect capture growth across all ancillary lines including ski school, rental and food. On AI, they view it as part of a tech transformation to add virtual concierge support while keeping human touch points.

"on ancillary, yes, that is, we do expect to see capture growth across all of our ancillary lines of business, including in ski school and rental and in food" — Robert Katz (CEO)

operating expense drivers and biggest financial opportunities

Q (Shaun Kelley · BofA): Detail operating expense assumptions: normal inflation, one-offs, and ability to adjust if revenue disappoints; and which initiatives will be most financially impactful in 12–24 months?

A: They expect about 4% blended expense inflation between labor and other expenses, plus $20 million return of performance-plan costs, $10 million more marketing, $3 million for GTLC contract, and $3 million one-time transformation costs, partly offset by $25 million of transformation savings. Management said the top financial opportunity longer term is gear, while nearer term the key levers are marketing, pricing strategies, and converting guests through personalized engagement.

"And so we are expecting about 4% kind of blended all in between labor and expense." — Angela Korch (CFO)

what drives EBITDA range

Q (Arpine Kocharyan · UBS): What scenarios make the lower vs higher end of the EBITDA range? Is it mainly weather vs better season? Also asked how much mix helps reach resort revenue growth given passes down.

A: They said the range reflects weather, the economy, and variability from pass-to-lift-ticket movement; a normal or strong season could restore visitation to 2025 levels, while transitions add risk. On mix, they reiterated passes down now don't necessarily mean lower season demand because prior pass growth often came from converting lift-ticket buyers to passes, and current mix is hard to predict.

"I think a portion of it could be weather." — Robert Katz (CEO)

Gen Z pass uptake and Deer Valley impact

Q (Aidan Youngs · Stifel): Any data on Gen Z uptake from a 20% discount—are new pass holders from lift tickets, competitors, or new skiers? Also ask about Deer Valley expansion impact and Park City investments.

A: They said it's hard to tell now and they'll update after the pass season; the Gen Z program shows positive results but is in a market that's down. On Deer Valley, they couldn't quantify its impact but called it a strong addition and highlighted heavy investments in Park City that raise the whole market's appeal.

"We've definitely seen yes, some positive results from that program." — Robert Katz (CEO)

effective ticket price and ancillary growth

Q (Benjamin Chaiken · Mizuho): Clarify ETP/ticket price assumptions given low pass utilization last year and whether ancillary is assumed to grow faster than lift tickets.

A: They said this year benefited from lower pass utilization which affects year-over-year ETP; think about pass revenue growth plus recapture into lift tickets to understand the ETP effect. They expect ancillary revenue to grow and to outpace lift ticket revenue given pass initiatives and pricing strategies.

"When you looked at the increase for ETP, effective ticket price, this year, you saw the benefit, right, from just lower utilization on the passes." — Angela Korch (CFO)

long-term algorithm and core CapEx outlook

Q (Elizabeth Dove · Goldman Sachs): Does guidance change the long-term algorithm from March and what's the plan for core CapEx next year versus this year?

A: They said the guide reflects lingering effects from last year's weather and pass sales miss, but it does not change the long-term algorithm from Investor Day; some recovery may take more than one year. On CapEx, they're not changing long-term core capital guidance but will adjust for inflation, and next year's core spending is expected to be very much in line with current year levels.

"It does not change the algorithm that we see for the business as we go forward." — Robert Katz (CEO)

converting pass holders to lift tickets and pricing offers

Q (Xian Siew Hew Sam · BNP Paribas): How do you think about converting lower-frequency pass holders to lift tickets and the price levels they might face; any insights on 30-day advance and Epic Friend ticket effects?

A: They said the 30-day in-advance product was designed to bridge pass and lift-ticket options and gives guests flexibility to avoid early commitment. They also highlighted Epic Friend Ticket (50% off with a pass holder) and a continuum of offers so guests can choose based on timing and price, while the company will use continuous personalized communication to convert guests.

"So our view was that, yes, it's a little bit more for sure, but it also allows people not to have to pay or commit during the pass selling season." — Robert Katz (CEO)

consumer sensitivity and balance sheet comfort

Q (Anthony Bonadio · Wells Fargo): How do rising rates and inflation affect consumer demand for lift tickets and how comfortable are you with leverage, dividend, and buyback at current multiples?

A: They said the company faces the same macro pressures as other travel firms but believes the pass remains an affordable option across customer segments, helping positioning. On capital allocation, they expect leverage to fall to 3.5x under this guidance and feel the balance sheet supports M&A, capital plans, and returning capital to shareholders, including covering the dividend at the low end of guidance.

"We expect that our leverage will go down to 3.5x at this year's guidance." — Angela Korch (CFO)

future ticket pricing strategies and real estate guide

Q (Anthony Berni · Jefferies): Will you unveil more lift-ticket pricing strategies like SALT or under-30 tickets, and explain the negative real estate EBITDA guidance?

A: They said they will not preview future pricing moves but are opportunistic and disciplined; expect to optimize offerings like Epic Friend ticket and advanced lift tickets and capture those within guidance. Real estate EBITDA is lower because the guide assumes no new closings next year, whereas the prior year included several scheduled closings.

"Yes. I would say we're not -- yes, we're not going to share kind of any indication on future pricing decisions, but all of that is captured within our guidance." — Robert Katz (CEO)

international and Australia exposure

Q (Chris Woronka · Deutsche Bank): Could international rebounds (visitors buying passes) help pass sales? And is Australia becoming non-core due to variable seasons and costs?

A: They said international inbound travel is depressed and would not likely drive overall pass program recovery, though Whistler relies more on that market. On Australia, they do not see it as non-core despite variability; they view Southern Hemisphere passes as strategic for funneling guests into U.S./Canada and believe historical returns make those resorts accretive investments.

"I don't think so at all because obviously, yes, they are -- they have ups and downs in their year just like a lot of other ski markets do." — Robert Katz (CEO)

ancillary confidence given weaker destination guests

Q (Brandt Montour · Barclays): How can you be confident ancillary will grow when destination-frequency guests were weakest and locals/regionals may buy last-minute and use fewer ancillaries? Also asked about wider vacation costs outside your control.

A: They said destination guests have historically been lift-ticket buyers and many could return as the season recovers; they expect to grow capture and price with improved experience, product, and pricing. Management believes the pass weakness is weather-related, not economic, and that regional and local skiers provide stability while they target guests across the continuum to drive ancillary capture.

"I mean what I would say is I think the destination frequency guest is -- I think what we've been trying to share is that, yes, they're buying less passes right now." — Robert Katz (CEO)

AI-generated notes on the earnings call transcript. Quotes are taken from the transcript. This is not a FolioObs investment view.

VAIL RESORTS INC (MTN) · Earnings calendar

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