Oct 29, 2026 earnings call — on! pouch growth and raised EPS guidance
Altria raised full-year adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $5.66 to $5.74.
Revenue $5.4B (est $5.3B) · EPS $1.52 (est $1.51)
Key quotes
"In the third quarter, on! reported shipment volume increased 13.3% to 47.8 million cans."
"Cowboy Cut provides a premium Marlboro option at the right price to retain value-sensitive smokers within that franchise."
"And today, we announced that our Board authorized a $1 billion expansion of our existing share repurchase program, which now expires on December 31, 2027."
Analyst Q&A 6
industry volumes and Cowboy Cut positioning
Q (Mirza Faham Baig · UBS): They asked why cigarette volumes stayed resilient and whether smoker pressure is easing. They also asked how Marlboro Cowboy Cut fits in the Marlboro lineup and its long-term role and pricing.
A: Management said resilience comes from nicotine being more resilient and from movement into lower-cost illicit e-vapor products, plus increased enforcement affecting supply. They said Cowboy Cut is a premium Marlboro option priced to keep value-sensitive smokers in the franchise, widely distributed in about 100,000 stores and supported by Marlboro equity.
"Cowboy Cut provides a premium Marlboro option at the right price to retain value-sensitive smokers within that franchise." — Salvatore Mancuso (CEO)
EPS guidance and duty drawback timing
Q (Matthew Smith · Stifel): They asked where the strength came from to raise full-year EPS guidance. They also asked whether the Q3 duty drawback level is a reasonable run rate for Q4.
A: Management said strong performance through the first nine months let them raise and narrow guidance to 4.5% to 6%, and that the range includes investments in smoke-free products like on! PLUS and 12-milligram offerings. They said their expectations for duty drawback phasing in the second half have not changed and the imbalance between quarters remains as previously described.
"But this new guidance range of the 4.5% to 6%, we feel really confident that we can deliver throughout the rest of the year." — Heather Newman (CFO)
duty drawback ramp and NJOY ACE return
Q (Bonnie Herzog · Goldman Sachs): They asked about the ability to ramp cigarette exports and duty drawback next year given the PMI contract manufacturing agreement. They also asked when NJOY ACE will return and how vapor will be managed.
A: Heather said the PMI contract manufacturing agreement starts in 2027 and they established CMA arrangements in the first half; they expect a balanced step-up across Q3 and Q4 and avoided giving 2027 expectations. Salvatore said they resolved the patent issues and plan to return to the e-vapor market, but they have not announced timing and will pursue a disciplined and profitable approach while supporting enforcement and faster FDA authorization.
"We have not announced when we're going back in the market, but we do plan on being back in the e-vapor market." — Salvatore Mancuso (CEO)
flavored vapes and on! pouch growth
Q (Andrei Andon-Ionita · Jefferies): They asked whether legal flavored vapes will take share from cigarettes or illicit vapes. They also asked expectations for on! volume growth next quarter and next year and what will drive it.
A: Management said flavored e-vapor can attract smokers to lower-risk products, but the illicit category still dominates and enforcement is needed to protect harm-reduction. On pouches, they said recent volume decline reflects consumers moving from MST to pouches; they highlighted NICOSILK as a differentiator, the recent 12-milligram launch, and planned flavor rollouts including Watermelon Mint in November.
"We believe that the NICOSILK technology for the pouch is a differentiator." — Salvatore Mancuso (CEO)
scanner data vs reported pouch volumes and cigarette profit drivers
Q (Pallav Mittal · Barclays): They asked why scanner data shows declines while reported volumes rose, and whether there is inventory from the 12 mg rollout. They also asked why cigarette EBIT is flat excluding duty drawback and whether duty drawback could grow materially next year.
A: Management said there is some pipeline inventory from the 12-milligram and flavor introductions, and scanner reads (pouches vs cans) create some noise, but nothing significant. On cigarette profits, they said you must look across pricing, cost management and duty drawback, and they feel good about Marlboro and overall smokeable performance. They declined to provide a next-year duty-drawback range and reiterated the PMI contract manufacturing impact is not yet reflected.
"I wouldn't say significant, but I would say there's obviously some pipeline inventory as we launched the 12-milligram across mint, wintergreen and tobacco." — Salvatore Mancuso (CEO)
pouch category outlook and elasticity drivers
Q (Eric Serotta · Morgan Stanley): They asked how nicotine pouch category volume and revenue will evolve short-term and mid/long-term amid heavy innovation and price moves. They also asked why reported cigarette price-elasticity impact ticked down and why macro/cross-category effects moderated.
A: Management said pouch growth has been driven by MST consumers moving to pouches and some cigarette users seeking reduced-harm options; as the category grows, percentage growth rates may moderate, but they expect long-term strong margins and continued investment in on! and on! PLUS. On elasticity, they said the coefficient is unchanged at negative 0.35 and the quarter change reflects year-over-year price differences; cross-category moderation is lowering that line while macro pressures persist.
"We believe over the long term, tobacco-like margins are very achievable in this category." — Salvatore Mancuso (CEO)