MARRIOTT INTL INC NEW earnings calls

MAR · every analyst question and management's answer

Nov 2, 2026 earnings call — Raised 2026 RevPAR guidance; strong growth, conversions

Marriott raised full-year 2026 global RevPAR guidance to 4.5%-5%.

Revenue $7.0B (est $6.9B) · EPS $3.02 (est $2.84)

Key quotes

"Growth continued to be broad-based across customer segments and chain scales."
— Tony Capuano (CEO) · Revenue per available room

"Our global pipeline grew over 6% year-over-year to a new record of over 634,000 rooms at the end of September."
— Tony Capuano (CEO) · Development and pipeline

"Our relationships with our hotel owners are of paramount importance to us. We remain deeply committed to working alongside them to continue to leverage our industry-leading scale, to enhance property-level economics, and deliver sustainable long-term value."
— Tony Capuano (CEO) · Owner relations and economics

Analyst Q&A 17

owner relations and ITR incentive

Q (Shaun Kelley · BofA): The analyst asked for an update on owner feedback since last quarter, especially about the ITR incentive and any planned changes.

A: Management said they remain engaged with a broad set of owners and view owners as foundational to the business. They said discussions have been transparent, collaborative, and constructive, and that they are focused on hotel-level economics and driving top line while managing expenses.

"We are laser-focused on hotel-level economics, both on driving top line and looking at every expense line in the P&L." — Tony Capuano (CEO)

luxury vs select service gap

Q (Richard Clarke · Bernstein): The analyst asked if the wider RevPAR gap between luxury and select service will continue or narrow into Q4 and 2027.

A: Management said they are pleased with performance across all chain scales. They noted luxury continued to outperform while select service was up 6% and improved quarter-over-quarter.

"You are correct that luxury continued to outperform, but select service being up 6%, and that is an improvement quarter-over-quarter." — Jen Mason (CFO)

AI impact on distribution

Q (Stephen Grambling): The analyst wanted color on agentic AI: initial impacts to distribution, mix, commissions, and near- and long-term effects on owners and the business.

A: Management said AI is early in travel and is largely reshaping travel discovery today. They are engaging with AI platforms to provide accurate content and said monetization today leans toward advertising; booking monetization is still uncertain.

"Right now, our view is that AI is largely reshaping travel discovery." — Tony Capuano (CEO)

RevPAR mix: rate vs occupancy

Q (Patrick Scholes · Truist): The analyst asked how next year's RevPAR growth will split between room rate and occupancy and about incentive management fee drivers for Q4.

A: Management said it is early in budgeting so they could not provide full detail on composition yet. They did say they see upside for incentive management fees in U.S., Canada, and APEC, while the Middle East should continue to be impacted in Q4.

"On your question on IMFs for Q4, we certainly see upside in U.S., Canada, and APEC and other places." — Jen Mason (CFO)

key money and capital intensity

Q (Trey Bowers · Wells Fargo): The analyst asked whether key money in the $500 million-$600 million range is the new normal and if it will grow.

A: Management said the company maintains rigorous evaluation for all MI Capital investments. They also said deals where Marriott used key money have historically shown material value premiums per room, giving 2025 and year-to-date statistics.

"If you look at all the deals we did in calendar 2025, the deals where Marriott participated with key money had an average value premium per room of about 65%." — Tony Capuano (CEO)

construction starts and pipeline

Q (Michael Bellisario · Baird): The analyst asked for an update on construction starts trend in the U.S. and ex-U.S. and early views on rooms growth for next year.

A: Management said U.S. and Canada new build construction starts were up about 7% last year and up 20% year over year through the first three quarters this year. They said global construction starts are down about 24% year to date, and conversion activity remains an important source of openings.

"Through the first three quarters this year, new build construction starts are up 20% year over year." — Tony Capuano (CEO)

Middle East outlook and pipeline

Q (David Katz · Jefferies): The analyst asked whether the Middle East can recover, if the pipeline can finish, and whether RevPAR can at least get back to flat given ongoing low-intensity conditions.

A: Management said the Middle East represents a small share of rooms and fees globally and they assume ongoing travel disruption with gradual improvement in 2027. They said they are not seeing pipeline fallout and owners continue to move projects forward and sign new deals.

"We're currently assuming ongoing travel disruption with some gradual improvement during the course of 2027." — Tony Capuano (CEO)

2027 RevPAR by segment

Q (Dan Politzer · JPMorgan): The analyst asked to break down the early 2027 RevPAR view across business, leisure, and group.

A: Management said they are early in the budget process and not ready to give detailed segment-level guidance. They described the 3.5%-4.5% preview as a sneak peek based on recent quarterly business reviews around the world.

"We are giving you a sneak peek into what we're hearing, having just gone through our quarterly business reviews around the world." — Tony Capuano (CEO)

conversions vs new builds

Q (Lizzie Dove · Goldman Sachs): The analyst asked whether conversions will be a bigger or smaller part of net rooms growth next year given mixed signals about new builds.

A: Management said they have been deliberate in building conversion-friendly brands and aligned teams to drive conversions. They expect conversion volume to remain a top growth priority and do not expect new builds to reduce conversion activity.

"My expectation is, while the percentages may move around a little bit, even when we get to an environment where we see a meaningful uptick in new build, I do not anticipate that it will be at the expense of conversion volume." — Tony Capuano (CEO)

China business and outlook

Q (Brandt Montour · Barclays): The analyst asked for a state of China: mix of business vs leisure, near-to-medium term operating outlook, and effect on capital formation and net rooms growth.

A: Management said Greater China leisure is the largest segment, followed by business and group. They said consumer sentiment is softening and the environment is difficult for growth, with group a smaller mix in the quarter compared to leisure and business transient.

"Broadly speaking, in Greater China, our leisure segment is the largest segment, followed by business and then group." — Jen Mason (CFO)

Europe RevPAR drivers

Q (Duane Pfennigwerth · Evercore): The analyst asked what is driving the acceleration in European RevPAR: seasonal leisure, U.S. demand, or other factors.

A: Management said leisure is the main driver, especially in Western and Southern Europe. They said beyond that, contributions vary by sub-market and segment.

"Well, without question, leisure is sort of the bright shining star, particularly when you look at Western and Southern Europe." — Tony Capuano (CEO)

conversions vs openings next year

Q (Robin Farley · UBS): The analyst asked if conversions will be higher next year given a slight downtick in rooms under construction.

A: Management said they cannot give exact percentages yet because future mix depends on construction starts, but they will continue to push for brand-accretive conversion volume. They expect strong conversion volume to remain a top growth priority into 2027 and beyond.

"We would expect strong conversion volume, again, both single asset and portfolio, to continue to be a top growth priority and a big driver of NUG into 2027 and beyond." — Tony Capuano (CEO)

corporate travel (BT) performance

Q (Conor Cunningham · Melius): The analyst asked why BT grew only modestly and how corporate travel performed across large managed and small-to-medium clients during the quarter.

A: Management said they see strength across all segments: group, BT, and leisure. They reported BT revenue was up about 4% in the quarter, driven mainly by rate growth, and expect those trends to continue.

"BT revenue was up about 4% in the quarter, predominantly driven by rate growth." — Jen Mason (CFO)

PMS rollout and impact

Q (Ari Klein · BMO): The analyst asked for an update on the PMS rollout and observed impacts so far.

A: Management said the rollout has been successful and they have moved over 3,000 hotels to the new technology ecosystem as of yesterday. They said deployment waves will continue through 2027 and they have largely finished many U.S. select service hotels while starting to cut over full service hotels.

"As of yesterday, we had successfully moved more than 3,000 of our hotels to the new technology ecosystem." — Tony Capuano (CEO)

fee growth and royalty rate

Q (Alex Brignall · Rothschild): The analyst asked why underlying fee growth lags unit and RevPAR growth and what to expect for credit card and residential fees in 2027.

A: Management said there is no compression in franchise and base fee royalties and they are pleased with year-over-year franchise fee growth. They said it is too early to give guidance on 2027 fee growth.

"In terms of fee growth overall from your question on royalties, franchise royalty, and base fee royalty, there is no compression there." — Jen Mason (CFO)

booking window trends

Q (Chad Beynon · Macquarie): The analyst asked about booking window trends for leisure and business and whether elevated airline prices changed it.

A: Management said the global average booking window in Q3 was about 21 days, with BT at 17 days and leisure about 24 days, and that these were relatively flat year-over-year. They said there was no dramatic change.

"On the booking window, in Q3, the global average booking window was about 21 days." — Tony Capuano (CEO)

incentive management fee exposure

Q (Smedes Rose · Citi): The analyst asked what percent of the North American portfolio earns incentive management fees and whether mid-point RevPAR next year would keep properties "in the money."

A: Management said it is too early to give a read on incentive management fees for next year as budgets are not complete. They said the percentage of hotels earning incentive fees varies by region, and the weighted global average is roughly over 60%-some.

"But kind of weighted average around the world, it is about over 60%-some." — Jen Mason (CFO)

Aug 3, 2026 earnings call — Raised RevPAR guidance and new card agreements

Marriott raised full-year global RevPAR guidance to 3% to 3.5%.

Revenue $7.1B (est $7.2B) · EPS $3.19 (est $3.08)

Key quotes

"Looking ahead, as Jen will discuss further, with strong broad-based demand generally expected to continue, we are raising our full year 2026 guidance range to 3% to 3.5% global RevPAR growth."
— Anthony Capuano (CEO) · RevPAR and regional demand

"We are launching the ITR incentive this week to our owners. It's up to 50 basis points of gross room revenue, fee reimbursement for achieving defined ITR thresholds."
— Jennifer Mason (CFO) · Owner incentives and ITR

"The expected incremental impact to our 2026 co-branded credit card fees solely from a partial year of the new terms of our cards under the Chase and Amex agreements in the U.S. is approximately $30 million."
— Jennifer Mason (CFO) · New U.S. co-branded card deals

Analyst Q&A 14

Owner reinvestment and ITR incentive

Q (Shaun Kelley · BofA): Analyst asked what Marriott aims to do for owners with the new ITR program and how the timing will flow into results beyond 2026.

A: Management said the ITR incentive is one step to improve owner economics. They are launching it this week and it will start to be baked into results in the back half of the year. They also noted multiple items affect owned, leased and other revenue like renovations and a hotel sale.

"It's up to 50 basis points of gross room revenue, fee reimbursement for achieving defined ITR thresholds." — Jennifer Mason (CFO)

Co-brand card fee ramp

Q (Stephen Grambling · Morgan Stanley): Analyst asked how the co-brand card fees will ramp over time and whether new deals change the agreement scope or geographies.

A: Management said the $30 million number is solely from the new credit card terms for the balance of this year. They said the full benefit builds over time as new and refreshed card products are introduced and that by full year 2028 the impact could be between $100 million and $125 million at a 26% royalty rate. They also said most benefits go into the loyalty program.

"By full year 2028, the impact on Marriott's co-brand card fees from these new deals could be somewhere between $100 million and $125 million at our current royalty rate of 26%." — Anthony Capuano (CEO)

Fees and Q4 RevPAR outlook

Q (Raymond Bowers · Wells Fargo): Analyst asked if the higher fee revenue guidance is conservative or if there are offsets to fees for the rest of the year.

A: Management said the new credit card deal is about $30 million but there are FX headwinds from the decline in the yen. They expect Q4 RevPAR to be a bit lower than Q3 due to the World Cup timing and a larger Middle East impact in Q4, where about 35% of the Middle East full year revenue happens in Q4.

"We do expect that Q4 RevPAR is a bit lower than Q3." — Jennifer Mason (CFO)

Net rooms growth and developer appetite

Q (Michael Bellisario · Baird): Analyst asked about trends into 2027 for net rooms and recent developer appetite to sign deals and start construction.

A: Management said the guide's lower end is driven by project delays in the Middle East due to the conflict. They prefer looking at multiyear CAGR and noted a 30-month CAGR of 5.2%, and they said owner sentiment is strong with more signings in the first half of 2026 than any first half ever.

"I think that is a great testament to the confidence that the owner and franchisee community has investing in our portfolio of brands long term." — Anthony Capuano (CEO)

Investment spend and tech program progress

Q (Daniel Politzer · JPMorgan): Analyst asked about trends in key money and what stage the digital tech transformation (DTT) is in and future investment spending.

A: Management said key money is more used in competitive situations and that nearly 40% of the pipeline rooms are in the top 2 quality tiers; they also said they are using less key money per signed deal than in the past. They said DTT is making excellent progress but is still early: over 2,000 select service U.S. and Canada hotels have transitioned, tech spend should decline over time but will continue, and owned, leased and other investment remains significant due to renovations.

"We have over 2,000 select service in U.S. Canada hotels that have transitioned." — Jennifer Mason (CFO)

Group vs leisure and 2027 RevPAR view

Q (Elizabeth Dove · Goldman Sachs): Analyst asked how group, business and leisure will trend for the rest of 2026 and any early thoughts on 2027 RevPAR.

A: Management said for 2026 all segments should be up with leisure leading, group second, then business transient; full year group pace is up about 5%. They said it's early on 2027 budgeting but they could see continued strong global RevPAR growth next year, while noting the World Cup creates a comp and EMEA may benefit as Middle East recovers.

"We could see continued strong global RevPAR growth next year." — Anthony Capuano (CEO)

Response to owners' letter

Q (Charles Scholes · Truist): Analyst asked for a specific official public response to the owner letter.

A: Management said they will not give an official response because that is a matter between the company and owners. They reiterated that owner success is closely tied to Marriott's success, that discussions are collaborative and ongoing, and that they have had meetings and are encouraged by progress.

"The letter that we received, I think, is reflective of the passion and commitment that, that group of owners has to the relationship and to -- and is an acknowledgment of that linkage between our mutual success." — Anthony Capuano (CEO)

Platform fees vs Marriott P&L impact

Q (David Katz · Jefferies): Analyst asked how much changes are passed through to owners versus taken onto Marriott's P&L.

A: Management said discussions with owners are collaborative and ongoing. They said their guidance already reflects their expectations of the impact of those discussions on Marriott's P&L going forward.

"In terms of potential impact to the Marriott P&L, our guidance is reflective of our expectations of the impact of those discussions on Marriott's P&L going forward." — Anthony Capuano (CEO)

Conversions vs new builds and owner interest

Q (Brandt Montour · Barclays): Analyst asked whether improving fundamentals in conversion-targeted segments could reduce net rooms growth if owners need the brands less.

A: Management said owners are showing the opposite: affiliation with Marriott's revenue engines and loyalty platform is strengthening owner interest. They pointed to strong performance from platforms like Autograph and Tribute and record first-half signings as evidence of continued developer interest.

"As they look at the impact of affiliation with our revenue engines and our loyalty platform and the impact that has on performance, we're actually seeing a strengthening in the interest." — Anthony Capuano (CEO)

Card fee timing and Middle East RevPAR hit

Q (Duane Pfennigwerth · Evercore): Analyst asked to confirm the 2026 timing for the credit card impact and to size the Middle East impact to EBITDA and RevPAR.

A: Management confirmed the $30 million of incremental fees represents 2 quarters of 2026 and said they see headwinds from Japanese cards due to the yen decline. They said they now expect the impact to full year global RevPAR to be about 100 basis points and that hotels affected are predominantly managed, with impacts reflected in the updated guidance.

"So on your first question, yes, the $30 million of incremental fees is for 2 quarters of 2026." — Jennifer Mason (CFO)

Future share of conversions in growth

Q (Robin Farley · UBS): Analyst asked whether conversions will be a smaller or larger share of net unit growth going forward.

A: Management said historically conversions moved opposite new build, but today they have dedicated resources globally and a strong stack of brands suited to conversions. They do not believe conversions will decline when new build ramps and expect conversion volume to continue for the foreseeable future.

"I don't think that will be at the expense of conversions." — Anthony Capuano (CEO)

Asia and China pipeline growth

Q (Conor Cunningham · Melius): Analyst asked if Middle East construction issues are affecting Asia and what they see in Asia and China specifically.

A: Management said they are not really seeing lingering effects in Asia; early quarter ripple in APEC was managed by pivoting to intra-region travel and May/June were strong. They said they continue to see very strong MOU approvals and signings across APEC and China and expect the Series launch in China to generate something on the order of 100 incremental hotels starting openings later this year.

"From a deal perspective, we continue to see very strong both MOU approvals and signings across both APEC and China." — Anthony Capuano (CEO)

Luxury segment strength sustainability

Q (Aryeh Klein · BMO): Analyst asked if luxury benefited more from the World Cup and if luxury can sustainably outperform.

A: Management said World Cup upside was seen across chain scales but luxury momentum is strong and encouraging. They highlighted almost double-digit RevPAR growth in U.S. and Canada for their luxury business as proof of sustained strength.

"To get to almost double-digit RevPAR growth in our luxury business in U.S. and Canada is a great illustration of that continued strength." — Anthony Capuano (CEO)

Group bookings and 2027 composition

Q (Bennett Rose · Citi): Analyst asked about group segment pacing for 2026 and what group looks like for 2027, including U.S. composition.

A: Management said 2026 is a good group year with pace up 5% and U.S. pace about 6%. For 2027 they see it as flattish with rate up and room nights down slightly, and noted that about 40% to 55% of the following year's group is usually on the books by midyear, leaving runway for 2027.

"As we look out, it looks flattish, rate up and room nights down slightly." — Jennifer Mason (CFO)

AI-generated notes on the earnings call transcript. Quotes are taken from the transcript. This is not a FolioObs investment view.

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