Oct 21, 2026 earnings call — Major natural gas project sanctions and backlog growth
Project backlog increased from $9.6 to 14.4 billion this quarter, the biggest news on the call.
Revenue $4.5B (est $4.4B) · EPS $0.35 (est $0.32)
Key quotes
"In the $5.4 billion of additions are two highly strategic joint venture projects, SNG's Southeast Connector and NGPL's Permian Link."
"Adjusted EPS increased by 21%, adjusted EBITDA grew by 9%, and every one of our business segments contributed to that growth."
"I remind you that we deliver about 40% of all the natural gas in America, including approximately 40% of all LNG feed gas and over 50% of gas exports to Mexico."
Analyst Q&A 14
TGP 219 South project size and customers
Q (Theresa Chen · Barclays): Analyst asked how customership is progressing for TGP 219 South, how big the project might be given high interest, and whether TGP will serve new Southeast demand.
A: Management said the non-binding open season showed strong interest and that 219 will help with the molecule shortfall. The ultimate size depends on who signs and timing; they may stage the work and could adjust CapEx from the roughly $1.5 billion estimate. They also said Tennessee and a middle-system corridor position them to serve downstream Southeast demand.
"We do feel 219, in some form, is going to help contribute to that molecule shortfall." — Sital Mody
Southeast Connector scale and permits
Q (Julien Dumoulin-Smith · Jefferies): Analyst asked how big Southeast Connector could scale beyond the $3.1 billion net to KMI and how permitting reform affects the project.
A: Management said the binding open season showed significant interest and they are still negotiating precedent agreements and credit; scaling to 3.5 Bcf is plausible. On permitting, they are comfortable with the current regime and said a permit bill in Congress could help, but projects can be completed under current rules.
Future project pipeline and run-rate CapEx
Q (Jeremy Tonet · JPMorgan): Analyst asked if there are more large projects coming and what run-rate CapEx to expect after today’s announcements, and whether 2027 EBITDA drivers are predictable.
A: Management said more projects are possible, including another roughly $1.5 billion project, and highlighted a $14.4 billion backlog supporting credibility. They expect a run-rate CapEx around $4 billion for the next few years. On 2027 guidance, they declined to preview it and said items like winter weather and commodity price uplift are uncertain and will be handled in budget sensitivities.
"I think it is probably going to be around $4 billion-ish for the next few years in terms of the CapEx that we would expect to spend" — Kim Dang
TGP 219 South scope and Permian pipes demand risk
Q (Praneeth Satish · Wells Fargo): Analyst asked if the $1.5 billion gets to 2 Bcf/day or is for the 500 MMcf/day open season and whether Permian pipelines risk overbuilding and recontracting risk.
A: Management said costs depend on shipper receipts; scaling to 2–3 Bcf would be higher than $1.5 billion and they are focused on the brownfield component first, adding volume later. On Permian pipes, they see demand pull from power and LNG, believe long-term contracts and storage tie-ins underpin those pipes, and feel well positioned from a demand perspective.
"We're really focused on, at this point, just the brownfield component, and then ultimately we'll adjust accordingly with incremental volume adds." — Sital Mody
Trident timing and Florida demand
Q (Manav Gupta · UBS): Analyst asked for an update on Trident phases and how Trident helps move gas around Gulf Coast, and about Florida market and FGT expansions.
A: Management said Trident is on time and on budget and should be delivered in February of next year. They said Trident helps serve an industrial and power corridor and connects to Gulf Coast via other headers and expansions, enabling service to Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast demand. On Florida, they noted strong demand and that FGT (operated by another party) has sanctioned projects and discussions for future expansions are ongoing.
"Trident is on time and on budget and should be delivered in February of next year." — Kim Dang
Permian Link anchor timing and Southeast gas sources
Q (Jean Ann Salisbury · BofA): Analyst asked whether the anchor hyperscaler will be online before Permian Link and whether Southeast Connector gas will come mainly from Appalachia requiring more expansions.
A: Management would not disclose customer timing but said they are accommodating multiple customers; the anchor tenant drives speed and Permian Link provides storage-linked flexibility for reliability. For Southeast supply, they said they have access to multiple trunk pipelines and interconnects, so supply can come from Gulf Coast, Appalachia, and other basins rather than solely Appalachia.
"When you think about where the supply could come from, we've always said we need incremental molecules to move, not just gas on gas competition." — Sital Mody
Which basins will feed Gulf Coast LNG demand
Q (Brandon Bingham · Scotiabank): Analyst asked how Permian and Haynesville will compete to supply Gulf Coast LNG and who will drive capacity buildout, and asked Kinder Morgan's share of U.S. gas flows.
A: Management said it will be 'all of the above' with multiple basins supplying growth and that building midstream infrastructure is key. They also stated Kinder Morgan moves about 40% of U.S. gas, about 50% to Mexico, 40% to LNG, and 45% of southern power demand.
"There's no science behind this other than we move about 40% of the gas in the U.S. market" — Kim Dang
SEC routing and Western Gateway JV risk
Q (Keith Stanley · Wolfe): Analyst asked if SEC sanction includes extension to Nashville and phasing/timing, and how cost overrun risk is shared for Western Gateway JV.
A: Management confirmed SEC includes the Greenfield line and said Permian Link comes online in 2030 while SEC comes on over 2030, 2031, and 2032. On Western Gateway, they said they are being prudent with spending and have certain cost protections against cost overruns, without detailing the mechanism.
"On Permian Link, it comes online in 2030, and on SEC, it comes on 2030, 2031, and 2032." — Kim Dang
Customer tone and project returns
Q (John Mackay · Goldman Sachs): Analyst asked whether customer engagement tone changed recently and whether customers accept higher implied costs/returns on new pipelines, plus producer vs demand-side mix.
A: Management said customer engagement has not changed and dialogues continue, with more focus on storage to handle volatility. They noted construction costs have risen (steel, compression) but they have not changed their return thresholds and have not seen customer pushback; projects they sanction are demand-pull and they feel good about those customers.
"But we have not seen a lot of customer pushback as a result of the increase in the materials cost that we have seen." — Kim Dang
Timing to fill growth in 2029–2030 and Arizona opportunities
Q (Spiro Dounis · Citi): Analyst asked what will fill growth in 2029–2030 versus later, and whether there are prospects to re-enter Arizona pipeline opportunities.
A: Management listed projects that will drive 2029–2030 growth: South System 4 and MSX phases, and said Permian Link likely adds in fourth quarter timing; growth will vary year to year. On the West and Arizona, they see power demand and coal-to-gas conversions and have ongoing discussions but it's too early to comment on specifics.
"South System 4 is coming online Q4 of 2028 and Q4 of 2029." — Kim Dang
EOR and RNG expansion plans
Q (Gabe Moreen · Mizuho): Analyst asked if higher oil forward curve brings CO2/EOR expansions back and whether Kinder Morgan might expand RNG or invest more in Double H / Hiland.
A: Management said EOR projects take time; they look at the forward curve but remain cautious and demand higher returns for EOR versus fee-based businesses. On RNG, they are aware of third-party processes but will be careful due to past operational issues and would require higher returns to expand. For Double H / Hiland, they feel well positioned but can adjust if macro changes.
"We demand higher returns than we do on fee-based businesses, to take account of that risk." — Company Representative
Supply assurance for project shippers and Southeast demand math
Q (Zack Van Everen · TPH): Analyst asked if projects required customers to sign supply agreements with producers and clarified an earlier Southeast demand math comment.
A: Management said they do not make projects contingent on customers signing supply deals; customers must secure molecules themselves and the company explains the macro environment. On the Southeast number, Sital said he simplified the math by dividing by 5 and referenced 'inefficient plants.'
"The answer to your latter question is no." — Sital Mody
Permian Link IRR and upstream control
Q (Jason Gabelman · TD Cowen): Analyst asked whether Permian Link's mid-teen IRR target reflects higher risk with one anchor and whether moving upstream into Marcellus G&P has commercial value.
A: Management said they approach the project like others and can adjust risk-return thresholds depending on customer cost sharing; if customers don't share cost risk they need higher returns. On upstream G&P, they said they stick to building large-scale infrastructure and prefer collaborating with sophisticated customers rather than owning upstream G&P.
"We can move up and down on the risk-return threshold or value proposition." — Kim Dang
How KMI and JVs will fund project contributions
Q (Harry Mateer · Barclays): Analyst asked how Kinder Morgan will balance KMI equity contributions versus JV balance sheet funding during construction for SEC and Permian Link.
A: Management said funding will be a combination: JVs can fund part via cash flow and debt while owners make equity contributions as needed. They plan to structure JV debt to maintain existing JV ratings and noted KMI could fund 100% of CapEx if required given balance sheet flexibility.
"If we do that, though, our plan is to do it in such a way to maintain the existing ratings at those JV pipes." — Kim Dang