Oct 28, 2026 earnings call — Production growth, Mongstad refining, and capital distribution
Equinor raised 2026 production guidance to around 4% growth.
Revenue $33.2B (est $33.3B) · EPS $1.20 (est $1.38)
Key quotes
"This quarter, we delivered a production growth of 2%. And year to date, we have delivered a production growth of almost 5%."
"So cash dividend remains our first priority. We expect to increase the quarterly cash dividend by more than 5% on an annual basis."
"Mongstad delivered record result this quarter, driven by excellent operational performance, capturing very strong refining margins."
Analyst Q&A 15
Reason for higher 2026 output
Q (Chris · BofA): He asked why 2026 production guidance was raised and how declining Norwegian fields compare to expected international startups. He also asked for an update on full-year cash flow from operations given higher gas and oil prices and changed tax timing.
A: Management said 2026 production was stronger than expected due to strong operations, high regularity across the portfolio and low decline at Johan Sverdrup. They noted 2026 is extraordinary with many ramp-ups and international start-ups, and they now estimate cash flow from operations around $29 billion based on current forward prices but warned of significant tax payments coming in first half of 2027.
"So let me start with the production So the production for the year 2026 has overall been stronger than what we have expected." — Torgrim Reitan (CFO)
Johan Sverdrup decline and buybacks
Q (Henri Patricot · UBS): He asked if Johan Sverdrup’s low decline in 2026 was unusual and whether decline will be faster in 2027. He also asked if a very high net cash position would lead to larger shareholder returns or continued deleveraging.
A: Management said Johan Sverdrup has performed better than expected, with year-to-date decline at 11% and they expect a higher decline next year as the reservoir behaves. On capital allocation they listed priorities: cash dividend first, reinvestment second, a strong balance sheet third, and share buybacks as the flexible item, noting the net cash position of $24 billion is high and they will actively manage it while keeping a solid balance sheet.
"When it comes to the net cash position of $24 billion yes, it is a high number." — Torgrim Reitan (CFO)
European gas winter outlook and M&A
Q (Alejandro Vigil · Santander): He asked for the outlook for the European gas market this winter and whether the company sees M&A opportunities given the gap between European and U.S. gas prices.
A: Management said European prices are high (above $30 per MB 2 and well above $90 per megawatt hour), storage is low at 73%, El Nino is already priced in, Asian LNG demand remains solid, and LNG flows are limited by the strait risks. They said 70% of their gas exposure is on a day-ahead basis. On M&A they said it is part of the strategy, will follow the June strategy, and they will stay active in transactions aligned with that strategy.
"So the prices in Europe are high, above $30 per MB 2 and well above $90 per megawatt hour." — Torgrim Reitan (CFO)
Norway oil premiums and Empire Wind timing
Q (Michele Della Vigna · Goldman Sachs): He asked about current crude price premiums for Norway versus Brent/dated markets and for an update on Empire Wind start-up and the timing of the tax assets.
A: Management said Norwegian oils sell into Europe on dated contracts and often receive premiums (examples: Johan Sverdrup about $2 premium to Brent, Johan Castberg about $8 premium). On Empire Wind they said the project is 80% complete, they expect first power in the first half of next year and $2 billion of investment tax credits to be realized in 2027 with the remainder in 2028.
"We are now 80% complete on Empire Wind." — Torgrim Reitan (CFO)
Downstream exposure and demand risk
Q (Teodor Sveen Nilsen · Sparebanken Markets): He asked whether the company wants more downstream exposure in Europe and how they view demand destruction risk from high TTF gas prices.
A: Management said they will not move into end-user activities but are interested in portfolio-level opportunities across power and natural gas and will be cautious in expanding. On demand risk they said they monitor it closely but also see growing appetite for long-term gas contracts and that natural gas is viewed as an energy security element by states.
"However, we are sort of clearly interested in opportunities that can create value on a portfolio level in the company across power and natural gas." — Torgrim Reitan (CFO)
MMP result drivers and Tanzania update
Q (Martijn Rats · Morgan Stanley): He asked why the MMP segment result components looked confusing (negative crude/products but large ‘other’) and whether Tanzania LNG is on the radar.
A: Management said the negative showing in crude products and liquids was driven by shipping derivatives tied to their fleet swap from long-term TC contracts to floating, while the underlying crude business did well. On Tanzania they said there are no new news, it remains a long-term optionality and has not been included in their plans or guidance.
"The reason why they are showing negative results is related to shipping derivatives." — Torgrim Reitan (CFO)
New exploration acres and Namibia well plans
Q (Fergus · Redburn): He asked for details on the new acreage in Brazil, Angola and Namibia and the near-term exploration plans, and what remains to reach FID on Bay du Nord with Shell joining.
A: Management said they added two exploration licenses in Brazil (Ruby and Rudok Crucita, 100% and 70% positions, both operated). In Namibia they plan to spud a well in fourth quarter of this year. On Bay du Nord they said Shell joining does not stop progress and they remain on track for an early-2027 final investment decision.
"The plan is to spud that well during fourth quarter, in the quarter we are in." — Torgrim Reitan (CFO)
Bay du Nord breakeven and partnerships
Q (Vidar Lyngvær · Danske Bank): He asked what breakeven or CapEx range is needed to take FID and whether the consortium is seeking more partners.
A: Management said they have not issued any breakevens or CapEx range; they have worked the project and costs have come down but more work remains. On partnerships they said things are going well and there is no intention to change that at this stage.
"We have not sort of issued any sort of breakevens or CapEx range." — Torgrim Reitan (CFO)
Canada project scope and Rosebank read-through
Q (Jason Gabelman · TD Cowen): He asked whether changed fiscal terms in Canada change Bay du Nord’s scope or expansion options and whether the Jackdaw approval gives any read-through to Rosebank or distributions from the Adura JV.
A: Management said they will not change the Bay du Nord concept and are proceeding to final investment decision as planned; the area has tie-in opportunities and prospectivity around the core development. On Rosebank they expect a positive decision and said the field is on schedule to start production in the first half of next year.
"We are on our way to a final investment decision, and we will deliver that." — Torgrim Reitan (CFO)
Production sustainability and capital priorities
Q (ODDO): He asked how sustainable production growth is beyond 2026 and how the company weighs organic investment, M&A and buybacks given the strong balance sheet.
A: Management said 2026 is an extraordinary year with many ramp-ups but 2027 will still be higher than 2025 and fits the company’s growth path to 2030. On capital allocation they restated the priority order: cash dividend first, reinvestment (around $12 billion) second, a solid balance sheet third, and share buybacks as the flexible tool; M&A will remain part of the approach.
"2027 is sort of a part of the production growth all the way to 2030." — Torgrim Reitan (CFO)
Faster Norway project delivery
Q (Matt Lofting · JPMorgan): He asked if the company can accelerate asset developments in Norway and whether there are further opportunities to use extra cash flow to speed projects.
A: Management said they are stepping up investments under the NCS 2035 program, which aims to cut time from discovery to production by 50% and reduce development cost by 50%. They said the program is run steadily and cannot be adjusted quickly to price swings, and it will deliver steady production to 2030.
"Clearly, we are stepping up our investments, I mean, to sort of the program that we call NCS 2035, where we now sort of reduce the time from discovery to production with 50%." — Torgrim Reitan (CFO)
Why buy a US power plant
Q (Alastair Syme · Citi): He asked why the Lackawanna acquisition was prioritized and how the opportunity arose compared with other options.
A: Management said they have long looked for ways to extract more value from their U.S. gas position and see added value at the intersection of gas and power markets. They said the Lackawanna deal pairs complementary assets and skills and that the partner operating the plant is a strong U.S. operator.
"And then we do see that sort of there is more value to be had in the intersection between the gas markets and the power markets." — Torgrim Reitan (CFO)
How buybacks will rise with higher prices
Q (Paul Redman · BNP Paribas): He asked whether upside to buybacks above $80 per barrel and high TTF would be tied to a percentage of cash flow or another basis, and also queried the $29 billion CFFO comment.
A: Management said they will not use a fixed percentage of cash flow operations for buybacks. They repeated the framework: within normal bands the approach is fairly linear, above $80 they can increase buybacks but it will not be a linear step and they want to avoid being too cyclical; for the $29 billion CFFO number they suggested IR can follow up for timing differences.
"So we are not using a percentage of cash flow operations." — Torgrim Reitan (CFO)
Special dividend and safety data
Q (Naisheng Cui · Barclays): He asked whether a special dividend is ruled out for 2027 and asked about the safety data this quarter and any common issues.
A: Management said share buyback is the flexible part of the capital distribution and implied incremental distribution will come via buybacks rather than a special dividend. On safety they said there were no incidents with major accident potential this quarter, and long-term serious incident frequency has fallen from 6 in 2001 to 0.25 now.
"Share buyback is going to be the flexible part of the capital distribution." — Torgrim Reitan (CFO)
Competitive edge in US power plants
Q (Jung · ABG Sundal Collier): He asked what Equinor’s competitive advantages are when owning gas-fired power plants onshore in the U.S. versus other players.
A: Management said advantages start with their gas position in the U.S. Northeast, a large trading and marketing operation out of Stanford, and a strong balance sheet as a long-term partner. They said these strengths help capture margins at the intersection of gas and power and serve customers like data centers investing in energy solutions.
"Second point, we have a very large trading and marketing operation out of Stanford." — Torgrim Reitan (CFO)