Oct 30, 2026 earnings call — Downstream strength and Kearl guidance update
Net income was $2.454 billion and cash flow from operations was about $3.2 billion, driven by downstream earnings of $1.555 billion.
Revenue $11.4B (est $12.4B) · EPS $3.65 (est $3.43)
Key quotes
"Allowing us to provide low carbon, locally produced renewable diesel fuel to the tight Canadian market while capturing significant ongoing value from this strategic investment."
"we are now targeting gross annual production of 280 thousand barrels per day at Kearl."
"We are on pace to complete our NCIB by year end, and are well positioned to return additional surplus cash to shareholders in the New Year."
Analyst Q&A 6
Upstream growth and timing
Q (Greg Pardy · RBC): How much does Zymo want to grow upstream, how tied is that to finalizing the MOU, and could projects coincide with Aspen timing?
A: Management said growth decisions will be driven by technology readiness, project economics, and the fiscal and regulatory environment. They prefer EBRT long-term but will consider using SA-SAGD sooner for Aspen if the timing and economics make sense. They do not plan to build Aspen, Clark Creek, and Corner all at once and expect to sequence projects.
"Said that is gonna take 2 or 3 years to prove out the technology, and we would be in a position to FID Aspen. At the end of the decade." — John R. Whelan (CEO·CHAIR)
Cash returns and refinery margins
Q (Manav Gupta · UBS): With cash building, will you return more to shareholders after the NCIB? Also, how long will refining margins stay elevated?
A: Management said the downstream business has strong structural advantages and current margins could persist for some time given slower refining capacity recovery. On capital allocation, they said their philosophy hasn't changed and their goal is to return 100% of surplus cash to shareholders, noting cash is likely to be substantial at year end.
"Our goal is to return a 100% of our surplus cash to shareholders." — John R. Whelan (CEO·CHAIR)
WCS heavy oil discount outlook
Q (Wolfe): Where will the WCS discount head into 2027, what drives it, and how do you manage exposure?
A: Management said the WCS differential has widened due to stronger pull on light barrels, increased heavy supply, and much higher freight rates, and they expect the differential to widen further in Q4. They emphasized that WCS prices remain constructive and the company focuses on low price resiliency with low cash breakevens.
"We do anticipate that the differential will widen in the fourth quarter." — John R. Whelan (CEO·CHAIR)
MOU to definitive agreement timing
Q (Menno Hulshof · TD): Can you give confidence on converting the MOU to definitive agreements by Nov 15, and will royalty concessions wait until then?
A: Management said they are optimistic and encouraged by progress and that federal and provincial governments plus industry are working closely on the nonbinding MOU. They said there is still a lot of work to do and exact timing is uncertain, but there is strong energy and desire to reach definitive agreements.
"I remain really optimistic and encouraged by the progress that we have made." — John R. Whelan (CEO·CHAIR)
Kearl performance and renewable diesel credits
Q (Patrick O'Rourke · ATB Cormark): How is Kearl performing relative to the new guidance, and what impact would proposed clean fuels regulation tweaks have on your renewable diesel project?
A: Management said Kearl has the capability to deliver near-record performance with schedule work done and third-party outages accounted for; they feel confident in the target. On renewable diesel, they said the project is resilient across policy and market scenarios and they are working with government; they remain confident about the outlook even if tweaks occur.
"we are pretty confident about the outlook today, as John mentioned, but even in the future scenario, with these potential tweaks coming into play." — Analyst
Refinery product flexibility and mine progress
Q (Dennis Fong · CIBC): How much can refineries shift to heavier barrels or more diesel, and what incremental color on mine progression and ore quality at Kearl into 2027?
A: Management said the refineries have some flexibility on heavy feedstock and can tune production toward more distillate versus gasoline; they optimize feedstock and products daily and use logistics to place products where margins are best. On Kearl, they said 2027 will shift production into a new east pit with stronger ore quality, better engineered roads, and productivity improvements that support higher throughput.
"In 2027, we will be shifting from not only producing from our north pit, but in 2027, we will begin to produce from our new east pit." — Cheryl Gomez-Smith