Oct 29, 2026 earnings call — SECURE deal and margin expansion
Raised full-year 2026 guidance: revenue $8.055 billion-$8.075 billion; adjusted EBITDA $2.49 billion-$2.495 billion; adjusted free cash flow $1.02 billion.
Revenue $2.2B (est $1.5B) · EPS $0.19 (est $0.19)
Key quotes
"The third quarter also saw us closing on the SECURE acquisition."
"we remain confident in the ability to achieve the CAD 25 million of underwritten cost synergies in the near term, with opportunity for an incremental CAD 25 million to CAD 50 million of previously referenced synergies around disposal and cross-selling."
"Third quarter diesel prices accelerated another 10% over the second quarter and were over 60% higher than the prior year."
"Nowhere are these impacts more apparent than in our adjusted EBITDA margin, where we delivered an industry-leading 125 basis points of underlying adjusted EBITDA margin expansion."
Analyst Q&A 13
thoughts on take-private process
Q (Sabahat Khan · RBC): Analyst asked what Patrick wants ultimately and his view on the ongoing take-private process.
A: Patrick said he and the team want to keep winning and having fun, whether public or private, and described pros and cons of both paths and shareholder feedback.
"I think ultimately, we want to keep winning and having fun, whether that's publicly or privately." — Patrick Dovigi (CEO)
pricing and recoveries next year
Q (Tyler Brown · Raymond James): Analyst asked about pricing into next year, given rising indirect fuel and whether diligence increased conviction on pricing opportunities.
A: Management said they have identified incremental pricing opportunities and expect AI and other tools to help find more contract and surcharge upside. They reiterated prior guidance on potential price capture and said price opportunity is likely larger than the $40 million-$80 million range they originally discussed.
"If you think about the upside incremental price we articulated originally, we said it was $40 million-$80 million to capture over the next three or four years." — Luke Pelosi
SECURE upside in Western Canada
Q (Kevin Chiang · CIBC): Analyst asked how SECURE upside compares to the original underwriting and whether SECURE can absorb higher volumes or needs more investment.
A: Management said the upside is both more volume through existing waste assets and opportunities to deploy capital at high returns for customers; they expect incremental volumes though cannot precisely quantify today. They also said growth may require incremental investment evaluated like M&A, and the public/private stance affects capital pacing.
"Do I know for sure that's going to drive incremental volumes? Yes." — Patrick Dovigi (CEO)
landfill cost increases and recovery
Q (William Grippin · Barclays): Analyst asked what is driving higher landfill operating costs and how management expects to recover them through pricing.
A: Management said weather-driven leachate and more sophisticated leachate routing increased costs this quarter, partly timing-related and partly transport/processing costs. They expect the industry-wide nature of the cost pressure allows for recovery through pricing mechanisms over time; this quarter's impact was about $6 million, mostly timing related.
"So I think this quarter is not necessarily reflective of a structural, material ongoing headwind." — Luke Pelosi
SECURE one-month contribution
Q (Trevor Romeo · William Blair): Analyst asked how much SECURE contributed this quarter in revenue and EBITDA and about volume/price mix and business split.
A: Management said one month of SECURE added roughly CAD 150 million of revenue and just over CAD 50 million of EBITDA, with CAD 25 million to CAD 30 million of free cash flow contribution. They reiterated SECURE's 2026 profile of about CAD 550 million EBITDA and CAD 1.5 billion of revenue and said the mix is mostly waste and waste processing.
"So, again, we have one month of SECURE revenue contribution." — Luke Pelosi
next chapter if company stays public
Q (Stephanie Moore · Jefferies): Analyst asked what investors should expect if GFL remains public and what priorities would drive a re-rating.
A: Management said the path is similar public or private: execute the Investor Day plan and push to higher targets. They emphasized organic top-line growth, further margin expansion, and an inflection in free cash flow that allows flexible capital allocation and potential share buybacks, leading to meaningful free cash flow per share growth.
"But it starts, as I've said always, you think about the algorithm, it starts at the top line." — Luke Pelosi
diesel inflation and growth capex
Q (Bryan Burgmeier · Citi): Analyst asked how much of CAD 125 million diesel inflation will be recovered in 2026 and whether growth CapEx for SECURE and legacy GFL will change.
A: Management said about CAD 105 million-CAD 110 million will be recovered this year, leaving CAD 20 million-CAD 25 million of exposure to be recovered when diesel rolls over; diesel is a timing drag on margins this year. On CapEx, legacy GFL expects another CAD 50 million-CAD 75 million of final growth CapEx for EPR and RNG, and SECURE growth spend is under review and will be assessed like an M&A decision.
"Yeah, we are still obviously looking through all the opportunities." — Patrick Dovigi (CEO)
strategic review timeline and guidance drivers
Q (Konark Gupta · Scotia Capital): Analyst asked how the strategic review process will proceed after the November 9 special committee deadline and whether anything besides SECURE drove the guide change.
A: Management said the process is complex and the special committee must conclude by November 9; management welcomed the diligence and shareholder engagement and wants the process finalized. On guidance, Luke said most of the guide change is from M&A, with about 15% from SECURE, 180 basis points from FX, and the remainder from organic items and commodity prices.
"So you effectively have 16% incremental revenue growth versus the original sort of guidance." — Luke Pelosi
RNG EBITDA timing and CapEx
Q (Jake Kooyman · Wells Fargo): Analyst asked where RNG EBITDA sits relative to the $125 million-$150 million target, in-service dates for remaining facilities, and 2027 RNG CapEx.
A: Management said RNG EBITDA is currently between $50 million and $75 million, with about half already in the P&L and the remaining incremental half coming late 2027 into 2028. They expect additional CapEx depending on project structure and will clarify RNG CapEx in 2027 guidance.
"I think we're, again, like we said, somewhere between $50 million and $75 million." — Patrick Dovigi (CEO)
relisting after going private
Q (James Schumm · TD Cowen): Analyst asked how hard it would be to take GFL private and then re-IPO if the business doubled in size over four to five years.
A: Management said relisting is straightforward conceptually but hinges on leverage strategy; you must decide how much leverage to run as a private company because that determines IPO size and timing. He emphasized backing into the right leverage for the market and noted free cash flow makes deleveraging feasible, but avoiding alienating public investors on re-entry is important.
"I just say that's the biggest impediment to sort of going public and going public at the right price." — Patrick Dovigi (CEO)
fuel effects on labor and pricing
Q (Shlomo Rosenbaum · Stifel): Analyst asked whether diesel-driven costs are spilling into labor and if pricing may need to rise further next year.
A: Management said quick fuel moves create short-term need to push through price and that the industry will recover roughly 95%-100% of CAD 125 million diesel impact over time. They noted all peers face the same pressures and the industry has disciplined pricing to cover internal cost inflation.
"Listen, I think, again, quick movements in fuel, knee-jerks, you're going to have to push through price." — Patrick Dovigi (CEO)
fair value of ES and GIP businesses
Q (Chris Murray · ATB Cormark): Analyst asked whether the strategic review changes views on the infrastructure businesses (GIP and ES) and what fair value might be.
A: Management said ES has grown above original carve-out plans and could reach about $1 billion EBITDA in five years, noting similar sector multiples of 15-16x and that they would not monetize now. On GIP, they noted growth from just over $200 million to $350 million EBITDA and substantial organic and M&A pipeline, targeting $500 million-$550 million EBITDA before considering monetization in 2-2.5 years.
"GIP, again, we carved that business out just doing over $200 million of EBITDA." — Patrick Dovigi (CEO)
M&A capacity public vs private
Q (Adam Bubes · Goldman Sachs): Analyst asked about M&A runway in the U.S. versus Canada and how much more M&A could be done if private without public scrutiny.
A: Management estimated as a public company they could deploy about CAD 1.3 billion-CAD 1.4 billion today and that could rise to around CAD 2 billion per year over three to four years as the business grows. If private with less leverage scrutiny, they said they could deploy roughly CAD 2 billion-CAD 2.2 billion per year, implying an annual delta of about CAD 600 million-CAD 700 million of additional deployment.
"I think over the next three or four years, that number will grow to somewhere closer to CAD 2 billion that you could deploy." — Patrick Dovigi (CEO)