Oct 28, 2026 earnings call — Twin Eagle integration and marketing growth
Twin Eagle integration is expected to add 12¢/Mcfe to fourth-quarter margin and combined marketing is guided to $80 million EBITDA for Q4.
Revenue $3.3B (est $2.8B) · EPS $1.46 (est $1.29)
Key quotes
"We have guided for Q4 to $80 million in a low-volatility environment for our combined marketing and commercial business, including Twin Eagle."
"Given our $3 billion annual capital plan, we wanted an upstream expert who has experience managing a large portfolio of assets and we wanted a former public CEO who understands our shareholders' perspective and is a great allocator of capital and can consistently deliver."
"Our hedging program, which we see as a critical risk management tool, improved our realized prices by $0.46 per Mcfe."
Analyst Q&A 12
new CEO reasons and first steps
Q (Neil Mehta · Goldman Sachs and Company): What attracted Dan to the job, which past skills matter, and his first 100 days? Follow-up: where is marketing/commercial strategy headed and which customers are prioritized (LNG, data centers, industrial)?
A: Dan said Expand has an excellent platform and he brings capital allocation and large-public-organization leadership experience. Marcel said Twin Eagle integration is underway, they guided Q4 marketing/commercial to $80 million (about 12¢/Mcf) and see a path to $500 million by 2028 (about $0.20/Mcf); they are pursuing LNG, data centers and industrial customers.
"I really see that Expand has built an amazing platform over here against the backdrop of something that could be really special." — Danny
why Dan was hired; Twin Eagle breakeven
Q (Wolfe): Why is Dan the right leader for the commercial and trading push? And where might breakeven move with Twin Eagle added?
A: Mike said Dan fits because Expand wanted someone with upstream capital-allocation experience and a proven CEO who can execute and build teams; Dan was seen as a team builder. Marcel did not provide a breakeven number in this answer; management emphasized team construction and momentum as the rationale.
"So when you put those together, it seemed like a great fit for us, and we are super pleased." — Michael A. Wichterich
follow-up on breakeven
Q: (Follow-up on breakeven question)
A: No management answer is recorded in this exchange. The analyst thanks the team but no reply from management appears in the transcript.
production plan and inflation effects
Q (Arun Jayaram · JPMorgan): How will you manage upstream volumes and capital with possible 2027 headwinds (El Nino, Permian egress timing) and what inflation pressures do you see in 2027?
A: Joshua said the team sees current demand but added supply is pressuring 2027, so they reduced activity from about 12 rigs to 10 and will keep production flexible with curtailments and deferred turn-in-lines. On inflation, diesel was the main 2026 pressure; they expect ~50% reduction in diesel use in 2027 but see Haynesville rig counts up ~35% and potential low- to mid-single-digit inflation from 2020 into 2027.
"As we think about 2027, we do start to see a little bit of shift in where we see inflationary pressures We will actually see about a 50% reduction in our diesel usage heading into 2027 as we have more e-fleets coming into the program." — Joshua J. Viets
Gulf Coast long-term supply deals and West Haynesville
Q (Matthew Portillo · TPH): How are long-term Gulf Coast gas deals evolving with LNG growth? Also, what are early productivity and breakeven views for Western Haynesville and 2027 capital plans?
A: Joshua said the market is moving to secure supply for Gulf Coast LNG demand and Expand's Gulf Coast presence is an advantage. On West Haynesville, he called it resource-dense but deep and complex, said it is high cost today and needs >$4 gas to compete; they plan about 2 appraisal wells in 2027 and will be methodical.
"I think we think about it as this place is going to need >$4 gas right now in order to compete." — Joshua J. Viets
marketing across basins and capital priorities
Q (Joshua Silverstein · UBS): How do customer conversations differ Gulf Coast vs Appalachia and how will you balance buybacks, dividend, and debt after Twin Eagle?
A: Joshua said Twin Eagle origins and 1,000+ customer relationships let them follow demand across North America rather than focus on one basin, and they see longer contracts and new large customers. Marcel said capital priorities are D&C capital, dividend, balance sheet, then growth; after Twin Eagle they will be balanced, aim to reduce leverage and keep buyback option opportunistic.
"Our capital, you know, allocation priorities are number 1, our D&C capital; number 2, our dividend number 3, our balance sheet; and number 4, what we have left goes to growth opportunities, which could include share buybacks if we see value in that." — Marcel Teunissen
M&A appetite and efficiency gains
Q (Morgan Stanley): How do you view M&A now that management is set, and what actions offset 2027 inflation pressures and drive efficiency/well performance?
A: Dan said Expand is focused on its strong portfolio but remains open to disciplined, value-accretive M&A with clear synergies. Joshua described internal continuous-improvement moves: 20% footage-per-day improvement in SW Appalachia, ~10% cost-per-foot gains, expected 2%–3% year-over-year well productivity improvement (helped by their sand supply), and continued AI use to unlock value.
organic leasing and timing of commercial deals
Q (Scott Hanold · RBC): How active was land acquisition this year and will that continue? When should we expect larger Twin Eagle commercial announcements?
A: Joshua said they spent about $250 million on organic lease buys in 2026, adding high-value locations (example: ~3,000 acres in Bradford County for ~$15 million) and expect to continue that ground game into 2027. Marcel said integration shows early wins but many are small operational items; a fuller commercial update will come after Q4, and some deals are not individually announced.
"We spent around $15 million acquiring those leases." — Joshua J. Viets
hedge strategy and marketing EBITDA path
Q (Kevin MacCurdy · Pickering Energy Partners): Where do you stand on hedging for 2027 and beyond, and what's the line of sight to $150 million incremental EBITDA by end-2028 from marketing?
A: Marcel said their hedge goal is downside protection with upside participation; they rolled hedges tactically and are about 55% hedged for 2027 at an average $3.65. Marcel and Joshua said they have good line of sight to the $150 million marketing target based on due diligence, customer feedback, and active origination, though exact timing is uncertain.
"For all of 2027 with a $3.65 kind of price on average." — Marcel Teunissen
curtailments, TILs, and Q4 guide range
Q (Charles Meade · Johnson Rice): What could change Q4 curtailments and TILs beyond weather and pipeline work, and how did you build the Q4 guide range?
A: Joshua said the Q4 guide (7.4 to 7.6 Bcf/d) reflects deliberate flexibility; they have North Appalachia curtailments and are timing new turn-in-lines. Weather, seasonal winter pops, and regional storage levels are overhangs. They will keep production aligned to price and see 2027 as a transition year while waiting for ~13 Bcf/d new demand by 2028.
"Included in our guide, and you will notice there is a relatively wide range of production expectations from 7.4 Bcf to 7.6 Bcf a day for Q4." — Joshua J. Viets
LNG strategy and production management
Q (Barclays): How will you capture long-term LNG-linked margin expansion and how does Twin Eagle fit? Also, will you use DUCs/deferred volumes like in 2024 to manage production?
A: Marcel said LNG strategy ties domestic production to international pricing via LNG offtake and customers; they signed the Delfin 1.15 million tonne offtake starting 2031/2032 and will add more. Joshua agreed they will use the production-management playbook (curtailments, DUCs, deferred TILs) when it creates value.
"We have signed the Delfin agreement earlier this year, which is for 1.15 million tonnes of LNG offtake starting in 2031 toward the end of 2032." — Marcel Teunissen
value of Twin Eagle for distant customers; NE PA potential
Q (Phillip Jungwirth · BMO): How does Twin Eagle help capture supply deals outside your upstream footprint versus local projects, and is there opportunity in Northeast Pennsylvania? Also, how will new Permian pipes affect Haynesville realized price?
A: Marcel said Twin Eagle’s coast-to-coast capability lets Expand connect distant supply to demand (data centers, industrials) and be competitive nationwide; it helps reach customers far from their production. Joshua said new Permian pipes will relieve bottlenecks but over 4–6 years Haynesville may need to grow ~5 Bcf/d to meet demand, making it the marginal price setter and supporting long-term value for their portfolio.
"Having the, you know, the capability that came with Twin Eagle to connect really coast to coast allows us to kind of go after those projects." — Marcel Teunissen