Nov 2, 2026 earnings call — Tinder turnaround momentum and Hinge growth outlook
Tinder's global DAU returned to year-over-year growth in September for the first time in three and a half years.
Revenue $0.9B (est $0.9B) · EPS $0.73 (est $0.71)
Key quotes
"In September, global daily active users returned to year-over-year growth for the first time in three and a half years, and we have cut year-over-year declines in monthly active users nearly in half over the last year."
"Revenue growth was about 19% in Q3. We expect it to be about the same, maybe a little bit better in Q4, so think of 19%-19.5%."
"Taking into account both the Apple changes and the Google partnership agreement expiration, and making no assumptions on future fee changes, we expect IAP fees to result in a one-point headwind to Adjusted EBITDA margin in 2027."
Analyst Q&A 13
Why DAU turned positive
Q (Robert Coolbrith · Evercore): Analyst asked how DAU turned positive in September, and whether that came from better retention, stacking retention across cohorts, or improving consideration/reconsideration.
A: Management said this was a major milestone: DAU turned positive year-over-year in September for the first time in three and a half years, and U.S. DAU also turned positive at the end of October. They said MAU improved from -10% to -5.5% over recent quarters, and the improvement is broad-based by gender, age, and geography; female MAU improved faster than male MAU and under-30 users improved more than over-30. They said DAU is growing faster than MAU because many product improvements made the current experience better, but more work is needed to drive reconsideration, which is why they are focused on the Better with Friends roadmap (Double Date, Events, Groups).
"Turning DAU positive in September year-over-year for the first time in three and a half years felt great." — Spencer Rascoff (CEO)
Timing to close DAU–MAU gap; 2027 outlook
Q (Shweta Khajuria · Wolfe): Analyst asked how long it will take for DAU growth to pull MAU back to growth, and then asked for color on 2027 expectations across Tinder, Hinge, E&E and the levers for revenue and EBITDA.
A: Management said MAU improved about one point from Q2 to Q3 (MAU down 6% versus -7% prior) and payers improved from -5% to -4%, and they expect MAU, payers, and FX neutral direct revenue to improve in Q4. They would not give full-year 2027 guidance yet but said Tinder is on a good trajectory, Hinge needs to sustain ~19%-19.5% growth to reach $1 billion, E&E should see modest improvement but remain negative next year, and the main profitability trade-off will be the right level of marketing spend (they will use the PRISM framework and give more details in February).
"We expect payers to get better in Q4, we expect MAU to get better in Q4, and we expect that FX neutral direct revenue to get better as well." — Steve Bailey (CFO)
Why Tinder givebacks were lower
Q (Jason Helfstein · Oppenheimer): Analyst asked why Tinder needed fewer user givebacks than planned and why those givebacks were not necessary this year.
A: Management said improvements to the user experience increased MAU retention, which mitigated revenue loss when they launched changes like recommendation algorithm updates that prioritized user outcomes. They explained that they originally budgeted $60 million for user givebacks in 2026 but ended up using $25 million, which is about 2 points of revenue benefit versus their February expectations, plus another point from improving trends.
"What we're now saying is that we only ended up using $25 million." — Steve Bailey (CFO)
Where marketing dollars went
Q (Bryan Smilek · JPMorgan): Analyst asked how marketing spend was allocated by channel to regain consideration, and asked about LTV curves for Gen Z creator/social and event partners.
A: Management said in 2026 they shifted spend toward down-funnel user acquisition and put more marketing behind specific features rather than broad brand messaging. They gave the example that marketing Events on Instagram produces much better cost per registration or reactivation than generic brand messaging, and they now have a cross-brand analytics framework to allocate marketing for 2027 planning.
"We shifted a lot of our spend towards down-funnel user acquisition instead of up-funnel brand building." — Spencer Rascoff (CEO)
Main levers to fix MAU decline
Q (Nathan Feather · Morgan Stanley): Analyst asked the one or two leading factors to return MAU to flat growth and how to drive reconsideration of the brand.
A: Management said the biggest lever is convincing people who are not on Tinder or who used it years ago to try it again, and the Better with Friends roadmap (Double Date, Events, Groups) is how they plan to do that. They noted Double Date has delivered 30 million matches, Groups shows women are twice as likely to like a group profile versus a single male profile, 15% of users 18–22 in Norway are in a group, and Events has improved brand-health measures, all helping reconsideration toward MAU recovery.
"The biggest lever is convincing people who are not already on Tinder or who maybe used Tinder two, four, five, 10 years ago to give it another shot." — Spencer Rascoff (CEO)
Monetization plans for Tinder
Q (James Heaney · Jefferies): Analyst asked what revenue options Tinder will explore in 2027 and how they can improve monetization without hurting engagement.
A: Management said they focused on user experience first and now are turning attention to revenue, approaching monetization from a near blank slate and reviewing everything. They said it's early to disclose specifics but promised they will apply the same focus and innovation to monetization in 2027 as they did to user experience in 2026, and they are optimistic about monetization innovation next year.
"We're now turning our attention towards revenue, and we're really looking at everything." — Spencer Rascoff (CEO)
Marketing pushed into Q4
Q (Youssef Squali · Truist): Analyst asked how much marketing was pushed from Q3 into Q4, why, and whether growth would have been faster if spend occurred in Q3.
A: Management said they pushed about $8 million of marketing spend from Q3 to Q4 and came in roughly $12 million better than expected overall; the timing was due to campaign timing and discipline—if a campaign isn't returning what they expect, they won't spend just to hit a budget. They added that underspending allows redeploying dollars in a later quarter at higher ROI and they expect MAU, payers, and direct revenue to improve in Q4 with the marketing spend.
"In terms of quantity, we pushed about $8 million or so in marketing spend from Q3 to Q4." — Steve Bailey (CFO)
Recs improvements and Missed Connections
Q (Benjamin Black · Deutsche Bank): Analyst asked how much better matching can get with real-time personalization and what was learned from Missed Connections testing.
A: Management said Queue Unification and recommendation improvements were critical and they have rolled Queue Unification out to more user types; they intend to launch Real-time Recs by the end of the year but called it unproven and early in its potential. On Missed Connections (testing in Canada), they said weekly location-based drops of people you've crossed paths with are resonating with users—especially Gen Z—creating serendipity and nostalgia, but more product work is needed before broader rollout.
"Real-time Recs, we have said we intend to launch by the end of the year." — Spencer Rascoff (CEO)
E&E brand focus and Hinge lower price test
Q (Alec Brondolo · Wells Fargo): Analyst asked how they chose focus brands in E&E and whether narrowing focus adds headwinds, and asked for details on Hinge's new lower-priced subscription and paid conversion opportunity.
A: Management said they prioritized E&E brands by the white space each brand targets and by size, so brands like Upward, BLK, and HER target clear white space while Match is prioritized for older segments; non-priority brands still get shared improvements from central teams (profile creation, photo selection, chat, recommendations). For Hinge, they are testing a lower-priced tier aimed at women and price-sensitive users to increase payer conversion; it includes additional filters and custom location boundaries, tests show conversion improved for both genders with a larger uplift for women, and they expect broader rollout in Q4.
"So, in deciding which brands to prioritize with E&E, we looked at the white space that the different brands are going after and also the size, and in order to prioritize." — Spencer Rascoff (CEO)
Payer conversion runway and Hinge growth
Q (Jamesmichael Sherman-Lewis · Citi): Analyst asked how much additional payer conversion runway exists at Tinder and how to balance conversion versus audience growth into 2027, plus Hinge's MAU growth opportunity in mature markets.
A: Management said payer penetration at Tinder is improving and is still relatively low, leaving plenty of room to drive incremental payer conversion while focusing on adding value to both free and paid experiences rather than only short-term revenue. For Hinge, they said U.S. penetration is highest on the coasts and ages 20–30, and there's room in smaller cities and ages 30–40; they estimate at least another one million monthly active users in the U.S. from expanding into those segments and are already applying that playbook to other core markets.
"In terms of how much more room to go, while payer penetration at Tinder is higher than Hinge, which I just mentioned, it is still relatively low." — Steve Bailey (CFO)
Managing AI token costs and shared tech efficiency
Q (Eric Sheridan · Goldman Sachs): Analyst asked how they manage rising AI token costs as AI moves from test to scale, and what efficiency gains from shared tech platforms to expect into 2027.
A: Management said AI costs rose from an initial ~$5 million budget to a little more than $10 million after broadening employee access to tools, and they offset this by slowing headcount growth and using governance like an AI gateway, caps ($1,000/month for engineers, $250 for non-engineers), and manager visibility to control spend. They also gave examples of shared tech driving efficiencies: centralized trust and safety tooling, Events powering other brands, an AI prototyping tool, and a homegrown CRM for messages that they may extend across brands.
"We started probably with a budget this year of about $5 million for AI cost, but we had pretty low usage." — Steve Bailey (CFO)
Hinge growth in new markets and RPP trend
Q (John Blackledge · TD Cowen): Analyst asked if Hinge's user growth and payer conversion in newer markets follow mature-market curves, and whether the Q3 RPP decline will continue after the lower-priced tier rollout.
A: Management said global MAU growth for Hinge was about 12%, with core MAU improving while growth in Europe slowed as markets scale, and they are relaunching in India, entering LATAM, and preparing for Japan in 2027 (not expecting much 2027 revenue there but see it as a longer-term growth driver). On RPP, they said Q3 saw accelerating payers but slight RPP decline driven by price-optimization models and the new lower-priced tier; the propensity-to-subscribe pricing model is increasing payer conversion and they expect the effect to continue into Q4 and generate net positive revenue.
"What you are seeing is we saw an acceleration in payers, and we saw RPP down a little bit year-over-year in Q3." — Steve Bailey (CFO)
Hinge international play and Japan
Q (Andrew Marok · Raymond James): Analyst asked what common threads they see across disparate geographies for Hinge, and what gives them confidence Hinge can find space in Japan.
A: Management said the common thread is Hinge's slow, steady approach of customizing product and marketing for each geography, which has worked in markets like Brazil, Mexico, and India where they added features like screenshot banning and wait lists. For Japan, they said they did original research and see white space between matrimony apps and casual apps, so they plan to customize Hinge's product and marketing to win there without cannibalizing Pairs or Tinder.
"What we're seeing as the common thread in the different markets is that Hinge's slow and steady approach of customizing the product, customizing the marketing for the individual geography is working." — Spencer Rascoff (CEO)