Oct 29, 2026 earnings call — Pacing store expansion and loyalty pilot
Company narrowed fiscal 2026 sales guidance to $4.765 billion to $4.835 billion.
Revenue $1.2B (est $1.2B) · EPS $0.61 (est $0.57) · Next-quarter revenue outlook $4.8B–$4.8B
Key quotes
"Pro penetration increased to 55% for the quarter from approximately 50% in the prior year period, reflecting our belief that we are continuing to gain share within the professional flooring market."
"In light of these conditions, we believe it is prudent to moderate the pace of our warehouse store expansion and currently plan for 10 to 15 openings in 2027."
"we recently launched the pilot of our new Pro loyalty program in select markets, marking another important milestone and keeping us on track for a broader launch in the first quarter of 2027"
Analyst Q&A 10
LVT supply and pricing outlook
Q (Charles Grom · Gordon Haskett): Analyst asked about supply in the LVT category and whether Floor & Decor might lower prices to increase unit velocity.
A: Management said they have taken actions: special buys, new everyday SKUs, and surgical price investments. They expect the category to remain negative through 2027 and see supply pressure until housing improves.
"And I would say at this point, we're really pleased with the actions that we've taken." — Bradley Paulsen (CEO)
Protecting profit if demand stays weak
Q (Simeon Gutman · Morgan Stanley): Analyst asked if management will protect profit if existing home sales stay weak and whether big-ticket demand is bottoming or worsening.
A: Management said their approach is balanced: protect profitability while investing surgically in price where there is elasticity. They noted they can flex costs (labor, discretionary spend, G&A) and will not sacrifice customer service while they push for market share.
"We're going to protect the profitability of the business, and then continue to be surgical in where we invest in price in particular." — Bradley Paulsen (CEO)
Pro loyalty program investment and timing
Q (Seth Sigman · Barclays): Analyst asked about the investment and timeline for the Pro loyalty program and its effect into 2027.
A: Management said the Pro program is in beta in 3 markets and initial associate and customer feedback is positive. They expect a ramp over months, expect a slight headwind to gross margin rate early, but believe it will drive share of wallet and be accretive to operating income over time.
"We are on track to launch that in the first quarter nationally." — Bradley Paulsen (CEO)
Merchandising to lift mature store sales
Q (Steven Forbes · Guggenheim): Analyst asked what merchandising initiatives are planned for 2027 to boost mature store volumes and productivity.
A: Management emphasized optimizing the existing assortment, rethinking store space, and opening slightly smaller stores to free selling square footage. They plan to expand installation materials and outdoor assortments, and continue testing new categories to repurpose space for productivity.
"One of the things that we've communicated as we open new stores, the average size is going to be 55,000 to 65,000 square feet." — Bradley Paulsen (CEO)
Gross margin outlook into 2027
Q (Michael Lasser · UBS): Analyst asked why gross margin shouldn't be modeled lower for 2027 given loyalty rollout, lapping tariff refunds, supply costs, and pricing pressures.
A: Management said planning is early but they have levers to offset pressures and are confident they can manage for market share while maintaining price gaps. They noted diesel fuel is a point-in-time pressure and the team is experienced at managing such headwinds.
"But just like we do and have done in the past, this is a battle-tested team, and we'll do what we can to make sure that we manage the business, to make sure that we're driving for as much market share as possible." — Bryan Langley (CFO)
Board changes and capital markets experience
Q (Christopher Horvers): Analyst asked what drove the board changes and whether unit growth moderation was related; also asked if capital would shift to buybacks or other alternatives.
A: Management said the board changes were due to succession planning and not connected to the store-growth decision. They highlighted adding a director with capital markets experience to help long-term value creation, but did not discuss reallocating CapEx to buybacks.
Slowing unit growth to 10–15 stores
Q (Steven Zaccone · Citi): Analyst asked why unit growth was lowered for 2027 and whether this is temporary versus a new run rate, and which markets will be prioritized.
A: Management said the slowdown is a pacing decision, not a change to the 500-store commitment, and they'll focus on Tier 1 and Tier 2 urban markets with smaller 55,000 to 65,000 square foot stores. They called the move temporary and will reaccelerate when demand drivers improve.
"We are still fully committed to 500 stores." — Bradley Paulsen (CEO)
Share of sales from new home builds
Q (Peter Keith · Piper Sandler): Analyst asked whether weakness in new home building is affecting Floor & Decor and what percent of sales that represents.
A: Management said they focus on existing home sales and only a very small percentage of their business is tied to new home construction. They said new home impact is minimal and the RAM and Spartan teams have limited exposure to new builds.
"We really play with existing home sales, a very, very small percentage of our business is on new home sales." — Bradley Paulsen (CEO)
Pilot results and timing of Pro benefits
Q (Phillip Blee · William Blair): Analyst asked for early takeaways from the Pro pilot and when comp benefits might appear after national rollout.
A: Management said it's too early for full learnings since the pilot is under two weeks in some markets but feedback is encouraging. They expect enrollment and impact to take time and said benefits should start to show in the P&L at some point in 2027, without committing to timing.
"I think you're going to see the benefits certainly start to come through in the P&L at some point in 2027." — Bradley Paulsen (CEO)
Preparing for AI/agentic commerce
Q (David Bellinger · Mizuho): Analyst asked how Floor & Decor is preparing for agentic commerce and whether they see LLM-driven traffic today.
A: Management said agentic commerce and AI are exciting and top of mind, but it's early for their business and they are still forming their approach. They will not share specific plans now but believe their category is well positioned to benefit and are interested in how customer experience will change.
"It's still early days in the Floor & Decor journey when it comes to this, but certainly have an emerging thinking when it comes to, number one, how do you drive productivity inside the business, but more importantly, how is it going to evolve the customer experience?" — Bradley Paulsen (CEO)