Oct 29, 2026 earnings call — Raised guidance after retail strength
Raised full year HDMC retail and wholesale guidance to 135,500 to 139,000 units, citing stronger retail and dealer progress.
Revenue $1.0B (est $1.1B) · EPS $0.40 (est $0.47)
Key quotes
"More than 88% of global dealer inventory is model year 2026 product, marking our seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year inventory declines."
"Our recent motorcycle launches of Super Glide in Q2 and Deadwood in Q3 have our community highly engaged."
"As a result of the changing tariff environment, we now expect full year 2026 gross tariff costs of approximately $105 million to $120 million."
Analyst Q&A 9
dealer inventory and retail outlook
Q (Spencer Hanus · Wolfe): Analyst asked how comfortable management is with dealer inventory levels today, whether any dealers need to reduce inventories more, and how this will improve dealer profitability. He also asked about recent retail acceleration and what they see for Q4 and 2027.
A: Management said dealer inventory is much improved versus a year ago, with a high 20% reduction and most dealers now asking for more bikes. They said the portfolio additions (Sprint, Super Glide, Deadwood) are helping sell-through and dealer profitability, and they will not comment beyond the Q4 guidance on quarter-to-date retail. They view Q4 and 2027 setup as strong but will update full results next year.
"I would characterize we're in a relatively good place, meaningfully better than a year ago, high 20% reduction, which is, I think, extremely encouraging." — Arthur Starrs (CEO)
dealer requests and inventory sizing
Q (Joseph Altobello · Raymond James): Analyst asked what dealers want from corporate in 2027 after roundtables, and what level of dealer inventory is appropriate in a mid-single-digit retail growth environment.
A: Management said dealers want continued execution on the actions the company announced five months ago and they have been executing with speed and collaboration. They expect a disciplined approach to dealer inventory but said some modest growth in dealer inventory is needed to support new products like Sprint and the 2027 model lineup.
"You will see an extremely disciplined approach to what we're doing from a dealer inventory standpoint, but do expect that there will be a little bit of growth in what we're putting out from a dealer inventory standpoint to make sure that they are supported with a widening range of products across the portfolio." — Jonathan Root
margins and market share drivers
Q (Anthony Bonadio · Wells Fargo): Analyst asked about commodity pressure, hedging, and margin impact, and also about what drove market share gains in Q3.
A: Management said adjusted EBITDA margin improved in Q3 of '26 versus Q3 of '25, helped by gross margin and manufacturing efficiency, but raw materials caused about a 1% gross margin headwind. On market share, they pointed to successful launches of Super Glide and Deadwood, which filled portfolio gaps and generated strong consumer and dealer enthusiasm.
"The Super Glide and Deadwood launches were, I think, extremely successful." — Arthur Starrs (CEO)
Sprint/Sportster target riders and cost savings progress
Q (Noah Zatzkin · KeyBanc): Analyst asked who the Sprint and Sportster target customers are, whether they target new riders, and about the marketing approach. He also asked for progress on the $150 million fixed cost savings for 2027.
A: Management said Sprint will appeal to both new riders and experienced riders seeking a different use case, and highlighted Riding Academy as a channel where conversion has been low historically but could improve with these bikes. They also restated the $150 million target comes from cost of goods and operating expenses, pointed to disciplined CapEx and early wins as signs of progress toward the savings.
"We train in the United States, approximately 50,000 riders every year through our category-leading Riding Academy programs across many of our dealerships." — Arthur Starrs (CEO)
Europe performance vs brand sentiment
Q (Craig Kennison · Baird): Analyst asked whether European weakness reflects sentiment toward American brands or Harley-specific issues.
A: Management said overall European market share was stable to up, and they saw strong rider enthusiasm at events, but Germany and France are weaker and are the main sources of pressure. They emphasized that bringing Sprint and Sportster back will fill portfolio holes (they noted Sportster was 30% to 40% of mix for some dealers) and should help foot traffic and dealer profitability.
"The first thing I would say is the market share numbers for us in Europe were stable to up versus prior quarters." — Arthur Starrs (CEO)
cannibalization risk and success measures
Q (Andrew Didora · BofA): Analyst asked about potential cannibalization from Sprint and Sportster and which KPIs will show these bikes expand the rider base versus shifting existing buyers.
A: Management said cannibalization risk exists but is not believed to be significant because the bikes occupy new price points ($6,000 and $10,000) and different use cases versus the middle fairway Softail and touring models. They plan marketing and dealer partnerships, expect strong sell-through based on dealer feedback, and will be judicious with production targets to match anticipated demand.
"The risk we don't believe is significant, however, for a couple of reasons." — Arthur Starrs (CEO)
tariff recovery and Sprint/Sportster timing
Q (Tristan Thomas-Martin · BMO): Analyst asked to quantify tariff rebates/recoveries and whether any will occur in Q4, and when Sprint and Sportster will reach dealers.
A: Management said Sprint has begun shipping and will hit international markets before the end of the year, with wider rollout in early 2027; Sportster is planned for first half of 2027. On tariffs, management said gross tariffs were higher due to supplier charges but recoveries rose similarly, netting to virtually no change in the tariff impact on 2026 operating income and referred to Page 11 tables for details.
"The bikes have already be shipping -- begun shipping, and it will hit internationally first before the end of the year." — Arthur Starrs (CEO)
LiveWire funding question
Q (James Hardiman · Citi): Analyst asked whether LiveWire is likely to need additional funding next year given its cash burn and going concern language.
A: Management said they cannot comment beyond public disclosures but reiterated they do not intend to fund LiveWire's operating losses going forward. They said the LiveWire team is seeking other forms of capital and that announcements have been made as appropriate.
"We don't intend to fund the operating losses of LiveWire going forward." — Arthur Starrs (CEO)
Q4 shipment increase reasons
Q (Robin Farley · UBS): Analyst asked whether the higher Q4 shipments come from stronger late-Q3 retail or from timing changes of new model shipping, or both.
A: Management said stronger retail demand year-to-date contributed to higher shipments, and they also pulled forward some shipments from prior year launches as model year '27 is introduced in Q4. They emphasized disciplined alignment between wholesale and retail, and said model year timing changes also position the company well for 2027.
"We obviously are excited about what we're doing in terms of model year timing change and thinking about the way that we're going to end up with health of model year and what's shipping into the dealer network on that front." — Jonathan Root