Oct 29, 2026 earnings call — Contracts, Stage 3 completion, and higher guidance
Cheniere raised 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA to $8.75 billion to $9.25 billion and DCF to $6.05 billion to $6.55 billion.
Revenue $6.2B (est $5.4B) · EPS $5.65 (est $4.33)
Key quotes
"His excellency minister Alexander Kabi and I executed 4 million tons of long term SPAs."
"We are approaching FID on this brownfield expansion. Which is expected to add well over 6 million tons per annum of production capacity to our platform at Sabine Pass."
"We achieved 2 major milestones during the third quarter. The production and export of our 5 thousandth LNG cargo and the substantial completion of the seventh and final train of Corpus Christi Stage 3."
Analyst Q&A 6
Qatar deal and demand risk
Q (Theresa Chen · Barclays): Analyst asked what Qatar Energy becoming a customer says about U.S. LNG’s strategic value and how demand destruction in Europe/Asia could affect long-term adoption in the region.
A: Management said Qatar’s deal shows U.S. LNG is becoming more valuable and that Cheniere can meet their needs and be a reliable supplier. They said they never viewed Qatar as a competitor, are honored to partner, and noted long-term contracts insulate buyers; Europe has seen roughly 20% demand decline since before the Ukraine war.
"But his excellency months ago, said that, QE would evolve into, quote, the largest trader by far, end quote." — Anatol Feygin
Forward margins and Corpus EPC timing
Q (Citi): Analyst asked how to think about forward sold margins for 2027 and where the Corpus expansion is in the EPC process and timing to lock contracts.
A: Management said they proactively sold about 4 million tons locked around $10 and still have floating volumes, and they expect 2027 performance not to be far off 2026. On Corpus, they are doing value engineering with Bechtel to lower cost, expect permits through 2027, and believe commercial contracts are in good shape to underpin expansion.
"So for 4 million tons, safe to say that is locked in around $10." — Zach Davis
Run-rate DCF and one-time upside
Q (Keith Stanley · Wolfe): Analyst asked how the prior $30/share run-rate DCF has evolved given large incremental cash flow and whether buybacks/share count projections changed; also asked what drove the big guidance raises.
A: Management said they will provide an updated run-rate after FID of train 7 and debottlenecking at Sabine, and that recent higher margins and locked sales increased cash flow and buyback capacity. They explained guidance upside came from sold cargoes, timing (extra cargoes), and roughly $700+ million of optimization across the platform.
"We will get to that. Let us FID train 7 at Sabine in, let's say, in the coming months." — Zach Davis
New customers and permitting timing
Q (Jeremy Tonet · JPMorgan): Analyst asked whether recent geopolitical shifts create more new customers for Cheniere and for updates on permitting and how much capacity is under development.
A: Management said QE surprised them but reinforces durability of long-term contracting and that they expect repeat customers and varied deal types to continue. They also said Sabine permits should be in hand before year-end and Corpus permits by mid to late 2027, ahead of any broader permitting reforms.
"we did not have QE on our bingo card In February or even in May of this year." — Anatol Feygin
Europe disruption and feed gas supply
Q (Brandon Bingham · Scotiabank): Analyst asked if European winter stress would spark more long-term contracting or just optimization opportunities, and about feed-gas supply differences between basins.
A: Management said it is "all of the above": volatility creates both optimization opportunities and support for more long-term commitments as Europe seeks supply certainty. On feed gas they said they draw from multiple basins, have managed varied gas quality over many years, and are able to handle the technical challenges so far.
"Really all of the above Europe continues to come up with ways to make its life more challenging and how we navigate that in supporting our existing European customers," — Anatol Feygin
China demand sensitivity
Q (Jean Ann Salisbury · BofA): Analyst asked whether China's lower demand this year is purely price elasticity and if management changed its structural outlook for China's LNG demand at different JKM prices.
A: Management said China is highly capable and well contracted, so price elasticity matters but the system can ramp when economics improve. They expect China’s imports to rise toward about 130 million-140 million tons from roughly 60-ish million tons this year, noting regas capacity has doubled since its high of 83 million tons three years ago.
"It is a capable system that is very well contracted on a long term basis." — Anatol Feygin