Oct 13, 2026 earnings call — Quarterly results, AI and capital priorities
JPMorgan reported net income of $15.3 billion for the quarter.
Revenue $50.2B (est $51.2B) · EPS $5.75 (est $5.93) · Next-quarter revenue outlook $25.5B
Key quotes
"we are not gonna allow just any agent to come, outside agent to come inside the company because it is just too risky for clients and for JPMorgan."
"The capital hierarchy has always been the same. I mean, after you pay your dividend, which hopefully will be steady, we would like-- we really like investing in organic growth."
"Deposit growth of 4% year on year was stronger this quarter as we continued to grow our customer base across consumer and business banking, and we retained our number 1 position in retail deposit share based on FDIC data."
Analyst Q&A 12
Agentic AI risk and bank use
Q (Ebrahim Poonawala · BofA): Analyst asked how JPMorgan views disruption risk from agentic AI and whether rogue agents make it harder for a bank to deploy agentic AI, both for competition and implementation.
A: Management said agentic personal agents combine yield-seeking flows and fintech competition, so the threat is not brand new but is being watched closely. They said JPMorgan is experimenting (smart cash pilot) and values its branch network, customer trust, and decades of investment. They also said they will not allow outside agents inside the company because of customer and firm risk.
"So in that sense, the kind of agentic personal agents, whatever stuff, it is just the intersection of those 2 things, and it is not new." — Jeremy Barnum (CFO)
2027 NII outlook and expenses
Q (John McDonald · Truist): Analyst asked Jeremy to unpack the new 2027 NII central case, including assumptions on balance sheet growth, deposit pricing and higher rates. He also asked preliminary thoughts on investment spend and expense drivers for next year.
A: Management explained that annualizing the Q4 NII ex-Markets guide gives about $102 billion and they are guiding to $5 billion more to reach $107 billion, with roughly a quarter of that from the yield curve and the rest from balance sheet growth and mix. On expenses, they said preliminary views put consensus near $114 billion and their current read is not far from that, while noting budget decisions and AI investments could move the picture.
"So if you start with what we have given you as the NII ex-Markets guide for fourth quarter, which is 27.5, and you annualize that, you get something like $102 billion." — Jeremy Barnum (CFO)
Capital priorities and pipeline
Q (Erika Najarian · UBS): Analyst asked why buyback was only $1 billion versus prior cadence and asked for capital priorities given Basel III endgame and GSIB changes, plus a follow-up on the pipeline for Wall Street and Main Street activity.
A: Management said they estimate about $30 billion of excess capital and that after dividends they prefer investing in organic growth before buybacks. They described many deployment opportunities (security resiliency, SRI, Innovation Economy) and said the pipeline looks healthy but is an "accordion" that can open or close quickly.
"So I think we have told you all that we have probably $30 billion or something of excess capital." — James Dimon (CHAIR)
Where capital allocation is tightened
Q (Chris McGratty · KBW): Analyst asked where JPM is less comfortable allocating capital, what they are pulling back from or seeing peers do that they won't. He also asked about consumer durability at sustained high rates.
A: Management said they are tightening credit a bit because some credit terms and structures have become too loose, like weak covenants and over-priming assets. On the consumer, they said consumers are currently healthy due to a strong labor market, but prolonged high real rates would likely raise unemployment and weaken consumer credit.
"I am not gonna give you very specific stuff, but we are tightening up a little bit credit." — James Dimon (CHAIR)
Consumer deposits and markets demand
Q (Autonomous): Analyst asked about the 4% year-over-year CCB deposit growth, whether rate-seeking behavior is changing deposit expectations, and how JPM is adjusting to competition for deposits. He also asked about client demand for balance sheet in markets.
A: Management said no significant change to core expectations: consumer deposit growth has reasserted as yield-seeking flows faded and they expect modest migration to higher-beta products if rates rise. On markets, demand for balance sheet in equities remains strong and they are vigilant about credit and AI-driven innovation to avoid risks.
"I think the simple answer is no significant change to our core expectations here." — Jeremy Barnum (CFO)
AI benefits, costs, and agent risks
Q (Mike Mayo · Wells Fargo): Analyst asked the degree AI helps JPM, requested updated AI spend/benefit numbers, and asked about the risk that AI agents could take deposits away and how JPM protects customer privacy and trust. Follow-up asked about token costs and model strategy.
A: Management said prior headline AI expense numbers were overstated and the true AI spend is diffused; Jeremy said he would "say something like 700 annually or something like that" but emphasized the costs are hard to ring-fence. They said benefits from generative/agentic AI are not yet visible in quarterly earnings, highlighted long lead times to realize productivity gains, and described a model-agnostic strategy to manage token costs and avoid lock-in.
"And in terms of the visibility of the benefits, I think you are right to point out that the benefits are not observable in our current quarterly earnings." — Jeremy Barnum (CFO)
Deposit betas and hedge fund risks
Q (Gerard Cassidy · RBC): Analyst asked how JPM is thinking about deposit betas as rates start rising and whether betas may be lower this cycle given higher starting rates. He also asked about systemic risk from larger hedge funds and leverage finance.
A: Management said this cycle has limited historical precedent and deposit behavior could differ, but they view the franchise as barbelled between high-beta (wholesale, CDs) and low-beta deposits and expect local behavior roughly similar to prior patterns while preparing for scenarios. On hedge funds and leverage, they called it a known risk that has been managed for decades and stressed the need for sophisticated risk analysis and controls.
"I think locally, our beta story is pretty easy, actually, in the sense that you can almost think about the franchise as pretty barbelled between a bunch of very high beta deposits, like most of wholesale, as well as CDs and premium deposit and consumer, and then a stack of very low beta deposits" — Jeremy Barnum (CFO)
Liquidity risk from fast tech runs
Q (Glenn Schorr · Evercore): Analyst asked whether agentic AI and faster tech-driven information flows change liquidity stress testing, liquidity risk management, or the speed of deposit runs.
A: Management said they are skeptical that new tech fundamentally changes the root causes of runs, citing SVB as concentrated deposits rather than tech speed alone, and they favor running the bank with fortress principles to keep depositor confidence. They noted they hold large HQLA and are not worried short-term, but regulators should study new agent/ bot risks.
"So I think everyone's pretty eager to tell a sort of fast deposit run story in this new technology enabled world." — Jeremy Barnum (CFO)
Middle market demand and liquidity rules
Q (Manan Gosalia · Morgan Stanley): Analyst asked about commercial banking middle-market client demand for capital and whether short-end rate moves cause pullbacks. He also asked how more credit for discount window readiness would change balance sheet management.
A: Management said middle-market clients are generally managing well and not showing the same insatiable capital demand seen elsewhere, though some caution exists around higher input costs and inflation. On liquidity rules, they support regulator review (discount window, FHLB, HQLA, LCR) and said changed rules could allow safer banks to deploy more capital into broader parts of the economy.
"I do not think insatiable demand for capital applies to that subset of the client base." — Jeremy Barnum (CFO)
Noninterest bearing deposit growth
Q (Matt O'Connor · Deutsche Bank): Analyst asked how JPM is growing noninterest bearing deposits when peers are not, and how they view that deposit bucket in a higher rate environment, including the commercial side cash management drivers.
A: Management pointed to exceptionally strong net new checking growth (650 thousand this quarter) as the driver of consumer noninterest-bearing balances and said that supports long-term deposit growth. They noted wholesale reporting quirks (ECR product) can make noninterest-bearing figures look different and that commercial deposits are more competitive.
"Our net new checking account growth has been exceptionally strong, 650 thousand this quarter." — Jeremy Barnum (CFO)
ROTCE target and corporate credit
Q (David Chiaverini · Jefferies): Analyst asked whether anything in the macro or competitive environment could accelerate the path to the 17% through-cycle ROTCE target given current 21% levels, and asked about corporate credit health and the wholesale reserve build.
A: Management said the 17% target is a through-cycle objective and current high returns reflect favorable conditions that may not persist. On credit, they said the wholesale reserve build came from new activity not downgrades, corporate balance sheets are generally in good shape but pressures exist and performance will need monitoring.
"I always talked about the 17% being through the cycle." — James Dimon (CHAIR)
Markets revenue seasonality and outlook
Q (Kunpeng Ma · China): Analyst asked if there is a meaningful estimate for markets revenue flow through the quarter, noting recent volatility, and asked which business momentum supports such an estimate.
A: Management said they do not provide a markets revenue guide and reminded investors that a normal seasonal decline usually occurs between third and fourth quarter, though recent years have had unusual seasonal patterns. They said the environment is volatile and any outcome is possible.
"Just a reminder that you do tend to see significant seasonal decline between the third and the fourth quarter." — Jeremy Barnum (CFO)