Oct 21, 2026 earnings call — AI infrastructure and recurring analytics growth
Moody's topped $2 billion in revenue for the third straight quarter and reaffirmed full-year guidance.
Revenue $2.0B (est $2.1B) · EPS $4.14 (est $4.25)
Key quotes
"particularly in sectors tied to AI infrastructure and power investment, where issuance increased approximately fourfold from the third quarter of last year."
"Adoption is accelerating. It is early days, but in just the last three months, users have more than quadrupled, and usage is up more than tenfold."
"We ended the quarter with $3.7 billion in annualized recurring revenue, ARR, and that is up approximately 8% year-over-year, and we are on track to meet our full-year guidance."
Analyst Q&A 9
AI adoption and revenue
Q (George Tong · Goldman Sachs): The analyst asked whether the recent big rise in AI users and usage is creating new revenue and ARR, not just improving retention and engagement. He also asked what must happen for AI to drive more of Moody's Analytics growth.
A: Management said AI is embedded across the product suite and shows up in adoption, engagement, new sales, renewals and win-loss. They said customers consume AI three ways: embedded in apps, agents/workflows, and direct MCP/API access. They noted MCP customers paying more than doubled, usage grew over 10x in three months, and pipeline has expanded since quarter end.
"It's increasingly embedded across everything that we do, and it shows up in customer adoption, product engagement, new sales, win-loss rates, renewals, everything, right?" — Rob Fauber
Q4 bond issuance outlook
Q (Andrew Steinerman · JPMorgan): The analyst asked for the main positives and negatives behind Moody's assumed fourth-quarter issuance level, including AI- and M&A-related financing and the effect of a shorter issuance season.
A: Management said markets are open with a healthy pipeline into November but treasuries have widened and some issuers are timing deals. They said Moody's assumes a mid-teens year-over-year decline in issuance for Q4, expects most hyperscaler financing is done for the year, and noted a pipeline of AI and data infrastructure financings.
"Just to remind you, we're assuming a mid-teens year-over-year decline in issuance in the fourth quarter." — Rob Fauber
KYC fines and business impact
Q (Jason Haas · Wells Fargo): The analyst asked whether recent big fines for KYC/AML lapses at large banks could be a positive driver for Moody's KYC business going forward.
A: Management said those events are a driver for the whole market and a reminder of the importance of getting KYC right. They said Moody's is investing in KYC agents, that the effort is early, and they are working to migrate customers from Orbis Catalyst to the Maxsight platform to enable more monetization and agentic opportunities.
"I think it is a driver for the entire market." — Rob Fauber
Speeding growth in banking products
Q (Scott Wurtzel · Wolfe): The analyst asked how Moody's might accelerate growth in the more mature parts of its banking business, via go-to-market changes or new products.
A: Management said they have cleaned up the banking portfolio and are focusing on lending plus risk and finance. They described a decision-intelligence layer that connects Moody's apps to give unique insights and said they are rethinking bundling, pricing and packaging. They also said they will co-build agentic lending workflows with lighthouse customers using FDEs.
"More and more, what we're hearing from companies is they want to be able to connect all of this." — Rob Fauber
Hyperscaler and AI issuance size
Q (Craig Huber · Huber Research Partners): The analyst asked for Moody's view of total hyperscaler rated debt issuance in 2026 and what that might be in 2027, and the share of global issuance.
A: Management said AI-related issuance year to date has driven a little over half of issuance growth and that AI infrastructure is the strongest growth driver in ratings. They said from a revenue standpoint AI-related issuance is closer to 40%, noted rating analysts estimate about $800 billion of CapEx for 2026 and expect $1 trillion or more next year, and expect continued hyperscaler issuance growth.
"So from an issuance growth perspective, year to date, AI-related issuance has accounted for a little over half of total issuance growth." — Rob Fauber
Role in private credit
Q (Alex Kramm · UBS): The analyst asked about Moody's appetite to do more in private credit, what they see in the market, and how their role has evolved recently.
A: Management said they strengthened methodologies, analytics and engagement to support private credit growth and that the same analysts rate public and private credit. They highlighted partnerships (MSCI, Allvue) to calibrate models and said they want to drive usage of Moody's tools in private markets and be agnostic between public and private credit.
"I think we've done a good job of that, and you've seen that come into the rating results." — Rob Fauber
Casualty insurance opportunity
Q (David Motemaden · Evercore): The analyst asked if third-party capital interest in casualty insurance is affecting results and how Moody's views the opportunity going forward.
A: Management said casualty is still a small part of their insurance business but is gaining traction. They said U.S. casualty is something like 60% of gross written premiums and is immature on third-party data and analytics, which is why Moody's invested in casualty analytics with AI to surface emerging mass-tort signals and is partnering with insurers and Lloyd's.
"Like a lot of this stuff where we're innovating, the casualty is still a pretty small part of the business, but we're seeing very good traction and interest." — Rob Fauber
Selling data: MCPs vs direct
Q (Owen Lau · Clear Street): The analyst asked whether Moody's should sell data via AI/MCPs into customer platforms or sell it directly through Moody's channels, and how to protect data and avoid cannibalizing Moody's platform.
A: Management said customers move at different speeds: big banks want Moody's content delivered into their AI surfaces via MCPs or agents. They said Moody's can expose content to thousands more users and consider consumption-based pricing, but will also move up the value stack and co-build agentic solutions with customers rather than only providing data pipes.
"The good thing about that, Owen, is that, if you think about over the years, Moody's has done a great job of monetizing the expert user community, right?" — Rob Fauber
Pricing for AI-enabled renewals
Q (Peter Christiansen · Citi): The analyst asked what Moody's sees on pricing in the big renewal quarter and whether customers will pay more for AI, workflows, and integration.
A: Management said many institutions have budgets for AI and data but must see proven outcomes and ROI, so customers often want proof-of-value before committing. They described a POC where Moody's credit MCP materially reduced errors, cited 95% first-pass accuracy in the Risk Data Refinery, and said institutions will pay when the ROI is clear.
"A lot of these institutions have very significant investment agendas around their AI platforms and very critically, the data that goes into the platforms." — Rob Fauber