Oct 30, 2026 earnings call — Capital plan increase and data center growth
Refreshed capital plan of $15.9 billion and long-term earnings growth target of 8% plus.
Revenue $1.3B (est $1.3B) · EPS $1.52 (est $1.31)
Key quotes
"5 data centers support our expectation for greater than 60% contracted demand growth by 2031."
"The incremental investments from last year supporting this growth include 1.2 gigawatts of additional natural gas combustion turbines to meet growing customer energy demand and an additional 200 megawatts of energy storage to support system resiliency and integration of new load growth."
"Over the life of the 30-year loans, when fully funded, we estimate up to $1.2 billion of cumulative customer savings when compared to traditional debt financing."
Analyst Q&A 7
2027 base growth and data center size
Q (Nicholas Campanella · Barclays): He asked if 2027 should be the base to grow 8% plus from and whether the plan could beat 9%. He also asked how the ten sites compare in gigawatts to the 2.4 gigawatts and whether the ten sites are on top of that.
A: They said you can use either the $3.41 midpoint for 2026 or the new $3.68 for 2027 as the base. The plus sign means at least 8% earnings growth each year from 2027 through 2030. They said sites vary, are at least several hundred megawatts, they expect another gigawatt in the next 6 months, and the three existing sites have 3.4 gigawatts committed with additional growth and another seven sites under discussion.
"And then for your second question regarding the Plus sign, think of the plus sign is representing earnings growth of at least 8% each year over the 2027 through 2030 planning period." — Robert Durian (CFO)
cost to serve next 1 GW
Q (Rinny Singh · BofA): He asked about capital intensity for the next 1 gigawatt given MISO changes and prior generation announcements, and whether capacity must be built in parallel or depends on curtailability. He also asked about the Wisconsin large load tariff proposal and its effects on existing customers.
A: They said they align generation capacity with load ramps and cash flows. For each extra gigawatt of load they expect about $2 billion to $3 billion of additional CapEx, focused on the capacity resources needed to serve customers. On Wisconsin, they said the proposal complements prior ICR filings, provides clarity, and they do not expect differences or to wait for commission approval to continue moving forward while notifying the commission.
"think of our capital expenditure plan updates will largely be for every gigawatt of additional load, you're probably going to see somewhere in the neighborhood of $2 billion to $3 billion of additional CapEx." — Robert Durian (CFO)
data centers, stay-outs, and O&M
Q (Julien Dumoulin-Smith · Jefferies): He asked if incremental data center customers could extend rate case stay-outs in Iowa beyond 2030 and help create stay-outs in Wisconsin. He also asked whether the move to 5% O&M is structural or a pull-forward and how they derisk procurement/EPC.
A: They said the Iowa rate stability extension shows jurisdiction attractiveness and that Mesabi has firm demand for its initial phase, with focus on non-curtailable capacity; they will evaluate continuation of stay-outs over time and Wisconsin rate review is next year, where data centers help affordability. On costs, they said they are investing more in energy delivery and generation as they build more facilities, that costs will increase with more facilities but pull-forward is not significant, and they build contingencies into projects and have high confidence in execution.
"What I will say about Mesabi is that we have firm demand to secure their initial phase of growth in the plan that we've announced to the extent that they make further investments, we would be updating our capacity needs." — Lisa Barton (CEO)
Mesabi inclusion and 2-4 GW math
Q (Paul Fremont · Ladenburg Thalmann): He asked whether Mesabi is included in the 2 to 4 gigawatts in advanced discussion and whether Mesabi is part of the 1 gigawatt expected in 6 months. He asked for a capacity size for Mesabi and whether the 400 megawatts announced earlier changed the 2 to 4 gigawatts range.
A: They said Mesabi is not included in the 2 to 4 gigawatts and not included in the additional gigawatt. They said they cannot give a capacity size for Mesabi now; the company will decide timing and size, though firm non-curtailable demand is in the plan for the first phase. They clarified the 400 megawatts announced earlier was part of the prior 2 to 4 gigawatt figure, and the total works out to 3.6 in the math discussed.
"No, think of that -- that was part of the 400 megawatts that we announced earlier this year." — Robert Durian (CFO)
Iowa rate freeze drivers and growth drivers
Q (Anthony Crowdell · Mizuho): He asked how much the ability to earn the authorized ROE during Iowa's rate freeze depends on tax credits or flexing O&M, and how much cushion exists if O&M or depreciation run ahead. He also asked what must change to move from about 7% to 8% plus growth.
A: They said the plan includes about 1.2 gigawatts of energy storage, which drives a significant amount of tax credit and gives confidence to manage changes in sales or O&M through 2030, supporting the extended rate freeze. They said the biggest driver to reach higher earnings growth is the capital expenditure plan and any capital upside from additional load growth or projects like wind repowering, so watch CapEx for direction.
"Think of it as when you look at the capital expenditure plan that we've announced here as far as the refresh plan, there's about 1.2 gigawatts of energy storage built into the plan." — Robert Durian (CFO)
growth range, equity timing, tax credits
Q (Andrew Weisel · Scotiabank): He asked what the 6%–8% figure refers to versus the 8% plus guidance, and how to bridge the change in equity needs given the new CapEx outlook. He also asked whether the additional year in IPLs comes from better tax credits or other drivers.
A: They said 6%–8% is a much longer-term CAGR, while they have clear visibility to 8% plus for 2027–2030 and aim to extend that. On equity, they said about $600 million to $700 million will be executed before year-end and timing changes can explain the bridge to a higher future equity total. On tax credits, they said adding energy storage and structuring projects into energy communities and meeting domestic content can raise credits, and "you can get anywhere from 30% to 50%."
"And so you can get anywhere from 30% to 50%." — Robert Durian (CFO)
timing and equity for next 1GW
Q (Aditya Gandhi · Wolfe): He asked how much of the 1 gigawatt they expect to contract in 6 months falls inside the current planning period versus after it, and whether 40% equity is a good rule of thumb for that incremental CapEx.
A: They said the ramp for that next gigawatt will start more in the '29–'30 time frame and much of the capacity resources for gas generation are likely in the 2030–'31 period, so some CapEx will be in 2027–2030 and some in 2031+. They said future incremental CapEx will likely be funded with a relatively lower level of new common equity than the prior 40%–50% guidance, and that higher cash flows as the data center loads ramp later reduce the need for new equity; they will update details in future CapEx filings.
"when you think about that next gigawatt of loads, the ramp rate from that is actually going to start more in that '29, '30 time frame" — Robert Durian (CFO)