Oct 29, 2026 earnings call — Undercover Snacks deal and EPS outlook
Mondelez reiterated forecast for strong EPS growth in '27 and announced a majority stake in Undercover Snacks.
Revenue $10.0B (est $10.0B) · EPS $0.78 (est $0.71)
Key quotes
"I think despite increased volatility in the macros as well as headwinds from an inflation standpoint, I think we remain confident that we are going to drive strong EPS growth in '27."
"The brand is called Undercover because the founder wanted to give her kids who were diagnosed with celiac disease, healthy ingredients in disguise."
"Year-to-date, I think we've added about 130,000 outlets in India. Brazil, we're now over 1 million stores. And in China, we still have a very long runway."
Analyst Q&A 6
North America and Europe pricing
Q (Peter Galbo · BofA): Asked how North America pricing will evolve into 2027 after recent share gains. Also asked about Europe pricing and the exit rate into Q4 and next year.
A: Management said North America is gaining share from better promotions, innovation and higher A&C, and they did not cut prices. They are cautious on future price moves and will be selective, using PPA and focusing on volume/mix and productivity. In Europe they made selective price increases last year, view those as the right decisions, and expect the outcomes to be sustainable.
"We didn't reduce prices, but we have become, I think, more precise as to what we do when." — Luca Zaramella (COO)
Acquisition and cocoa outlook
Q (Robert Dickerson · U.S. Bancorp): Asked why they bought Undercover Snacks and how it fits and scales. Also asked for their view on current cocoa prices and near-term outlook.
A: They said Undercover is a crispy quinoa snack with better-for-you, gluten-free ingredients and good taste, sold in airlines and major retailers. They will keep the founder as CEO, integrate the brand into North America ventures, and expect the deal to close by early '27 subject to approvals. On cocoa, they said the market is much stronger than in '24, expect a record surplus this year and a smaller deficit in '26-'27 that can be absorbed by existing supply and inventories.
"I think if you look at the '25, '26 cycle, we expect to be ending this year with a surplus of almost 0.5 million tons, so 500,000 tons, which is a record level of surplus" — Amit Banati (CFO)
Latin America volumes and Q4 outlook
Q (Christopher Carey · Wells Fargo): Asked why Latin America volumes were pressured and whether recent positive volume is durable. Also asked for color on Q4 profit range within full-year guidance.
A: They said Argentina is the main drag because they manage it for cash and priced diligently; excluding Argentina the region looked okay with Brazil and other markets gaining share. They highlighted strong non-chocolate volume mix (gum and candy) and said Brazil chocolate is turning the corner. On Q4 they are maintaining their EPS outlook, expect continued volume mix growth, will reinvest Q3 upside, and expect strong gross profit and OI dollar growth in the quarter.
"When you step back and you look at the business all across, excluding Argentina, you actually see that in Latin America, the volume mix for the non-chocolate business has been at about 4% to 5% in the last quarter." — Luca Zaramella (COO)
Gross profit drivers and distribution upside
Q (Max Andrew Gumport · BNP): Asked what drove the stronger-than-expected gross profit in the quarter. Also asked how much more distribution upside remains in emerging markets.
A: They said gross profit benefited from strong volume growth, operating leverage, supply chain and procurement productivity, and timing benefits from lower cocoa costs. On distribution, they said the retail universe is larger than their current distribution, the universe itself is growing, and they still see scope to add outlets, upgrade stores and increase listed items—with around 25% numeric distribution still to gain in key markets like China, India and Brazil.
"I think what you have to consider at this point in time is that the runway that we have in places like China, India, Brazil, it is most likely we still have 25% numeric distribution to go." — Luca Zaramella (COO)
Cost outlook and M&A appetite
Q (Thomas Palmer · JPMorgan): Asked about overseas cost pressures now and whether the favorable cost environment for 2027 still holds. Also asked how big of an acquisition they would pursue.
A: They said they remain confident about strong EPS growth in '27 but are seeing inflation in commodities like dairy, oil and packaging; they plan to accelerate productivity programs and have levers to drive earnings. On M&A they reiterated a bolt-on strategy and said bolt-ons could be around $0.5 billion up to close to $1 billion in sales, preferring targeted deals over very large acquisitions.
"There are bolt-ons, which could be in the $0.5 billion, sometimes even close to $1 billion in sales." — Dirk Van de Put (CEO·CHAIR)
Sales growth outlook and Europe pricing
Q (Alexia Howard · Bernstein): Asked whether sales can return to algorithm next year and what the main puts and takes are. Also asked if negative price growth in Europe (driven by chocolate) will continue and when lapping occurs.
A: They said it's premature to outline 2027 guidance now but they are focused on driving volume and will reinvest in Q4 to support volume-led growth into '27, expecting strength in emerging markets, stabilization in Europe and continued momentum in North America. On Europe pricing they said yes, negative price growth will continue for a couple of quarters and urged to consider cumulative pricing across the two years when assessing future pricing.
"Again, I think you need to bear in mind that pricing last year ramped up throughout the quarter." — Luca Zaramella (COO)