Oct 21, 2026 earnings call — Occupancy gains and 2027 rent outlook
Third quarter normalized FFO was $0.79 per share, with normalized FFO growth of 4.6% for the quarter.
Revenue $0.4B (est $0.4B) · EPS $0.45 (est $0.51)
Key quotes
"Our communities have a long track record of sustaining high occupancy levels with 50% of our communities more than 98% occupied for an extended period."
"Full year guidance assumes core MH rent growth in the range of 5.4%-6%."
"I think when we think about capital allocation to the extent that there is a transaction of interest, that would be accretive, we would certainly want to pursue that, and our team is pursuing those on a regular basis."
Analyst Q&A 15
Fourth-quarter RV guidance change
Q (Jana Galan · BofA): Analyst asked why the RV outlook for 4Q was lowered despite a strong 3Q, and whether the recent Florida hurricane had any impact.
A: Management said the hurricane had no impact. They explained the business is moving from summer into winter and they adjusted reservation pacing for the shoulder period to match expectations.
"With respect to the guidance update, Jana, first, there was no impact from the recent hurricane." — Paul Seavey (CFO)
Market vs in-place MH rents
Q (Jamie Feldman · Wells Fargo): Analyst asked about the spread between market rent on turnover and in-place rent and how that could lift the 5.1% MH growth guide for next year.
A: Management said new resident mark-to-market increases are running about 12%. They also said the 5.1% assumption did not include incremental occupancy or mark-to-market turnover, and suggested using prior quarterly trends as a model guide.
"What we're seeing on mark-to-markets for new residents coming in is a 12% increase." — Patrick Waite (COO)
Why MH growth guide is 5.1%
Q (Brad Heffern · RBC): Analyst asked why the 5.1% MH rate growth guide didn't rise given higher CPI and COLA.
A: Management described lease composition: about half are market-based, a quarter are rent-control or CPI-based, and a quarter are long-term Florida agreements. They said many CPI or rent-control leases have floors already captured in the 2026 baseline, and market increases across bands are fairly narrow.
"50% of our leases are market-based leases." — Patrick Waite (COO)
Are 2027 figures final guidance?
Q (Eric Wolfe · Citi): Analyst asked if the 2027 figures are base rent income growth and whether the methodology changed because the company released estimates earlier than usual.
A: Management said they are sharing early views, not final budget guidance, and described the notice timing used to build assumptions. They clarified the 2027 rent growth assumptions come from those notices and mid-year 2026 increases and exclude incremental sites and mark-to-market turnover.
"For the annual RV customers, those rent increases are set for 95% of the customers by October, and those increases take effect at the beginning of the winter and then the future summer season." — Paul Seavey (CFO)
Expense growth drivers
Q (Steve Sakwa · Evercore): Analyst asked whether expense trends this year include one-time items and how to think about expense build for next year.
A: Management said about two thirds of expenses are utilities, maintenance and payroll, which tend to track CPI, while the remaining third is mainly real estate taxes and insurance. They noted some insurance market softening and past success on tax appeals, and will consider these factors in next year's budget.
"I think that just overall, as we think about our expense structure, 2/3 are utilities, R&M, and payroll." — Patrick Waite (COO)
Why RV guidance fell for 4Q
Q (John Kim · BMO): Analyst asked what changed to cause the assumed roughly 7% seasonal/transient decline in 4Q versus prior expectations, and whether outreach to winter guests had been effective.
A: Management said prior assumptions for flat revenue covered the latter half of the year and included some expected recovery that did not materialize. They noted the early start to the winter season did not produce the assumed recovery.
"We had some assumption for some recovery that we didn't realize in terms of the early start to the winter season." — Patrick Waite (COO)
Which bookings are weak and Canada trends
Q (Jason Wayne · Barclays): Analyst asked how much of the 4Q cut is transient versus seasonal, which markets drive the weakness, and how Canadian bookings trended.
A: Management said the weakness is largely seasonal, driven by a lack of improvement in reservation pace as the season started. They noted seasonal guests typically return each year and property teams are reaching out, hoping some late bookers will convert over time.
"Yeah, it's largely driven by the seasonal business, which is carrying through as we're starting up the summer season." — Patrick Waite (COO)
Why RV annual growth is lower
Q (Michael Goldsmith · UBS): Analyst asked about annual RV renewals and whether the lower 4.7% reflects a strategy to retain customers or a loss of pricing power.
A: Management said they increased occupancy year-over-year and that they set RV rate recommendations using competitive reviews like MH. They also said the company is coming off several years of very robust rate growth, so some moderation is expected.
"We are coming off of several years of very robust rate growth." — Patrick Waite (COO)
Capital allocation priorities
Q (Mike · Mizuho): Analyst asked how management ranks uses of capital: site expansion, buybacks, or acquisitions, and requested cap rates.
A: Management said acquisition interest exists but owners often prefer to hold assets, so transaction activity is muted and ownership fragmented. They said if an accretive transaction is available they would pursue it, with expansion and development being the next priority for capital deployment.
"I think when we think about capital allocation to the extent that there is a transaction of interest, that would be accretive, we would certainly want to pursue that, and our team is pursuing those on a regular basis." — Marguerite Nader (CEO·CHAIR)
Annual retention and conversions
Q (John Pawlowski · Green Street): Analyst asked whether 2027 will see higher or lower annual retention versus 2026, and whether transient-to-annual conversions will be higher or lower.
A: Management said attrition has improved versus last year and that annual base growth through conversions remains robust. They reported that year-to-date about 14% of annual sales and 7% of new Thousand Trails memberships were conversions from seasonal or transient customers.
"year-to-date, about 14% of our annual sales and 7% of our new Thousand Trails memberships were conversions from our seasonal and transient customers." — Patrick Waite (COO)
Does RV 2027 include occupancy growth?
Q (Jesse Lederman · Zelman): Analyst asked if the RV 2027 preliminary figure is like-for-like or includes new annual sites, and asked for drivers behind the step-down in expense guidance.
A: Management confirmed the RV number excludes occupancy growth for 2027. They said third-quarter core expenses were higher mainly due to utility usage and repairs, and the improved full-year expense guidance is primarily due to lower-than-expected preliminary Florida real estate tax notices.
"That is primarily the result of our expectations for Florida real estate taxes." — Paul Seavey (CFO)
Conversion pipeline strength
Q (Adam Kramer · Morgan Stanley): Analyst asked about the pace of annual site conversions this quarter and whether the conversion pipeline can offset transient volatility.
A: Management reiterated focus on growing the sticky annual revenue and said conversion trends are consistent with past levels. They reported conversions year-to-date of about 14% for annuals and about 7% for seasonal/transient into Thousand Trails, and emphasized engaging on-site guests to drive more conversions.
"the conversions year-to-date are about 14% for annuals, meaning 14% of those sales were to current customers, seasonal or transients, and that is about 7% for seasonal and transient moving into our Thousand Trails platform." — Patrick Waite (COO)
Thousand Trails membership and pricing
Q (John Kim · BMO): Analyst asked why transient came in lower than projected, and how membership count can fall while membership revenue rises—how much more can rates be raised?
A: Management said Thousand Trails has about 107,000+ members and that they raised entry pricing plus introduced an upgrade program, which increased dues and sold well. They said about half of memberships sell online and the upgrade product is easier and more cost-effective to sell, driving higher dues revenue despite lower volume.
"That has been really well received, and I think we will continue to see an increase in that activity, and that is the driver of that dues-based increase." — Marguerite Nader (CEO·CHAIR)
Are preliminary increases the noticed ones?
Q (Nick Joseph · Citi): Analyst asked what the preliminary MH and RV rate increases are and whether they are comparable to prior-year disclosures.
A: Management said the current assumptions are based only on increases that have been noticed and do not include potential occupancy or mark-to-market impacts. They noted prior indications were based on a subset (50%) of notices and that they will provide more clarity in January; also clarified the RV figure does not include marina.
"the current assumption that we have is based on everything that has been noticed without impact for the potential occupancy or mark-to-market." — Patrick Waite (COO)
Long-term fit and Road to Housing
Q (Jamie Feldman · Wells Fargo): Analyst asked how ELS fits into the broader housing landscape, including the Road to Housing Act and 3D-printed homes—opportunities or risks long term.
A: Management said 3D-printed homes are very different from their communities and they focus on offering homes plus a lifestyle and sense of community at an attractive price. They also said Road to Housing may spur HUD innovation but rulemaking and state interpretations will play out over the next few years.
"But what really sets ELS apart from all the offerings that you mentioned and that I've mentioned is that we're not simply offering the housing." — Marguerite Nader (CEO·CHAIR)