Aug 13, 2026 earnings call — IPO and satellite capacity expansion
Revenue increased 87% year-over-year to $49.8 million this quarter.
Revenue $0.0B (est $0.0B) · EPS $-0.07 (est $-0.11) · Next-quarter revenue outlook $0.2B–$0.2B
Key quotes
"During the second quarter, we commissioned Block 2 Cluster 14 and brought to full operational capacity in the shortest commissioning period in our history."
"We generated record international revenue during the second quarter, onboard substantial new sovereign customers, and expanded our work across multiple agencies within existing countries."
Analyst Q&A 9
Middle East demand and orders
Q (Kristine Liwag · Morgan Stanley): They asked how to size incremental orders this year and whether book-to-bill could reach 2x for 2026. They also asked how large the addressable market becomes if latency decreases and timing for those unlocks.
A: Management said demand in the Middle East is up and they expect meaningful awards soon. They have $82 million of backlog to be recognized in the second half of 2026 and expect to reach full revenue goals. They said their addressable market is roughly $25 billion today, growing to $35 billion in about 5 years, with $7 billion to $8 billion linked to space-based capabilities and a goal of 10 minutes revisit and 10 minutes data latency in about 2 to 2.5, 3 years.
"We anticipate a number of different meaningful awards over the course of the next few months related to this area of operations." — John Serafini (CEO)
New satellites capacity and margins
Q (Jefferies): They asked how much of the new satellite capacity coming online is already matched by demand and how the advanced platforms reduce revisit rates and latency. They also asked what drives the margin outlook for the second half and into 2027.
A: John said they are launching Block 2 clusters now (Cluster 13 and 14 launched; Cluster 15 and 16 coming) and will get more onboard processing and more ground stations to reduce latency and increase collection efficiency. Craig said Q3 adjusted EBITDA should be similar to Q2 with a ramp to Q4, and that Q3/Q4 revenue will be higher than Q1/Q2. Management tied hitting future outlook to bringing more capacity online and converting pipeline.
"As we look to Q3 and Q4 in terms of revenue and adjusted EBITDA, we expect Q4 and Q3 will be higher than Q1 and Q2, as you noted." — Craig Searle (CFO)
International revenue mix trend
Q (Alexander Christian Preston · BofA): They asked how the international share of revenue will trend given demand in the Middle East and INDOPACOM and whether this will change long-run margins.
A: Management said international growth has strong tailwinds and they expect long-term revenue to be about 50-50 between U.S. government and international. They said international contracts tend to be longer, often command premium pricing, have longer sales cycles, and will expand over time to include data purchases, dedicated clusters, and on-site support (a three-leg model).
"My expectation is that long term, we're close to about 50-50 between U.S. government and international." — John Serafini (CEO)
Partnerships and Europe strategy
Q (Louie Dipalma · William Blair): They asked about strategic partnerships (Lockheed, Palantir, etc.) and other partnerships that could grow adoption of their service, especially in Europe.
A: Management listed strategic investors and partners including Lockheed, Raytheon, Airbus, Leidos, Jacobs, and Esri. They said partnerships will be important to engage across Europe, and argued speed is more important than localization so customers can leverage existing on-orbit capabilities now. They also said they can provide control in dedicated systems without full localization.
"It's essential in a given state of affairs with Ukraine and Russia that as Europe looks to add more functionality that they do so as quickly as possible." — John Serafini (CEO)
Cluster 15 launch schedule
Q (Peter Arment · Baird): They asked whether Cluster 15 faces launch issues or schedule moves and about availability of launch providers going forward.
A: Management said Cluster 15 was delayed but they are comfortable it will launch in the back half of the year. They said all launches are locked in through 2028 and they are monitoring availability beyond that, looking at other providers like Firefly, Stoke and Rocket Lab as options. They do not view near-term launch availability as a major concern.
"We're fortunate to have all of our launches locked in through 2028." — John Serafini (CEO)
What moves EBITDA range
Q (Kenneth Herbert · RBC): They asked what would get the company to the high end versus the low end of the full-year adjusted EBITDA range and key moving parts.
A: Management said the outcome depends on executing and converting the current pipeline. Hitting the high end means they convert more of the pipeline. They reiterated Q3 EBITDA should be similar to Q2 with a ramp into Q4.
"So Ken, our outlook is dependent upon executing and delivering against the pipeline opportunity that's in front of us, which we feel very confident on." — Craig Searle (CFO)
Dedicated systems and onboard processing
Q (Christopher Quilty · Quilty Space): They asked whether the company has sold dedicated systems yet and whether such sales look like normal CapEx. They also asked about SWaP constraints for adding onboard processing to smaller satellites.
A: John said they have had their first sovereign transaction, announced in December for approximately $100 million as a dedicated capacity buy over 5 years using 2 clusters. Craig said that particular sale was treated as CapEx and remains a HawkEye-owned satellite system, though future sovereign transactions could have different accounting. John said they plan to split future designs into Block 3 (smaller, lower cost) and Block 4 (larger bus), and that onboard processing is expected to be relevant across Block 2, Block 3 and Block 4.
"We actually have had our first sovereign transaction." — John Serafini (CEO)
ISA acquisition and international delays
Q (Jeff Van Rhee · Craig-Hallum): They asked how international customers reacted to the ISA acquisition and why some international prospects are slow to move.
A: Management said the ISA acquisition expanded their total addressable market and brought in new U.S. government customers, and called ISA's processing the "crown jewel" that lets them identify many more signals and offer more value worldwide. They said international deals take longer because they need both political buyoff and bottoms-up customer engagement and because procurement processes vary; they expect a couple major international deals to close in the near future.
"But to the center point of your question, the processing is the crown jewel here that we're so concerned about." — John Serafini (CEO)
Block 4 demo and customer demand
Q (Connor Dessert · Goldman Sachs): They asked if the 2027 angle-of-arrival demonstration is a full Block 4 satellite or just a piece, and whether customer demand is driving Block 4 development.
A: Management said the Block 4 demo is meant to prove a hosted payload prototype and its viability on a dedicated bus. After proving it, they can either build their own satellites or deploy the hosted payload with partners. They said Block 4 is critical to achieve low latency, more data nodes, onboard processing, cross links and ground-station densification to get data down faster.
"For us, with the Block 4, what's most important is optionality." — John Serafini (CEO)