Oct 23, 2026 earnings call — Quarter results and capital allocation
Company repurchased 269 thousand shares for $100 million and expects $100 million to be a quarterly buyback run rate.
Revenue $0.5B (est $0.4B) · EPS $5.70 (est $5.11)
Key quotes
"The continued intense competition in our commercial property division weighed on our growth rate in the quarter. And excluding that 1 division, our gross written premium was down 0.5%."
"As we have noted in the past, AI has been adopted broadly across the company for some time now. Every associate has an enterprise license for 2 of the leading frontier models along with their agentic tools."
"As a result, in the third quarter, we repurchased 269 thousand shares at an aggregate cost of $100 million or just under 80% of net operating earnings in the quarter."
Analyst Q&A 11
Average premium and LAE impact
Q (Hristian Getsov · Wells Fargo): He asked how long the average premium per policy will trend and whether the shift to smaller accounts hurts loss ratios and LAE.
A: Management said the average premium is about $10.7 thousand through Q3 and will probably remain pretty steady, maybe trending slightly downward as competition picks up. On LAE they said they do not have that level of detail on the call and warned not to read too much into the change, citing assumption changes in IBNR and that reinsurance retentions would not impact it.
"It will probably remain pretty steady but it will trend maybe slightly downward as competition picks up." — Stuart Winston
Rates vs loss costs; prior-year development
Q (Andrew Kligerman · TD Cowen): He asked what portion of the 0.9% casualty written premium change was due to rates and whether pricing kept up with loss cost. He also asked which accident years and products drove the 4.5% prior-year favorable development.
A: They said pricing varies by division and is generally in line with the Amwins index, and that in some divisions loss cost trends are running slightly ahead of rates but management is comfortable with margins. On the 4.5% prior-year development, they said much of the favorable development came from shorter-tail lines, notably property and some shorter claims-made lines, while they remain more cautious on long-tail reserves.
"I can tell you that a lot of the prior year favorable development was disproportionately the shorter tail lines of business." — Christopher R. Tangard
Investment yield pickup and pricing targets
Q (Pablo Singzon · JPMorgan): He asked how much net investment pickup came from bonds they repositioned and whether they still price to historical margins and how investment income factors into pricing.
A: They said the bonds sold versus bought had a delta just shy of 400 basis points and they reinvested about $130 million, which they estimated equates to about $5.5 million to $6 million annually. They also said they manage all product lines to a 20% ROE or greater and translate that ROE into loss ratio targets, so they only write business that meets their return targets.
"The delta on the bonds we sold and the bonds we purchased was just shy of 400 basis points and the proceeds we reinvested were about $130 million So you can do the math on it, $5.5 million to $6 million annually." — Christopher R. Tangard
Expense ratio and tech productivity
Q (Michael Phillips · Oppenheimer): He asked how the shift toward smaller accounts affected the expense ratio and whether tech productivity gains offset slower top-line growth.
A: They said they do not see any real impact on the expense ratio and that the average premium is only modestly lower while submissions, quotes and bind orders are up. They added that rollout of automation across underwriting, claims and policy services has a positive impact and that the modest negative impact from a decline in premium is largely offset; they noted the other underwriting expense component was steady at 10.2% and expect the expense ratio to drift downward over time due to technology.
"I do not see any real impact on the expense ratio." — Michael Patrick Kehoe (CEO·CHAIR)
Commercial property trends and competition
Q (Andrew Andersen · Jefferies): He asked whether commercial property contraction should moderate in 2027 and whether competition is coming from admitted carriers versus E&S/MGAs. He also asked if the $100 million quarterly buyback run rate applies beyond the current authorization.
A: They said they are hopeful the property reductions will moderate and there are some signs the reductions are easing but it is day by day. They said the admitted market is more prevalent in property with MGAs, while on casualty the competition on larger deals is coming from fronts and MGAs; Christopher said the $100 million was intended for the remainder of their repurchase authorization.
"I think the admitted market is more prevalent in the property space with MGAs." — Stuart Winston
Buyback cadence, accident-year loss outlook, submissions
Q (Mark Hughes · Truist): He asked if a $100 million quarterly buyback run rate would be maintained beyond this authorization, how to think about current accident-year loss ratios, and whether submissions growth reflects more shopping or mix shift out of admitted into E&S.
A: They said they have not decided beyond the current authorization and that growth is the biggest priority; if they cannot grow near term they will use buybacks and then a small dividend for capital allocation. They declined to give forward guidance on the accident-year loss ratio but said losses are coming in below expected and that submissions growth reflects a bit more shopping plus new products and new distribution partners.
"If we cannot grow the business near term as rapidly as we want, it is buybacks and then the small dividend is how we are thinking about capital allocation." — Michael Patrick Kehoe (CEO·CHAIR)
AI and tech advantages, examples
Q (Morgan Stanley): He asked how AI is changing competition and where Kinsale's tech lead shows up, and for examples like sub-24-hour quote and bind capabilities.
A: They said AI and modern data let underwriters quote more quickly and handle more volume, policy operations process transactions faster, claims examiners are more efficient, IT can deliver features quicker, and analytics can turn unstructured data into structured data. They added their new business quote ratio is about 75% of submissions turning into quotes and most quotes go out in a day or two, and they highlighted a low 22% GAAP expense ratio as a benefit tied to tech.
"We are definitely able to--our underwriters are definitely able to quote more quickly but also handle more volume." — Salmaan K. Allibhai FCAS MAAA
Large account share and loss seasonality
Q (Ryan Tunis · Cantor): He asked if the shift from large to small accounts is causing growth deceleration and what percent of business is large today versus five years ago; he also asked why the usual second-half loss seasonality did not appear.
A: They said they cannot provide a five-year comparison but that about 0.7% of policies are $100 thousand premium and up and that represented about 12% of overall premium. They said that mix point likely does not materially hurt growth, but they are seeing lower hit ratios and lower renewal retention on larger accounts; on seasonality they said there is nothing unusual and the seasonality generally still exists.
"I think 0.7% of our policies were $100 thousand premium and up but that represented about 12% of the overall premium." — Michael Patrick Kehoe (CEO·CHAIR)
Yield impact, reserves, personal lines
Q (Rowland Mayor · RBC): He asked whether yield pickup changes targeted loss ratios, whether reserve conservatism affects pricing and growth, and anything notable in the shrinking personal insurance business.
A: They said the current yield pickup does not change pricing targets near term but if it persisted it could affect pricing over time. They said reserve conservatism is weighing on growth because some competitors are very aggressive, and they review claims activity against actuarial assumptions each quarter before adjusting reserves; for personal lines they noted an adjustment in Louisiana concentration and more competition in California and Florida, with some potential pickup from fair plan rate changes and efforts to ramp distribution and systems work.
"And, you know, if it persisted you know, well into the future, at some point, it probably would impact pricing a little bit." — Michael Patrick Kehoe (CEO·CHAIR)
Casualty tort inflation and commission effects
Q (Mike Zaremski · BMO): He asked whether they see a change in the slope of lawsuit/tort inflation and whether rising commission rates are causing Kinsale's win ratio to fall.
A: They said they do not see anything particular on the tort inflation slope and do not have enough evidence to comment either way. They said their hit ratio and renewal retention are steady year over year while submissions, quotes and bind orders are growing; they acknowledged commission pressure creates tension in the market but said Kinsale pays slightly lower commissions while offering low cost, strong service and broad risk appetite, and that competition is driven more by alternative capital than just interest rates.
"I do not think we are seeing anything in particular. I do not think we have enough evidence to comment either way." — Salmaan K. Allibhai FCAS MAAA
Coverage richness and pricing approach
Q (Pablo Singzon · JPMorgan): He asked whether the richness of coverage (limits, exclusions) has changed versus a few years ago and how Kinsale is positioned versus competitors.
A: They said they manage their own book to a 20% ROE or greater and that pricing explicitly accounts for limits, deductibles and state territory. They said they use a quantitative approach to manage pricing, cannot speak for everyone else, and that they have some disciplined competitors but also some that are not.
"We just manage our own book of business to the 20% ROE or greater." — Michael Patrick Kehoe (CEO·CHAIR)