Oct 27, 2026 earnings call — ARCALYST commercial growth and guidance raise
Company raised full-year revenue guidance to between $1.045 billion and $1.050 billion, driven by ARCALYST momentum.
Revenue $0.3B (est $0.3B) · EPS $0.56 (est $0.37) · Next-quarter revenue outlook $1.0B–$1.1B
Key quotes
"We announced today that we expect data from this trial in the second half of 2027."
"We expect full year R&D expenses of $160 million-$170 million in 2026."
Analyst Q&A 5
KPL-387 enrollment and global sites
Q (Anupam Rama · JPMorgan): The analyst asked about enrollment dynamics and site initiation for KPL-387 and why management is confident in pivotal-data timing in the second half of 2027.
A: Management said the study is global and they are enrolling and dosing patients. They emphasized strong momentum with investigators and a capable clinical operations team, which supports the timeline.
"The only thing that I would add is that on clinicaltrials.gov, you can see the extent of the global nature of our program." — John Paolini
Penetration rate and marketing spend
Q (Edward Nash · Canaccord Genuity): The analyst asked how to think about the future shape of penetration, whether remaining patients differ, and how much more SG&A or DTC spend is needed to increase uptake.
A: They said penetration was about 23% in the multiple recurrence group and about 20% of prescriptions are in the first recurrence group. Management said many patients remain to be reached and that their DTC and field spending is efficient, targeted, and value-driven to reach dispersed patients.
"It's very efficient, very targeted type of expenditure to address appropriately the market that we have." — Ross Moat (COO)
387 transition study and 1161 timing
Q (Paul Choi · Goldman Sachs): The analyst asked for more color on the KPL-387 switch strategy and what data will support payer acceptance, and asked about indication choice and criteria for KPL-1161.
A: They said the KPL-387 study is a posology study focused on dosing and administration to inform the label, looking at transitions from stable oral or biologic therapies to KPL-387 monotherapy at 300 mg subcutaneous monthly. For KPL-1161 they expect to start a phase I program by year-end but have not yet disclosed indication plans; the longer duration could suit chronic or lifelong diseases.
"It's designed, as you can see in the slides, we're looking at how patients are coming from stable therapies, whether they're oral or biologic, and then transitioning to KPL-387 monotherapy at the 300 mg subcutaneous monthly dose level." — John Paolini
New vs repeat prescribers and first recurrence
Q (Peter Chen · Jefferies): He asked what share of new patients came from first-time versus repeat prescribers and whether first recurrence patient growth changed this quarter.
A: Management said they do not share that detailed breakdown externally. They did report about 5,450 total prescribers at the end of Q3 (up ~450 quarter-on-quarter), with around 30% being repeat prescribers (up ~170); historically about 80% of prescriptions were second-plus recurrence and 20% first recurrence.
"We do not share some of that data directly externally, but of course it is the type of thing that we look at a lot internally in the business." — Ross Moat (COO)
Which patients may switch; cash and BD plans
Q (Geoff Meacham · Citi): He asked which ARCALYST patients might switch to KPL-387 beyond convenience and which patient attributes would prompt faster switching, and also asked how they think about cash use and business development.
A: They said blockade of IL-1 alpha and beta is central to disease control and KPL-387 adds optionality for patients and physicians, with efficacy to be shown in the phase III trial and transition mechanics studied in the 212 study. On cash and BD, management said they focus on maximizing value, are judicious in capital allocation, look at BD opportunities but hold a high bar given their commercial products and pipeline.
"I think that our position with regard to the management of the disease is that blockade of IL-1 alpha and IL-1 beta is critical to maintaining disease control and to gaining the disease control as a monotherapy." — John Paolini