Aug 4, 2026 earnings call — Strong refining results and MPLX growth
Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $8.5 billion and refining capture of 112%.
Revenue $52.3B (est $40.9B) · EPS $17.73 (est $14.27)
Key quotes
"That resulted in a 3% increase in Jet yield year-over-year."
"This morning, MPLX announced it is increasing its 2026 capital growth spending outlook by $500 million to $2.9 billion."
"During the second quarter, we returned $2.8 billion of capital inclusive of $2.5 billion of share repurchases, reflecting strong cash generation and disciplined execution of our capital allocation priorities."
Analyst Q&A 10
why capture rate was strong
Q (Neil Mehta · Goldman Sachs): He asked how the company achieved the strong 112% capture rate and what the formula for success should be going forward. He also asked about cash levels, return of capital, and timing of working capital unwind.
A: Management said capture comes from optimizing in the prompt, crude sourcing and optimization, favorable derivatives receipts, incremental jet production, and reliable operations; the 112% was driven by strict inventory discipline in a backward-dated market. They said capital allocation priorities are unchanged, they target roughly $1 billion cash balance, and Maria said working capital had a large $3.8 billion benefit and is sensitive: every $10 move in crude is about a $550 million change.
"This quarter, in particular, the 112 was driven by strict inventory discipline in a backward-dated market." — Maryann Mannen (CEO)
global product inventory and West Coast
Q (Manav Gupta · UBS): He asked how the 9 million barrels offline has affected global product inventories and how long rebalancing could take, and whether mid-cycle product margins could stay higher for years. He also asked if product can be moved into tight West Coast markets.
A: Management said global product balances are extremely tight with some of the lowest gasoline and diesel inventories they have seen, and Russian refinery attacks removed more than 2.8 million bbl offline which will take time to repair. They said consumer demand is resilient, U.S. jet hit an all-time high in June and distillate exports were record, and that the Jones Act waiver helps Gulf-to-West movements but is not enough to replace lost Asian imports; they said their LAR and Pacific Northwest assets are well-positioned to meet West Coast demand.
"Global product balances remain extremely tight and some of the lowest levels of inventories in gasoline and diesel that we've seen." — Maryann Mannen (CEO)
RVP waiver and cash policy
Q (Doug Leggate · Wolfe): He asked if the RVP waiver and butane blending helped the second-quarter capture and whether that benefit should continue in third quarter. He also asked about hesitancy to use surplus cash for buybacks given margin durability.
A: Management said the RVP waiver benefit was part of 2Q but was a really small element of the contributors to the strong capture result. They reiterated capital allocation priorities are unchanged, the return of capital via buybacks remains the priority, timing matters, and they have an obligation to repay SPR barrels embedded in working capital.
"That benefit, certainly it would be a part of 2Q, but it is just a really small element of all of the contributors that we were trying to articulate in the second quarter." — Maryann Mannen (CEO)
refining growth and renewable diesel
Q (Sam Margolin · Wells Fargo): He asked where refining growth opportunities are, given changing crude sources and product shortages, and followed up on the case for more renewable diesel capacity.
A: Management said they already can run over 100 different crudes across the system with Garyville the most flexible Gulf Coast refinery, so they do not see a need to invest to run more crude types. They said refining capital will focus on reliability and yield optimization to add value, and renewable diesel capital will be for efficiency only with no change in allocation.
"We've already got the ability to run over 100 different types of crudes across our system, with Garyville being the most flexible refinery on the Gulf Coast." — Julian Stoll
renewable fuels drivers and Gulf Coast detail
Q (Joe Laetsch · Morgan Stanley): He asked what drove the renewable fuels segment's strong quarter and whether those results are repeatable. He also asked for more detail on Gulf Coast performance and export arbs.
A: Management said renewable diesel margins look favorable because the fundamental RIN balance is short, they ran the renewable assets at 95% utilization, and they will optimize Martinez and Dickinson and lean into pretreatment. On the Gulf Coast they cited record diesel exports, attractive arbs and demand in Latin America and Europe, leaning into jet markets, reliability, Garyville's incremental jet capacity, and flexible crude sourcing as key drivers.
"Renewable diesel margin continues to look favorable given the fundamental RIN balance." — Rick Hessling
heavy vs Venezuelan crude and gas costs
Q (Theresa Chen · Barclays): She asked how heavy Canadian crudes economically compare to Venezuelan crude across the Gulf Coast system and what to watch for 2026 and beyond. She also asked how incremental Permian gas to the Gulf Coast will affect refinery profitability and costs.
A: Management said heavy Canadian barrels generally win economically over Venezuelan barrels in their system and that they have the largest appetite for Canadian barrels in the U.S.; they gave WCS and forward WTI numbers and noted SPR and other supply can pressure differentials. They said a natural gas bottleneck is moving closer to the water and they are adding optionality and flexibility to reduce natural gas costs into their Gulf Coast refining system.
"I would tell you eight out of 10x, heavy wins when we look at the economic advantage of a heavy Canadian barrel versus Venezuela." — Rick Hessling
renewable diesel obligations beyond 2027
Q (Conor Fitzpatrick · BofA): He asked whether renewable diesel margins are sustainable beyond 2027 and how supply could evolve market-wide.
A: Management said the Set 3 rule due by mid-next year will set obligations for 2028 and 2029 and that obligations must be realistic given U.S. production and several headwinds to imports, including tariffs, exclusion from the production tax credit, Set 2 registration and compliance requirements, and possible RIN value reduction. They said the market is short today, that current pulls on the bank are not sustainable, and that the Set 3 rule should lower obligations to reflect fundamentals.
"We feel that the Set 3 rule has got to lower the obligations to be more realistic of more supply-demand fundamentals." — John Quaid
full-year capture and buyback capacity
Q (John Royall · Piper Sandler): He asked whether this year's full-year capture could exceed last year's 105% given the recent strength and if that changes long-term targets. He also asked whether $3 billion-$3.5 billion is a reasonable upper bound for quarterly buybacks.
A: Management said some first-half capture drivers are sustainable (operations, planning, commercial) while others were market-driven and outside their control, and they noted Q3 has averaged 95% historically so it can be muted. They said their focus remains delivering incremental EBITDA per barrel; on buybacks they said no change in capital allocation, return of capital remains the priority, and the growth of MPLX giving them $2.8 billion and growing should allow them to lead in buybacks.
"Our focus is really to ensure that through all markets, we are delivering incremental profitability, incremental EBITDA per barrel." — Maryann Mannen (CEO)
RIN spike and company actions
Q (Matthew Blair · TPH): He asked whether a big RIN price spike is likely as the year progresses and whether the company is buying RINs ahead to cover obligations.
A: Management said markets typically respond to price signals and that they believe the market is efficient and will act accordingly; they declined to speculate on regulator actions. They did not state that they are pre-buying RINs or outline specific hedging steps in this answer.
"We believe the market is efficient, and ultimately, they will take the signals and act accordingly." — Rick Hessling
integration and technology across regions
Q (Phillip Jungwirth · BMO): He asked if one region is better positioned than others and how the company is rolling shared learnings and technology across regions.
A: Management said they prioritize all three regions equally and are using technology and analytics across the company, including drone inspections, digital twins, wireless sensors for predictive reliability, and sophisticated refining and logistics models. They said they now optimize regional refineries and are moving to cross-regional optimization across the entire system, converting insights into executable actions.
"We optimize regional refineries, and now we're optimizing cross-regional across the entire system." — Julian Stoll