Oct 29, 2026 earnings call — Strong demand, operational gains, and CCS progress
Adjusted EBITDA rose 55% year-over-year, to $62 million in third quarter 2026.
Revenue $0.2B (est $0.2B) · EPS $0.22 (est $0.14)
Key quotes
"Supply constraints stemming from continued geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Black Sea region continue to challenge global nitrogen and energy markets."
"This translated into significant year-over-year growth in adjusted EBITDA and EPS and reflected the progress we are making in overall reliability, efficiency, and product mix optimization."
"When fully operational, we expect to generate between $25 million and $30 million of annual earnings, net of any operating costs associated with CCS operations over the 12-year 45Q credit period."
Analyst Q&A 4
supply disruption gains and USDA grant
Q (Lucas Beaumont · UBS): The analyst asked how much extra profit came from supply disruptions in the AN market and whether that benefit will roll off next year. He also asked for an update on the USDA grant application for El Dorado.
A: Management said directionally the 10% estimate is correct and expects that to continue until the supply issues are resolved towards the end of first half next year. They said they are about 70% or so sold for the fourth quarter and significantly less sold for the first quarter, so there is upside. They also said they already have one USDA grant roughly around $30 million for the El Dorado ammonia expansion, and they were not initially chosen for the phase two award but remain in conversations.
"To be clear, we already have one grant from the old USDA grant program, and so that's roughly around $30 million, and that's for the expansion of ammonia production and debottlenecking of the ammonia plant at El Dorado." — Mark Behrman (CEO·CHAIR)
production capacity, cost sustainability, cash use
Q (Andrew Wong · RBC): He asked where nameplate and realistic production levels are today and what the upper limit could be. He also asked how sustainable recent controllable cost improvements are and how the company plans to use its large cash balance.
A: Management gave plant-level daily rates: El Dorado ran between 1,350 and 1,370 after the turnaround and can run higher in cooler weather; Pryor runs between 675 and 700; Cherokee runs at 520-530. On an annual basis, they said if there were no turnarounds and plants ran full out, they are probably 875,000 tons-900,000 tons a year. They said about half of the recent cost improvement is sustainable after removing inventory timing and precious metal recoveries, and they plan to keep some cash as "dry powder" while also using the board-authorized stock buyback to repurchase shares where efficient.
"If we had no turnarounds in a year and we were running full out on our ammonia plants, we are probably 875,000 tons-900,000 tons a year." — Mark Behrman (CEO·CHAIR)
nitric acid demand, cost bridge, fall season
Q (Rob McGuire · Granite): He asked whether MDI tariffs and duties are strengthening U.S. nitric acid demand and for details on the variable and fixed cost items in the cost bridge. He also asked how the fall application season is progressing.
A: Management said the market has found a good equilibrium after the duties and local production has increased to sustainable levels, and noted BASF's Geismar commissioning will take nitric acid from the market. They said the variable costs are primarily sulfur (part of a small sulfuric acid business) and those costs are passed along in selling prices; precious metal recoveries and operational efficiency contributed to the $8 million bridge item and about 50% of that should be sustainable going forward. On fall application, they said they are optimistic it will be robust but are watching weather and harvest delays.
"That gets passed along though in the selling prices, so net net, the higher variable costs there are going to be passed along through higher pricing." — Cheryl Maguire (CFO)
2027 turnaround schedule
Q (Vitaly Kononov · Freedom): He asked what the turnaround calendar looks like for 2027.
A: Management said there is one turnaround planned for 2027 at the Cherokee, Alabama facility, scheduled for September of next year. No other 2027 turnarounds were mentioned.
"For 2027, we have one turnaround set for our Cherokee, Alabama facility, and that'll be in September of next year." — Mark Behrman (CEO·CHAIR)